2024 FCS playoff bracket predictions entering the final month of the season

One month remains of FCS football and it's time for another set of bracket predictions. After previously predicting the playoff field to start October, here's how the entire 24-team playoff bracket could look now, from automatic bids to at-larges.

Before diving into the bracket, I'll explain my process for selecting the predicted field. In this bracket projection, the selected teams are NOT an indication of the FCS playoff selection committee picks, but rather these picks are my opinion, taking into consideration games played data while projecting future play through the regular season.

The predicted bracket follows the format of the FCS playoffs with 24 teams. There are 10 automatic bids this year and 14 at-large bids. Eight of these teams will be seeded and receive a first-round bye. Another eight teams will be seeded 9-16 for the first time this fall.

I seeded all 16 teams after deciding which teams would make the field. I didn't go down to the mile for regionalization of the remaining first-round teams, but instead guesstimated it to the best of my ability.

Now that that's out of the way, let's get into my 2024 FCS playoff bracket predictions.

FCS automatic bids

The Ivy, MEAC and SWAC conference champions don't get automatic bids to the FCS playoffs as their champions don't participate in the postseason tournament. That said, my predictions for the remaining conference title winners are as follows:

• Big Sky - Montana State (12-0)
• Big South-OVC - Southeast Missouri State (11-1)
• CAA - Richmond (10-2)
• MVFC - North Dakota State (11-1)
• NEC - Duquesne (9-2)
• Patriot - Holy Cross (7-5)
• Pioneer - Drake (9-1)
• SoCon - Mercer (10-2)
• Southland - UIW (10-2)
• UAC - Central Arkansas (10-2)

Big Sky

Montana State is the only undefeated FCS team that is eligible for the playoffs (sorry Dartmouth). While the Bobcats still play Sacramento State, UC Davis and Montana, only the Aggies host their game. The schedule plus a dominant on-field presence thus far doesn't make me think Montana State will falter.

Big South-OVC

Southeast Missouri State has already beat UT Martin and Tennessee State looks like the only team that can stop the Redhawks from running the table. I don't think SEMO falls to close the season, especially not after a wake-up call against Gardner-Webb.

CAA

The CAA has two undefeated teams in conference play entering November, Rhode Island and Richmond. From those two, Rhode Island plays its most difficult game on the road (at Delaware) while Richmond plays its most difficult game at home (vs. William & Mary). I think Richmond will win its contest while Rhode Island loses. That leaves Richmond atop the conference.

MVFC

North Dakota State won the Dakota Marker. The Bison shouldn't face another test until it visits South Dakota to close the season. However, I think Cam Miller will come up big in big moments yet again to win NDSU another top-10 game.

NEXT UP: Bryce Lance continues family legacy at North Dakota State

NEC

Duquesne is levels above everyone else in the NEC right now. As long as the Dukes don't play down to their competition, they'll win the conference.

Patriot

This is not the same Holy Cross team from past years, sitting at 4-5 entering November. However, the Crusaders are the only undefeated team in Patriot League play. I think Holy Cross will win the conference and find its way back into the playoffs.

Pioneer

Drake was my pick at the start of October, and they've since beaten Butler in conference play. I'm locking this one in.

SoCon

Mercer has one conference loss, so it can't afford a slip-up if it wants to win the SoCon. Luckily for the Bears, it plays its last remaining FCS opponent with a winning record at home this weekend when ETSU comes to town. I'm picking Mercer's elite defense at home to win that one and the conference title.

Southland

UIW has an undefeated Southland record and plays its toughest conference opponent, Lamar, at home. I think the Cardinals win out.

BLAST TO THE PAST: Relive Cam Ward's UIW highlights

UAC

The race for the shared automatic bid in the ASUN-WAC (informally recognized as the United Athletic Conference or UAC) will come down to the season's final week. Central Arkansas will visit Tarleton State and I think the winner takes the auto bid. I'm going with Central Arkansas here because they'll have the best player on the field on both sides of the ball whenever they are playing. In other words, I'm saying edge David Walker is better than running back Kayvon Britten, and running back ShunDerrick Powell is better than any Tarleton State defender.

Projected FCS at-large bids

• Rhode Island (10-2)
• Stony Brook (10-2)
• Villanova (9-3)
• Tarleton State (10-2)
• UT Martin (9-3)
• Chattanooga (9-3)
• South Dakota State (10-2)
• South Dakota (8-3)
• Illinois State (8-4)
• North Dakota (7-5)
• Idaho (9-3)
• Montana (9-3)
• UC Davis (9-3)
• Northern Arizona (8-4)

Conferences with multiple teams in the projected bracket

• Big Sky - 5
• MVFC - 5
• CAA - 4
• UAC - 2
• Big South-OVC - 2
• SoCon - 2

FCS TITLE GAME INFO: Date, time, TV channel, history for the 2024-25 FCS National Championship

Big Sky at-larges

I don't think Idaho will play another close game the rest of the season with Portland State, Weber State and Idaho State left on the schedule. The Vandals finish the season 9-3.

