The case for and against 26 FCS teams for an at-large bid in the 2023 playoffs

The FCS playoff selection show is days away and with one game left to play, it's time to take a look at the FCS at-large bubble. Let's take a deep dive into all of the cases of teams on the edge of the playoff field.

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Guarantee-ish

First, we'll start with the five to seven at-larges that have almost a guaranteed shot — in my opinion — to earn an at-large bid to the FCS playoffs regardless of Week 12's results:

• No. 3 Montana and No. 4 Montana State
  • The winner of Montana and Montana State's game will earn the Big Sky's auto-bid. The loser will still get an at-large bid and be in the conversation for a playoff seed
• No. 5 South Dakota
  • South Dakota only has one FCS loss entering the final week of the season and has wins over four MVFC teams that will be in contention for an at-large spot. Even with a stunning loss to Western Illinois, the Coyotes are getting into the playoffs.
• No. 8 Idaho
  • Idaho likely gets an at-large bid even with a loss as the Vandals have seven wins, including an FBS win and wins over Montana State and Sacramento State.
• No. 6 Delaware and No. 15 Villanova
  • Delaware and Villanova both have one FCS loss entering the final week of the season where they play head to head. The winner of that game is in the playoffs regardless of if it earns the auto-bid or not. The loser of that game will have two FCS losses — Delaware's other loss to Elon and Villanova's other loss to UAlbany. Neither Delaware nor Villanova's losses will be egregious enough to keep it out of the playoffs.
• No. 23 UAlbany
  • UAlbany is 8-3 on the season, but two losses are to FBS opponents and one loss is to an FCS opponent, New Hampshire, by one possession. If UAlbany wins, it's in the playoffs no question. If UAlbany loses, some might question its at-large hopes but an eight FCS win team with two FCS losses and a ranked win over Villanova won't miss the playoffs. 

Conference races that could impact at-large spots

No. 12 Austin Peay

If Austin Peay wins, it gets the ASUN-WAC (UAC) auto-bid. 

If Austin Peay loses, it'll be 8-3 on the season with FCS losses to Southern Illinois and Central Arkansas. Unfortunately for the Governors, Southern Illinois is also on the FCS playoff bubble as are other teams that beat the Salukis. That'll be the reason the Governors miss the playoffs. The case for Austin Peay will be its eight FCS wins, albeit none notable.

No. 13 UT Martin

UT Martin still has a shot at the Big South-OVC auto-bid if Gardner-Webb loses and the Skyhawks win. If Gardner-Webb wins, UT Martin will be in the at-large picture. With a win, UT Martin will receive an at-large bid with only one FCS loss. With a loss, UT Martin will have two FCS losses and its best wins will be over Eastern Illinois and Tennessee State. The Skyhawks will still have a case for an at-large bid because few teams will have fewer than two FCS losses on the bubble. However, a lack of a notable win could leave UT Martin on the outside looking in.

FCS AQ TRACKER: We're tracking 2023 FCS playoffs automatic bids and AQ scenarios

No. 22 Lafayette and No. 25 Holy Cross

The Patriot League title is up for grabs between Lafayette and Holy Cross. Lafayette just needs to win against Lehigh to secure an auto-bid while Holy Cross needs some help. One of these teams will take the conference title so let's look at their at-large candidacies for the team that doesn't.

With a loss, Lafayette will have eight FCS wins and two FCS losses with its most notable win being over Holy Cross. Holy Cross is ranked and will be in the playoffs if the Leopards are in the at-large discussion, so Lafayette's case for an at-large is strong. However, weighing a Holy Cross-ranked win to an MVFC-ranked win may pale in comparison and losses to Colgate and Lehigh could stick out like a pair of sore thumbs, thereby keeping Lafayette out of the playoffs.

