2023 FCS playoff bracket predictions: Teams, seeds, picks less than 1 month from selections

We are less than one month from 2023-24 FCS playoff selections — Sunday, Nov. 19. With the playoffs creeping up, it's time to predict the entire 24-team playoff field ahead of the bracket reveal.

Before diving into the bracket, I'll explain my process for selecting the predicted field. In this bracket projection, the selected teams are NOT an indication of the FCS playoff selection committee picks, but rather these picks are my opinion, taking into consideration all games through Oct. 21 while projecting future play throughout the remainder of the regular season.

The predicted bracket follows the format of the FCS playoffs, with 24 teams coming from 10 automatic bids and 14 at-large bids. Eight of these teams will be seeded and receive a first-round bye. 

The first round of the predicted FCS bracket will be regionalized, following the selection committee's effort to limit travel. Likewise, the first round will avoid any matchups featuring conference teams that have played each other. Last but not least, first-round matchups will be regionally paired with teams seeded one through eight, also in an effort to limit travel.

Now that that's out of the way, let's get into my predictions.

2023 FCS playoff bracket predictions

Click or tap here for a closer look at the bracket.

RANKINGS: See the latest FCS Rankings

FCS automatic bids

The Ivy, MEAC and SWAC conference champions don't get automatic bids to the FCS playoffs as their champions don't participate in the postseason tournament. That said, my predictions for the remaining conference title winners are as follows:

ASUN-WAC

Three teams are undefeated in conference play in the race for the shared automatic bid in the ASUN-WAC (informally recognized as the United Athletic Conference or UAC) title. Here's why I think Central Arkansas will prevail.

In Eastern Kentucky's loss to Gardner-Webb, it allowed 265 rushing yards. That doesn't give me confidence that the Colonels can beat the top rushing offense in the UAC, Central Arkansas, on the road when they play. Eastern Kentucky is out of the playoff hunt.

Austin Peay needed two overtimes to beat a 2-5 Southern Utah team, so that doesn't give me confidence in the Governors to go undefeated down the stretch with games against Eastern Kentucky and Central Arkansas. 

That leaves Central Arkansas atop the merged conference. The Bears already have a conference win over Abilene Christian, and as mentioned earlier, I think they'll defeat Eastern Kentucky. It'll all come down to a season-ending road trip to Austin Peay, but I think Central Arkansas' ability to run the ball with ShunDerrick Powell and Darius Hale will keep them on top.

Big Sky

Four Big Sky teams were ranked in the FCS playoff committee's top 10 rankings: Montana State, Montana, Idaho and Sacramento State. All four have a shot at the Big Sky Conference title, but I think Idaho will prevail.

Idaho gets Montana State at home this week and I think the Vandals have what it takes to pull off the upset in the Kibbie Dome. From there, Idaho runs the table to finish 9-2. Montana State won't lose to anyone else the rest of the season so the Bobcats will also finish 9-2. I think Sacramento State will also run the table to finish 9-2. Of course, that means Montana will lose two of its last four games to finish the season 8-3. In this scenario, Idaho has the head-to-head advantage over Montana State, so that'll get the Vandals the conference title.

TOP-10: See the FCS football committee's top 10 rankings

Big South-OVC

UT Martin and Southeast Missouri State are both undefeated in Big South-OVC play. However, UT Martin is 6-1 on the season and Southeast Missouri State is 3-4. I think UT Martin beats Southeast Missouri State when the two play head-to-head based off of SEMO's nonconference struggles. The Skyhawks run the table in the conference.

CAA

Delaware is the only undefeated team in CAA conference play right now. I don't see a team on the schedule that can give the Blue Hens a run for their money so Delaware wins the CAA with a 10-1 record.

MVFC

South Dakota State has been the clear best team in the FCS this year. It is the only FCS team with a top-five scoring offense and defense. I think the Jackrabbits run the table during the regular season, even with difficult rivalry games at South Dakota and vs. North Dakota State still on the schedule. 

FAVORITES: Why the FCS title is South Dakota State's to lose

NEC

Duquesne is 3-0 in NEC play and should be undefeated in the conference heading into a season-ending game at Merrimack. That game could decide the NEC title if Merrimack remains with one conference loss until then. At this point in the season, I'm more confident in Duquesne running the table in the NEC than I am in Merrimack pulling off the upset.

