Predicting the FCS Award winners entering the season's final stretch

Every year, the top offensive, defensive and freshman players in the FCS win the Walter Payton, Buck Buchanan and Jerry Rice Awards, respectively. With five weeks to go in the 2023 season, athletes are separating themselves from the pack in the chase for a spot in the FCS history books. Here are the players I think will win each FCS award entering Week 8.

Walter Payton Award

Eighteen of the last 19 Walter Payton Award winners have been quarterbacks. Has there been a spectacular non-quarterback offensive player this year? Yes. Players like Ty James (Mercer), Jalen Coker (Holy Cross), Desmond Reid (Western Carolina), Chedon James (Idaho State) and ShunDerrick Powell (Central Arkansas) all come to mind. However, the Walter Payton Award has become a quarterback-based award, so I'll stick with the trend with this prediction.

Top Contenders

The top contenders for this year's Walter Payton Award right now are the same quarterbacks who lead the country in passing efficiency after Week 7.

Quarterbacks Mark Gronowski, Cole Gonzales, Matthew Sluka and Aidan Bouman control their destiny in the Walter Payton Award race. Mark Gronowski leads South Dakota State, the best team in the country. He's added six rushing touchdowns to the numbers you see above, and while his passing yardage numbers might not jump off the screen, the Jackrabbits are undefeated. Cole Gonzales leads the biggest surprise in the FCS year in Western Carolina. The Catamounts have the nation's leading offense with 531.8 yards per game, and their 41.3 points per game are the fourth-most. Matthew Sluka is the best dual-threat option among the four quarterbacks, adding 570 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns for a Holy Cross team poised to run through the Patriot League again. Aidan Bouman rounds out the quarterbacks after leading South Dakota to an undefeated start against FCS competition through six games, including an upset over North Dakota State. 

"Can't be satisfied" interviewed QB after his win against No. 2 North Dakota State

— NCAA FCS Football (@NCAA_FCS)

🔮: FCS playoff predictions after one month

So, who do I think will win the award?

I'll go with Mark Gronowski as the 2023 Walter Payton Award winner. He's the safest pick of the bunch. I think voters are smart enough to recognize that a quarterback for a team with a 30-point average margin of victory won't have as gaudy passing stats as the other quarterbacks. Also, if Gronowski leads South Dakota State to an undefeated finish, I think it'll hold more weight over a quarterback like Sluka or Bouman, the latter of which Gronowski would have beat head-to-head.

I will hedge by saying if Cole Gonzales or Aidan Bouman run the table the rest of the way, doing so should make either the favorite and winner of the Walter Payton Award, given the lack of their team's talent compared to South Dakota State.

Winner: South Dakota State quarterback Mark Gronowski

MORE: Ranking the top 20 HBCU offensive stars in the 2023 season — so far

Buck Buchanan Award

Five of the last seven Buck Buchanan Award winners have been edge players, including each of the last three winners. As with the Walter Payton Award, I won't buck the trend, even with a stand-up linebacker like Jacob Dobbs worthy of consideration.

Top contenders

To find out the top contenders for the Buck Buchanan Award, look at the nation's leaders in sacks and tackles for loss since those are the most high-impact plays an edge defender can make.

The clear choice here is UAlbany defensive end Anton Juncaj. Juncaj is my prediction for the Buck Buchanan Award right now because he currently leads the FCS with nine sacks and 14 tackles for loss. Everyone else has to catch up with Juncaj AND hope he slows down. While other players like Illinois State's Amir Abdullah, William & Mary's John Pius — 2022's runner-up — and Nate Lynn, UIW's Steven Parker and even Juncaj's teammate AJ Simon could make a push for the Buchanan, the award is currently Juncaj's to lose.

Winner: UAlbany defensive end Anton Juncaj

💤: Why UAlbany is an FCS playoff sleeper at the midseason mark

Jerry Rice Award

The initial iteration of the Jerry Rice Award listed among the best this season so far. It's more likely than not that the 2023 winner of the Rice Award will come from this list.

Top contenders

• QB Camden Coleman | Richmond
• RB Eli Gillman | Montana
• DB Syeed Gibbs | Rhode Island
• DB Alex McLaughlin | Northern 

To start, Syeed Gibbs' three interceptions and Alex McLaughlin's 57 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, two interceptions and overall stat-stuffing effort are impressive. But only one defensive player has ever won the Jerry Rice Award. That leaves Richmond quarterback Camden Coleman and Montana running back Eli Gillman in a possible two-man race.

Gillman leads all FCS freshmen with 508 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns. He's running for a Montana team ranked in the top 10 nationally. Meanwhile, Coleman has played in just three games this year, only starting two. After finally getting a shot after Richmond began the season with terrible quarterback play, the true freshman has dazzled. In his first start against Maine, Coleman threw six touchdowns. In three games, Coleman has completed 65 percent of his passes for 783 yards, 10 touchdowns and five interceptions. 

ELITE: The best FCS players at every position halfway through the season

Between Gillman and Coleman, I predict Eli Gillman will win the Jerry Rice Award. For better or worse, Montana will always have the eyes of the FCS, giving Gillman a spotlight to shine for the rest of the season. The Grizzlies will likely be a playoff team if Gillman has continued success because he's becoming a focal point of the offense. While Camden Coleman could make a run at the award, I think if Richmond is out of the playoff picture, it'll hurt his case.

Winner: Montana running back Eli Gillman