Holy Cross' at-large hopes depend on a win against Georgetown. A loss knocks the Crusaders out of the playoff picture. Yet with a win, Holy Cross will have seven FCS wins to two FCS losses, both coming to ranked teams in Harvard and Lafayette. The committee could look at that resume from a Holy Cross team that returns most of a team advanced to the FCS quarterfinals a year ago and love it. Or, the committee could see a Holy Cross team whose most notable win might be over Merrimack and keep the Crusaders out.

No. 14 North Carolina Central

After North Carolina Central lost to Howard, its Celebration Bowl hopes lessened. However, the Eagles can still play in the postseason via the FCS playoffs. First, NCCU must defeat a lowly Delaware State team this weekend. Without a win there, don't expect the Eagles in any postseason action.

Assuming NCCU does win, then it likely makes the FCS playoffs if it doesn't get the help it needs from Morgan State to win the MEAC. NCCU won't miss out on the playoffs with only one FCS loss. 

So, if you're keeping track, the best scenario for teams on the FCS playoff bubble is for Austin-Peay, Charleston Southern, UT Martin, Morgan State, North Carolina Central and Lafayette to win because it'll knock at least three FCS at-large candidates off of the bubble.

EVERYTHING HBCU FOOTBALL: Schedule, scores, rankings and updates for the 2023 season

Win and in

No. 10 Sacramento State

If Sacramento State defeats UC Davis, it'll be in the FCS playoffs. If the Hornets lose, things get a little more shaky, but an FBS win and a win over a playoff team in Nicholls should be enough for the Hornets to make the postseason. 

No. 11 UIW

If UIW defeats Houston Christian to finish with one FCS loss, the Cardinals will be in the playoffs as an at-large. If UIW loses, it'll likely miss the FCS playoffs as a two-FCS loss team without a notable win in sight.

No. 16 Chattanooga

If Chattanooga defeats a top-10 FBS Alabama team, the Mocs aren't just in the playoffs as an at-large, they'll get a seed. In the likely event Chattanooga loses to Alabama, the Mocs will be 7-4 with FCS losses to North Alabama, Western Carolina and Furman while its best win will be over Mercer. Chattanooga's loss to Western Carolina will hurt it in its head-to-head comparison, but a head-to-head win over Mercer could give it a leg up over the Bears if the SoCon only gets three teams in. In contrast, Mercer's eight DI wins to Chattanooga's seven DI wins could be the difference in why the Mocs are at home if the SoCon only gets three teams in.

No. 18 Western Carolina

If Western Carolina defeats a four-win VMI to close the season, it'll reach eight FCS wins and get in the playoffs. A loss to Mercer keeps WCU from being in the "guarantee-ish" category, but the Catamounts will make it in the tournament thanks to the best nonconference win (Eastern Kentucky) of all the SoCon bubble teams and the head-to-head win over Chattanooga.

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Resume set

No. 24 Mercer

Mercer is on the FCS playoff bubble, but it's already finished its schedule entering Week 12 on a bye. The Bears are 8-3 on the year with two FCS losses, both coming to ranked teams. Mercer's win over Western Carolina stands out as a notable win, which combined with eight FCS wins could be enough to get Mercer an at-large spot.

However, a case can be made against Mercer because of its nonconference schedule that featured North Alabama and Morehead State, two teams without a winning record. A weak nonconference schedule could put the Bears behind Western Carolina in the SoCon pecking order and a head-to-head loss to Chattanooga could leave Mercer on the outside looking in if only three playoff spots are granted to the SoCon.

FCS Bubble

Eastern Illinois

Case for (with win)

If Eastern Illinois closes the season with a win, it'll finish 8-3. The Panthers will have a notable nonconference win over Illinois State, a team also fighting for a spot in the postseason. Eastern Illinois also will have just two FCS losses, one- less than most teams on the bubble. While Eastern Illinois' strength of schedule might not be the best, a win over Illinois State is notable enough to be a difference-maker and get the Panthers into the postseason.