Between UC Davis and Montana, I have no idea who's going to win that game. UC Davis has been the better team thus far, but winning in Missoula is a hard ask of anyone. I'm giving Montana the slight edge right now, but I think regardless of that game's outcome, both teams lose to Montana State. Nonetheless, UC Davis and Montana will both make the playoffs as long as each wins their other games.

Don't sleep on Northern Arizona either. The Lumberjacks were previously ranked this season and currently sit 4-4. NAU's remaining schedule features Weber State, Cal Poly, Northern Colorado and Eastern Washington — all winnable games as none of the teams have a winning record. I think NAU wins out to secure a playoff spot. Northern Arizona's only FCS losses will have come to playoff teams Idaho, UIW and Montana, giving NAU the edge over other bubble teams.

CAA at-larges

The FCS Committee isn't as high on the CAA this year as in years past, as indicated by zero CAA teams in their top-10 rankings. I only see three at-large teams making it from the conference.

I already mentioned that Rhode Island will only lose one game down the stretch. With one FCS loss, the Rams are in. I don't think Stony Brook loses another game either, so the Seawolves are also in at 10-2.

Villanova closes the season with Delaware, a team that I think is better than the Wildcats. Villanova also has a bad loss to Maine on the resume. However, it's win over a Stony Brook team that'll be ranked at the end of the season and a non-conference win over Youngstown State from the MVFC will get the Wildcats into the playoffs at

MVFC at-larges

South Dakota State is the two-time defending FCS champions. After losing to North Dakota State and an overtime win over South Dakota, I think the Jackrabbits will up the ante during the remaining regular-season slate and get back to their winning ways.

South Dakota showed it can hang with the best teams in the FCS in its overtime loss to South Dakota State where the Coyotes beat themselves more often than not. Based on that performance, I think USD is a better team than North Dakota, and the Coyotes will defeat the Fighting Hawks on the road. Yet, I do have USD losing to North Dakota State to close the season, leaving the Coyotes with an 8-3 record.

Illinois State has a favorable schedule down the stretch with only one winning team left. The Redbirds are also expected to get All-American Amir Abdullah back as well, another boost to the team. I think Illinois State goes 3-1 to close the season, losing to North Dakota, and finishing with an 8-4 record.

North Dakota is my final team in the playoffs. See below for why.

BACK-TO-BACK: How South Dakota State repeated as FCS champions in 2023

Other at-larges

Tarleton State gets an at-large out of the UAC with a 10-2 record. The Texans shouldn't lose to anyone outside of Central Arkansas.

I have UT Martin running the table. The Skyhawks have two FCS losses, one to an FBS-transitioning Missouri State team and another to a top-five-level Southeast Missouri State squad in double-overtime. UT Martin also has a resume-boosting FBS win over Kennesaw State, and it currently has the 29th-best strength of schedule. The Skyhawks should be in at 9-3.

Chattanooga is rolling after starting 0-3, winning five straight games. I don't see the Mocs slowing down anytime soon, even with a trip to Western Carolina up next. After falling from grace after starting as a preseason top-10 team, Chattanooga gets into the playoffs with a 9-3 record.

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Last team in — North Dakota

North Dakota is my last team in the playoff field with a 7-5 record. As you'll see below, that record is worse than the records of my first teams out. However, North Dakota in this scenario will have better wins than all of those teams, defeating Montana and Illinois State. 

UND's loss to Youngstown State is bad, but I don't think it'll look as bad as losses to North Alabama or Towson. Combine that with North Dakota's ninth-best strength of schedule, and I think the FCS Committee will give the Fighting Hawks the final spot in this scenario.

First teams out

Abilene Christian (8-4)

• I have Abilene Christian finishing 8-4 with FCS losses to Idaho, North Alabama and Tarleton State. A win over Central Arkansas will hold weight with the playoff committee, but the loss to North Alabama is what will keep the Wildcats on the outside looking in, especially with only the No. 35 strength of schedule.

William and Mary (8-4)

• I predict William & Mary will finish with three FCS losses, losing on the road to Richmond in the season finale. A loss to Towson hurts the resume. Also, with nonconference wins over VMI, Wofford and Furman not living up to the hype and zero ranked wins in conference, the Tribe will miss the postseason.

ETSU (8-4)

• I already said I don't think ETSU beats Mercer. I also think ETSU's game with Western Carolina is a pick-em game at this point in the season. Even if ETSU wins that game, it will only have seven DI wins after playing UVA-Wise early in the season. That'll be the difference-maker for the Buccaneers.

Can an HBCU make the playoffs this year as at-larges?

