Predicting every at-large selection to the 2023 FCS playoffs

We're hours away from the 2023 FCS football playoff selection show. Ten automatic qualifying bids are in, but 14 at-large spots remain. Here's who I think will make the field.

Keep in mind, this is my opinion on the teams that will make it into the bracket, not the FCS football championship committee's, and I have not yet seen the bracket.

That said, let's get into the at-large picks.

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Locks

UAlbany

UAlbany tied for the CAA championship and beat the team that won the tiebreaker. The Great Danes are in and might get a seed.

Delaware

Delaware only has two FCS losses. The Blue Hens will be the CAA's fourth team in the field.

Idaho

Idaho has an FBS win and notable FCS wins over Montana State and Sacramento State. Its resume is strong enough for a seed.

Mercer

Mercer has the second-best record in the SoCon at 8-3. The Bears will make their first-ever FCS playoff appearance.

Montana State

Montana State lost the Brawl of the Wild and a shot at the No. 2 seed, but the Bobcats won't miss out on the postseason after finishing 8-3.

North Carolina Central

North Carolina Central only has one FCS loss. The Eagles are in.

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North Dakota State

The Bison haven't been as dominant as past years, but the third-best team in the MVFC almost always makes the postseason. Few teams will want to meet North Dakota State in the early rounds.

Richmond

Richmond tied for the CAA title and is on a six-game win streak. The Spiders won't miss out this postseason.

South Dakota

South Dakota is in the conversation for a top-three seed. The Coyotes will be in the playoffs.

UIW

UIW only has one FCS loss. The Cardinals are in.

FCS AQ TRACKER: See every automatic bid for the 2023 FCS playoffs 

Bubble but in

North Dakota

North Dakota is 7-4, but its 27-0 loss to Northern Iowa is glaring. However, its 49-24 win over North Dakota State stands out. That win is better than any win a team in the first four out has, and it'll get the Fighting Hawks into the bracket.

Sacramento State

Sacramento State doesn't have a ranked win at 7-4. However, the Hornets do have an FBS win to offset the hole in their resume. All of Sacramento State's losses are good losses — even its season-ending loss to UC Davis. 

Speaking of which, an FBS win and quality losses separate the Hornets from UC Davis even after Week 12's game. Those factors will ultimately get Sacramento State one of the last spots.

Southern Illinois

Southern Illinois is 7-4 with wins over a potential seed in Austin Peay and an FBS team. Is there a team on the bubble with two better wins?

Probably not. That's why the Salukis will be playing this postseason.

UT Martin

UT Martin's season-ending loss to Samford dropped it to 8-3. However, the Skyhawks only have two FCS losses. Its win over fellow bubble team Eastern Illinois keeps it afloat, and two FCS losses are less than three FCS losses — the deciding factor compared to other bubble teams.

RELATED: The case for and against 26 FCS teams for an at-large bid in the 2023 playoffs

First teams out

Chattanooga 

Chattanooga lost to Western Carolina, albeit by two points. The Mocs also finished with a worse record at 7-4 than Mercer, a team it beat. The icing on Chattanooga's missing-the-playoffs cake will be a loss to North Alabama, a team fellow bubble team UT Martin beat.

UC Davis

UC Davis put itself in the playoff conversation with a win over Sacramento State to close the season, but it won't be enough. Losses to Eastern Washington and Northern Arizona still look bad compared to other bubble teams.

See the above portion on why Sacramento State made it in the playoffs for more on why UC Davis is out.

Western Carolina

Western Carolina's season-ending loss to VMI is the difference between the Catamounts making the playoffs and the Catamounts watching the playoffs. WCU didn't send the message it needed to the committee the day before selections, and I think that'll be why it will be disappointed come selections.

Youngstown State

Youngstown State has the worst resume of the three MVFC teams on the bubble. The committee may like YSU's win over Southern Illinois in a head-to-head comparison, but the FCS playoff bubble is not that. 

Youngstown State's win against SIU is their only notable win. SIU has a win over a potential seed in Austin Peay and an FBS team, and North Dakota has a win over North Dakota State that's simply better than YSU's best win. I doubt the MVFC gets five at-large bids, so the Penguins will be at home.

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Bubble but out

Eastern Illinois

Eastern Illinois is 8-3, and while its record is better than some of the other teams on the bubble, all records are not created equally. EIU lost to UT Martin — a team also on the bubble — and a Southeast Missouri State team that wasn't that good this year.

The Panthers only have one signature win against an Illinois State team that finished behind MVFC teams on the bubble. The MVFC teams that finished ahead of Illinois State likely also push Eastern Illinois out of the playoff picture.

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Definitely out

Holy Cross

Holy Cross is 7-4 with only two FCS losses. However, the Crusaders don't have a signature win. That'll keep a team that made the quarterfinals on the outside looking in.