Patriot

Lafayette's big-time win over Holy Cross will be all the Leopards need to win the Patriot League title. I see three contenders for the conference title: Lafayette, Holy Cross and Fordham. Georgetown plays two of those three schools so I think they're out of the race.

Lafayette is undefeated in conference play with a head-to-head win over Holy Cross with one conference loss. Fordham has one conference loss too, but still has to play Holy Cross this week. I think Holy Cross will win the rest of its Patriot League games, while Fordham will beat Lafayette head-to-head even with the Rams finishing with two conference losses. It'll be the Leopards and Crusaders both with one loss, but Lafayette's win in Worcester gets them into the playoffs.

Pioneer

Davidson and Drake are both 4-0 in PFL play currently. However, future schedules make me think Davidson has the easier path to the conference title. Davidson doesn't play a team with a record above .500 for the rest of the season while Drake plays two such programs, Marist and Butler. An easier finish will get the Wildcats into the postseason.

SoCon

Furman has already beaten Mercer, Samford and Western Carolina. Its biggest test is a Nov. 4 road battle against Chattanooga. However, the Paladins have already beaten Samford and Western Carolina on the road, proving that their tenacious defense travels. Furman runs the table in the SoCon to earn an FCS playoff seed.

Southland

UIW hasn't been as dominant as it was last year when it made a run to the FCS semifinals, but the Cardinals still look like the best team in the Southland. I see UIW getting past both Lamar and Nicholls to return to the postseason.

🥇: Predicting the FCS Award winners entering the season's final stretch

Projected FCS at-large bids

Projected records in parentheses

ELITE: The best FCS players at every position halfway through the season

Conferences with multiple teams in the projected bracket

Big Sky at-larges

I still have Montana State losing to Idaho since the Bobcats are on the road, but Montana State won't miss the playoffs with just two FCS losses. I have Sacramento State winning out so the Hornets also get an at-large bid with two FCS losses. Montana is the fourth Big Sky team in the postseason field. However, the Grizzlies face Sacramento State and Montana State down the stretch; both are games that I have Montana losing. Nonetheless, the Grizzlies get into the playoffs with an 8-3 record.

CAA at-larges

Only two CAA teams will receive at-large bids this year, just one year after the conference received four bids last year. UAlbany will play 12 games this year and I have the Great Danes finishing with a 9-3 record with one FCS loss to get into the postseason. New Hampshire gets the second at-large bid after winning out to finish 8-3.

💤: Why UAlbany is an FCS playoff sleeper at the midseason mark

MVFC at-larges

The top of the MVFC is a clear picture thanks to South Dakota State, but below the Jackrabbits things get cloudy. I have South Dakota as the second-best school of the group, finishing with just one FCS loss to the Jackrabbits and a 9-2 record overall. North Dakota State follows next with an 8-3 record after it loses to all of the Dakota schools this year. Then I forecast a handful of 7-4 teams in the MVFC.

Southern Illinois gets an at-large because its FBS win will separate it from the pack, as will nonconference wins over Austin Peay and Southeast Missouri State. Northern Iowa has head-to-head wins over Youngstown State and North Dakota. I think both of those wins will get the Panthers an at-large bid before any of the remaining MVFC teams.

The final MVFC at-large bid goes to North Dakota. The Fighting Hawks have a dominant win over North Dakota State that few other at-large candidates can match. That win will ultimately be the reason it gets into the playoffs with a 7-4 record.

MVFC: South Dakota spoils No. 2 North Dakota State's Homecoming with upset

SoCon at-larges

Chattanooga has just two FCS games left on its schedule against VMI and Furman. Assuming the Mocs go 1-1 with a loss to the Paladins, they'll be in the playoffs with a projected 7-4 record.

Western Carolina just picked up its first FCS loss last week to Furman, but the Catamounts are still in position for a playoff spot. Its biggest test comes against Mercer, but I think Western Carolina wins a game with all signs pointing to a shootout. That'll have the Catamounts in the playoffs with a 9-2 record. Even if Western Carolina loses to Mercer, a nonconference win over Eastern Kentucky likely still gets them in the playoffs.

Other at-larges

Tennessee State is in a fantastic position to make the FCS playoffs for the first time since 2013. The Tigers are currently 5-2 and play just one team with a winning record left on its schedule. If Tennessee State wins out, it'll have just one FCS loss in its 9-2 record. That's good enough to get into the playoffs.