Case against (with win)

Even with an 8-3 record, Eastern Illinois will likely be behind UT Martin (who holds the head-to-head advantage) for an at-large spot. While EIU's win over Illinois State is impressive, it'll only make a difference if Illinois State wins in Week 12 too. A win over another bubble team holds more weight.

Yet, even a head-to-head win over Illinois State might not be enough because of a glaring loss to a Southeast Missouri State team that will have a losing record. Together, Eastern Illinois' resume might not be enough to offset its strength of schedule without some help across the country elsewhere.

Case against (with loss)

A three-FCS-loss Eastern Illinois team is not getting into the playoffs.

Richmond

Case for (with win)

With a win over William & Mary, Richmond will finish the season on a six-game win streak. The Spiders will have 8-3 with two FCS losses. Early season losses to Morgan State and Hampton will look bad, but there's no way the FCS committee keeps out a team that tied for the CAA title.

Case against (with loss)

With a loss, Richmond will finish the season 7-4 with three FCS losses. While seven wins will get Richmond in the conversation for one of the final spots, a lack of quality wins will keep the Spiders out. Neither Rhode Island nor Elon will be ranked at the end of the season, hurting Richmond's resume. Combine a lack of ranked wins with bad losses to Morgan State and Hampton and the Spiders won't have a shot at the playoffs.

UC Davis

Case for (with win)

If UC Davis defeats Sacramento State, the Aggies will hit the pivotal seven-win mark for the FCS playoffs. A UC Davis win gives the Aggies a ranked win that it doesn't currently have. If the Big Sky gets four teams in the playoffs, UC Davis' season-ending head-to-head win could be the difference maker between the Aggies and Sacramento State.

Case against (with win)

Even if UC Davis defeats Sacramento State, it will still only have one notable win. Losses to Eastern Washington and Northern Arizona have gotten worse over time and Sacramento State's resume likely gives the Hornets the edge despite the head-to-head matchup.

Case against (with loss)

If UC Davis loses to Sacramento State, it'll be out of the playoffs.

HISTORY: Schools with the most FCS titles | 9 winningest FCS programs all time | Championship history

FCS Bubble Missouri Valley edition

With two MVFC teams — South Dakota State and South Dakota — already locks for the playoffs, the Missouri Valley might have at least two and at most four at-large spots remaining.

MVFC games that will impact the playoff bubble:

• North Dakota State at Northern Iowa
• Indiana State at Southern Illinois
• Youngstown State at Murray State
• Illinois State at North Dakota

No. 9 North Dakota State

Case for (with win)

If North Dakota State defeats Northern Iowa to get into the playoffs, it'll finish 8-3 in the nation's best conference this year. The Bison are in the playoffs.

Case for (with loss)

If North Dakota State loses, Northern Iowa will get an at-large bid. That means teams will be competing for a fourth at-large for the MVFC. North Dakota State's past playoff resume proceeds it, and it'll be hard to ignore if things get close down to the wire. That aside, a head-to-head win over Southern Illinois should put the Salukis behind the Bison, and Youngstown State can't match NDSU's nonconference win over Central Arkansas. If Illinois State beats North Dakota it'll be hard for the committee to think the Redbirds are a better four-FCS-loss team than the Bison.

Case against (with loss)

If North Dakota State loses, Northern Iowa will get an at-large bid. That means teams will be competing for a fourth at-large for the MVFC. If North Dakota wins, the Bison are likely behind the Fighting Hawks for an at-large spot because of head-to-head. That means North Dakota State is competing for a fifth at-large from the MVFC and there may not be five spots to go around this year.

North Dakota State will have to turn to wins over Southern Illinois and Central Arkansas as resume boosters. However, a loss from SIU or UCA dampens NDSU's resume. North Dakota State's notable wins might also be less notable — even with a head-to-head win — than Southern Illinois who beat Austin Peay and an FBS team. The Bison also will have four FCS losses to Youngstown State's three. If a sixth MVFC team is chosen for the playoffs, there could be plenty of better options than North Dakota State after a loss.

