Only 53 shopping days until Selection Sunday and some of the scenarios would seem to jar the college basketball landscape as we’ve come to know it. To be sure, the season is still deep in the maybe or maybe not stage, but consider these possibilities come March 17:
Gonzaga might not make it.
The 13-5 Zags are living a very strange existence — for them, anyway — seeing their name mentioned in the same sentence as the word bubble. The last time they missed March was 1998, when there were only nine teams in the ACC, Connecticut had never been to the Final Four and Tom Izzo was in only his third season at Michigan State. He didn’t hate Twitter back then because it hadn’t been invented yet. Gonzaga is still No. 29 in the latest NCAA NET rankings and may yet restore natural order. An absolutely critical day is Feb. 10 at Kentucky.
Only six teams from the Big Ten might make it.
That would include Nebraska and Northwestern but probably not Michigan, Ohio State, Iowa or Indiana. Strange sounding, is it not? Nebraska hasn’t gotten in since 2014, and a bid would give the Cornhuskers a chance to fill a rather nagging void. They are 0-7 all-time in the NCAA tournament and the only power league team never to win a game. Meanwhile, an Indiana miss would be the fifth in the past seven tournaments. A very unbecoming and conspicuous number for a purported blueblood.
Only three teams from the ACC might be included.
Can that be possible? What in the name of Mike Krzyzewski is going on here? The bracketology folks all have North Carolina, Duke and Clemson but currently that's where it stops. If nobody makes a late push — we’re especially looking at you, Wake Forest — and the league indeed gets only three bids, it would be the smallest ACC contingent in more than two decades. The league has averaged more than six teams in the past 14 tournaments.
UCLA and USC probably won’t make it.
Talk about killing the mood for the Pac-12 going-away party. The Bruins and Trojans are each 8-11 and a combined 5-11 in the league. UCLA had a chance for relief the other night but blew a 19-point lead against Arizona. Barring a massive late-season turnaround, this will be only the fifth time in 35 years the tournament doesn’t have at least one of them.
Samford might get in.
The 17-2 Bulldogs haven’t seen the NCAA dance floor since 2000 but they’re making themselves impossible to ignore. Samford has the nation’s longest winning streak of 17 games and at 90.4, also the highest scoring average.
Louisville won’t make it.
Unless the 6-13 Cardinals hatch a miracle. From 1972 to 2019, they appeared in 37 of 48 NCAA tournaments and showed up in nine Final Fours (two vacated). But if they go bid-less for a fourth straight tournament, it’ll be the longest dry spell for the program since 1958.
Syracuse might not make it.
The Orange are 13-6 and way down at 82nd in the latest NET rankings. This would be three misses in a row. The last time that happened was 1972 and Jim Boeheim was a young head coach — of the Syracuse golf team.
South Carolina might get invited.
Look who’s 16-3 and just beat Kentucky. The Gamecocks were one happy bunch in 2017, getting to the Final Four for the first time in school history. Seven years later, the Final Four loss to Gonzaga remains their last NCAA tournament game. The four wins in that 2017 run are South Carolina’s only tournament victories in the past 50 years.
👀 ➡️ UPSET: Relive the Gamecocks' 79-62 home win over No. 6 Kentucky
McNeese might be included.
The Cowboys have missed the past 20 NCAA tournaments in a row and haven’t had a winning season since 2012. But things have changed in Lake Charles. Their last-second victory over Texas A&M-Corpus Christi after trailing by 18 points in the second half was their 12th consecutive win and puts them at 17-2 overall and 6-0 in league play for the first time in a half-century. Former LSU coach Will Wade is directing this renaissance.
Oakland might be in the field.
The 12-8 Golden Grizzlies are leading the Horizon League and if they can close the deal in the conference tournament, it would come at a most appropriate time. Oakland has been to only three NCAA tournaments in its history, the most recent 13 years ago, and all were coached by Greg Kampe. He’s still there and for this 40th season — with Boeheim’s retirement — he’s become the longest-tenured active coach at his present school in Division I. Why not March as a reward?
Princeton might make it.
To be clear, the 15-1 Tigers might get invited even if they suffer an attack of Cornell or something in the Ivy League tournament. With their shiny record, good metrics and last year’s roll to the Sweet 16, could Princeton grab an at-large bid, even with no Quad I wins? That’s asking a lot, but if it happens, there would be two Ivy League teams in the bracket. The world has never seen such a thing.
DePaul won’t get in.
Well, there are no sure things but the Blue Demons are 3-15 so you do the math. No former power has been in longer hibernation. The NCAA began seeding its tournament in 1979 and in four of the first six years, DePaul was a No. 1. Under the steady leadership of the Meyer family — first Ray, then son Joey — the Blue Demons were in 14 of 17 tournaments from 1976-92. Those days are long gone. DePaul hasn’t been in the field since 2004 and the Blue Demons have suffered mightily in the Big East, going 46-232 the past 16 years.
Indiana State might make it.
The 16-3 Sycamores share the Missouri Valley Conference lead with Drake and could shoot their way into the bracket with the best 3-point percentage in the nation. It’s been 45 years since Larry Bird took unbeaten Indiana State to the national championship game, where Michigan State and Magic Johnson were waiting to spoil the ending. The good times vanished soon after Bird became a Boston Celtic. Indiana State has won one tournament game in the 44 years since and hasn’t had a bid since 2011.
Delaware State might show up.
The 10-9 Hornets lead the MEAC. It’s not just that their only previous NCAA tournament was 19 years ago, but their record the past six years was 27-145.
Miami probably won’t make it. Neither of ‘em.
The Hurricanes from Florida are the one team from last year’s Final Four currently in serious bubble trouble, with a 12-6 record and No. 65 spot in the NET numbers. The RedHawks from Ohio were once a big reason the Mid-American Conference built a tradition of making March trouble for the big guys. Miami took out Notre Dame in 1969, defending national champion Marquette in 1978, Arizona in 1995 and went to the Sweet 16 in 1999 by upsetting Washington and Utah. In 2007, the RedHawks pushed No. 3 seed Oregon to the brink before losing 58-56, but they haven’t been back to the tournament since. At 9-10 this season, they’ll need a big second wind in the MAC tournament.
UMass Lowell, High Point, Quinnipiac and Western Illinois might make it.
The four have a couple of things in common. They all lead their leagues or are within a half-game of the top at the moment. And none of them have ever played in the NCAA tournament. Western Illinois is trying to win the Ohio Valley Conference in its first season in the league. If Quinnipiac can get through the MAAC, it would become the first school in NCAA tournament history that starts with the letter Q. Only Z would remain, and the University of Zagreb is not eligible.
Quinnipiac is currently tied at the top in the MAAC with Saint Peter’s. When it comes to shocking the college basketball landscape, you might remember the Peacocks from two years ago. Purdue and Kentucky certainly do. A No. 15 seed in the Elite Eight certainly looked different. So might the bracket in just under eight weeks.