EVERYTHING HBCU FOOTBALL: Schedule, scores, rankings and updates for the 2023 season

Last team in

Austin Peay is my last team in as an at-large with an 8-3 record. I have the Governors losing to Central Arkansas to close the season with two FCS losses. Austin Peay won't have a ranked win come season's end, with a nonconference loss to Southern Illinois on its schedule. However, none of the other teams in contention for the final at-large bid have a notable ranked win either, so the Governors get in thanks to having the best FCS win-to-FCS loss ratio among the group.

First four out

Projected records in parentheses

1. William & Mary (7-4)

William & Mary has lost three straight games and has little margin for error during the final four weeks. That error will come during a road trip to UAlbany, where William & Mary's offensive struggles will hurt them. In a battle between two of the better defenses in the CAA, I'll take UAlbany's Reese Poffenbarger over William & Mary's Darius Wilson down the stretch. With its fourth loss, William & Mary's most notable win would be Campbell or Richmond. I don't think that'll be enough to surpass Austin Peay for the final spot.

2. Holy Cross (7-4)

Holy Cross is currently 4-3 and while it finishes the rest of its FCS schedule undefeated, it still has to play an FBS opponent in Army. A win over Army and the Crusaders are in the postseason, but I don't know if this year's Holy Cross team can pull off that upset. Moreover, Holy Cross won't have any ranked wins this year and will finish the year with just seven total FCS wins. That's not enough in what figures to be a close call for the final at-large spots.

3. Mercer (7-4)

Mercer has to beat Western Carolina for a shot at the playoffs. Without a win there, Mercer's best win on its resume would be North Alabama or potentially Samford. A lack of a signature win will keep Mercer still searching for its first-ever playoff berth. 

4. Youngstown State (7-4)

I project Youngstown State to finish with a 7-4 record to end the season after winning three of its last four games with a loss to South Dakota State. The Penguins miss out on the final of five MVFC at-large spots because I don't foresee a world in which the FCS playoff committee takes six at-larges from one conference. It comes down to resumes between Youngstown State and North Dakota, in a rare case where both schools lost to the same FCS opponents. I think North Dakota's win over North Dakota State looks better than Youngstown State's win over Southern Illinois, so the Penguins miss out on the postseason.

🔮 PAST BRACKET PREDICTIONS: Preseason predictions | Post-September predictions

Other Projected 7-4 teams to miss out

• UC Davis
  • I have UC Davis losing its season finale to Sacramento State, a team it hasn't beaten since 2018. That leaves the Aggies without a signature win and on the outside looking in for the playoffs.
• Villanova
  • Villanova is 5-2 right now, but I see the Wildcats losing to New Hampshire on the road and to a Delaware team that looks better in every phase at this point of the season. After losing two of its last four games, the Wildcats lack the momentum to impress for an at-large spot.
• Richmond
  • Richmond has won three straight games after a 2-3 start to the season, but the Spiders and freshman quarterback Camden Coleman haven't faced a defense with the talent William & Mary has. A road loss to close the season keeps Richmond out of the playoffs.

UP NEXT: 5 potential first-time FCS champions

Seeds

1. South Dakota State
2. Furman
3. Idaho
4. Montana State
5. Delaware
6. Sacramento State
7. South Dakota
8. Western Carolina

South Dakota State is the top overall seed after finishing undefeated and Furman gets the No. 2 seed after winning out, thanks to its initial No. 3 ranking in the committee's in-season top-10. 

Big Sky champion Idaho comes in at No. 3 in front of No. 4 Montana State thanks to a head-to-head win. Both schools come in ahead of Delaware at No. 5. The committee rankings had Montana State three spots ahead of Delaware, even though the Blue Hens are undefeated against the FCS and Montana State isn't. That told me that the committee valued the teams Montana State played more than Delaware's foes, so the two Big Sky schools come in the top four.

Two 9-2 programs, No. 6 Sacramento State and No. 7 South Dakota come in next. The Hornets have an FBS win that gives them a slight edge over the Coyotes.

The battle for the final seed comes down to a 9-2 Western Carolina, 10-1 UIW and a 10-1 UT Martin. UT Martin wasn't above UIW in the committee rankings so I don't think the Skyhawks can do anything to change the committee's mind if both schools win out. Similarly, if Western Carolina wins out, I don't see the committee dropping the Catamounts below the Cardinals, even with the Cardinals being conference champions.

UPSETS: See every FCS-over-FBS upset | Here's the FCS blueprint to beating a ranked FBS team

Predicted first-round pairings

Here are the first-round pairings with second-round opponents.