To start October, my answer was I doubt it. I've changed my tune slightly as November approaches. No HBCU from the MEAC or SWAC will make the playoffs. I'd guarantee that right now in a similar fashion to my TNT Sports comrade Charles Barkley. However, I'd give Tennessee State a long shot to make the playoffs.

The Tigers will have to win out since they already have two FCS losses to North Dakota State and Tennessee Tech and don't have any standout wins to match. However, as of today, I don't see TSU beating UT Martin or Southeast Missouri State, even though both games will be at home.

2024 HBCU football: Following the 2024 HBCU football season from start to finish

Top Eight Seeds

1. Montana State
2. North Dakota State
3. South Dakota State
4. Southeast Missouri State
5. Idaho
6. South Dakota
7. Mercer 
8. Central Arkansas

COMMITTEE RANKINGS: Click or tap here for the FCS Playoff Committee Rankings

I think if Montana State goes undefeated with wins over Montana and UC Davis, that'll be enough for the committee to move the Bobcats in front of North Dakota State, even if the Bison win out, adding a win over South Dakota. 

In most years the difference between the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds isn't too big, with both seeds getting homefield throughout the playoffs. However, in 2024 it looks like South Dakota State is a looming No. 3 seed if it wins out, a dangerous threat to any team in the FCS. That increases the importance of the No. 1 seed which would avoid the Jackrabbits in the semifinals.

At the No. 4 seed, I have Southeast Missouri State. The Redhawks were ranked No. 6 in the FCS committee's top 10, and with South Dakota and UC Davis both losing games, SEMO moves up.

The battle for the No. 5 seed will be one with plenty of debate between Idaho and South Dakota in this scenario. In my eyes, it'll come down to two things. First, Idaho will be on a win streak entering the playoffs while South Dakota will have lost its final regular season game. Secondly, Idaho will have more DI wins, including an FBS win, when compared to South Dakota which had a game against Portland State canceled. The Vandals get the five seed.

At the No. 7 seed, I have Mercer, who was ranked No. 8 in the committee rankings. I don't think there's anything Mercer can do to move past most teams based on where the committee ranked them, but I do think the Bears will receive a seed.

Speaking of Bears receiving a seed, Central Arkansas gets the final bye at No. 8. At 10-2, the eighth seed was between Central Arkansas, UIW and Richmond. Central Arkansas' projected win over Tarleton State gets them the seed in this scenario, it'll be a statement win in the final week of the season.

CHANGES: What the past FCS playoffs might've looked like under 2024's new 16-seeded teams change

Remaining Seeds

For the first time, the FCS playoff committee will seed 16 teams, meaning first-round games will be played at higher seeds. Here's who I have rounding out the top 16.

9. UIW 
10. Richmond
11. Tarleton State
12. Rhode Island
13. Montana
14. UC Davis
15. Stony Brook
16. Chattanooga

UIW leads off the next set of seeds. It holds on to its ranking in the FCS Committee Rankings, but I don't think UIW has a shot at a top-eight seed based on its inevitable lack of ranked wins. Richmond follows as the CAA champion. Even with the committee not ranking a CAA team in its initial top 10, I doubt it will remain that way by the end of the season. Next, Tarleton State will earn the No. 11 seed after finishing with a 10-2 record with one loss in the FCS. The Texans rank behind the Cardinals and Spiders because they won't have a conference title.

Similarly, Rhode Island finishes with one loss against the FCS, and the difference in seeding here is Tarleton State's No. 42 strength of schedule compared with Rhode Island's No. 47 SOS. Stony Brook is another at-large team here with one FCS loss, however, its No. 62 SOS places it behind a pair of Big Sky schools at the No. 15 seed.

No. 13 seed Montana and No. 14 seed UC Davis have their order determined by head-to-head. Both schools have home wins over playoff teams that will earn them a first-round home game even with three losses.

Now it's time for the final seed. Holy Cross, North Dakota, Illinois State and Northern Arizona won't be in contention for a top-16 spot. That leaves five teams for one spot. The first team I'll eliminate is Drake. Drake will only have one FCS loss, but its best win is against Butler. Next, Villanova is eliminated with two FCS losses offsetting its win over a playoff-bound Stony Brook. 

The final three teams in contention for the No. 16 seed are Duquesne, Chattanooga and UT Martin. UT Martin's FBS win is the best win among the group, but I think one of the teams entering the playoffs on a nine-game win streak without two FCS losses will be more likely to receive a seed.

When narrowing down between Duquesne and Chattanooga it becomes a discussion of whether Duquesne, with an undefeated record against the FCS, has a better resume than Chattanooga. I think the answer to that will be no. Duquesne's best win will have come against Youngstown State and the Dukes have the 89th-best strength of schedule. Meanwhile, in Chattanooga's lone loss game to a top-10 Mercer squad, the Mocs beat ETSU and have the 25th-best SOS. That earns Chattanooga the final seed.

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Here's a look at the projected bracket one last time.