The rest of the MVFC teams all are 6-4. They must win to get into the postseason.

No. 17 North Dakota

Case for (with win)

A North Dakota win knocks out another bubble team, Illinois State. The Fighting Hawks will finish the season 7-4 with a win over North Dakota State that may be the best win of any team on the bubble. With seven FCS wins, three FCS losses and a big-time win, North Dakota gets into the playoffs.

Case against (with win)

At 7-4, North Dakota will be firmly on the playoff bubble. However, a 27-0 loss to Northern Iowa could be the reason it misses the playoffs, especially if Northern Iowa defeats North Dakota State, which would in turn lessen UND's strength of schedule. North Dakota's NDSU win will still stand out, but it'll take a hit as the only ranked win on its resume. That'll hurt the Fighting Hawks when compared with teams from other conferences and it'll have UND on the outside looking in.

No. 20 Southern Illinois

Case for (with win)

A 7-4 Southern Illinois will lean on its nonconference win over Austin Peay and FBS win over Northern Illinois to offset its four FCS losses. Few teams on the bubble can match those wins and that will be the reason the Salukis make the postseason.

Case against (with win)

Even at 7-4 with an FBS win, Southern Illinois will be on the bubble. The Salukis have four FCS losses, something that most bubble teams — especially teams outside of the MVFC — don't have. Ultimately, those losses keep the Salukis out of the playoffs.

HISTORY: A complete history of every FCS win vs. FBS teams

Illinois State

Case for (with win)

A win over North Dakota will give Illinois State its first ranked win of the year. If Northern Iowa, Youngstown State and Southern Illinois lose, The Redbirds will be waiting in the wings to nab an at-large bid from the MVFC.

Case against (with win)

Illinois State already has four FCS losses. Even with a win, a four-FCS-loss team will have a hard time making the playoffs in a year when the bubble is so big. 

Northern Iowa

Case for (with win)

If Northern Iowa defeats a top-10 North Dakota State team to close the season at 7-4, it's in the playoffs. The Panthers will have wins over almost every MVFC bubble team, already beating Youngstown State, North Dakota and Illinois State. While Southern Illinois could also finish 7-4 and claim a playoff spot ahead of UNI, the Salukis have four FCS losses. The Panthers only have three. 

Youngstown State

Case for (with win)

Youngstown State is likely behind Northern Iowa (head-to-head) and North Dakota State (better record) in the FCS playoff at-large order entering Week 12. If Northern Iowa defeats North Dakota State, then that's two teams in front of the Penguins in the at-large race. Among the Remaining MVFC teams in contention for a fifth at-large, Youngstown holds a head-to-head win over Southern Illinois and Illinois State. If North Dakota wins, the Penguins likely are behind the Fighting Hawks, but for YSU's sake, it'll have to hope that doesn't happen.

If North Dakota State wins, Youngstown State won't have to have to worry about the Panthers. That means teams will be battling for the fourth at-large spot from the MVFC. With head-to-head wins over Southern Illinois and Illinois State, YSU's probability of making the playoffs increases. Even if North Dakota defeats Illinois State, it's more likely Youngstown State gets in as a fifth MVFC at-large than a sixth at-large.

Case against (with win)

Youngstown State is likely behind Northern Iowa (head-to-head) and North Dakota State (better record) in the FCS playoff at-large order entering Week 12. If Northern Iowa defeats North Dakota State, then that's two teams in front of the Penguins in the at-large race. 

If North Dakota State wins, Youngstown State won't have to have to worry about the Panthers. Yet, a North Dakota win over Illinois State still knocks Youngstown State down a spot in the at-large process. Furthermore, Southern Illinois' resume is good enough that if things get close between the Salukis and Penguins, SIU's FBS win could be the difference maker that keeps YSU out.