Comparing preseason All-American teams to final results

The first month of the college basketball season is almost in the rear view mirror and the early returns on many prognosticators' preseason All-American selections are promising, for the most part. Michigan State sophomore forward Miles Bridges, who seemed to be the consensus favorite in the preseason to win national player of the year, is averaging 15.2 points, 6.8 rebounds and 2.0 blocks per game. But how often do college basketball preseason predictions live up to expectations?

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It may come as a surprise that in three of the last four seasons, the leading preseason national player of the year candidates haven't finished the season as AP First Team All-Americans, let alone national player of the year.

Here's a breakdown of the last four seasons of preseason All-American and national player of the year selections, and how they compared to the final results.

2017-18

After a stellar freshman season in East Lansing, Mich., Bridges was an easy choice for preseason national player of the year following his decision to delay his professional future in favor of returning for his sophomore season. While an ankle injury has limited Bridges some this year, he's still the best player on a top-5 team, a strong combination for a national player of the year hopeful.

Of the eight preseason All-American teams examined, Bridges and Missouri freshman forward Michael Porter Jr. appeared on every one. Unfortunately, Porter Jr. is likely done for the season after undergoing back surgery. Notre Dame's Bonzie Colson and Arizona's Allonzo Trier were on five of the teams, while Villanova's Jalen Brunson and Duke's Grayson Allen were named four times.

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Only Athlon selected Duke freshman Marvin Bagley III, who is averaging 22.3 points and 11.3 rebounds through eight games, despite playing just 10 minutes against Michigan State after getting poked in the eye.

In the last four years, the AP All-American First Teams have featured four freshmen, two sophomores, two juniors and 12 seniors, so on average, that's one freshman, one sophomore or junior, and three seniors per year.

2016-17

Entering last season, few people outside of Lawrence, Kan., thought Frank Mason III would be a First Team All-American, let alone the national player of the year. Mason averaged 12.9 points, 4.6 assists and 4.3 rebounds as a junior, before exploding in his final season and leading the Jayhawks to another Big 12 title and 31 wins. He averaged 20.9 points, 5.2 assists, 4.2 rebounds and 1.3 steals per game, while shooting 49 percent from the field and 47 percent from three.

If someone told you the major media outlets would whiff on four of the five AP All-Americans this season, would you believe them? Who knows if that will happen but don't dismiss the possibility.

Because that's what happened last year, when Grayson Allen, Josh Hart and Dillon Brooks were consensus preseason First Team All-Americans, but only Hart finished the season with that distinction from the AP. He was flanked by UCLA's Lonzo Ball and Kansas' Frank Mason III in this hypothetical star-studded backcourt, with North Carolina's Justin Jackson and Purdue's Caleb Swanigan in the frontcourt.

2015-16

Gonzaga forward Kyle Wiltjer, who began his college career at Kentucky and won a national title with the Wildcats, and LSU then-freshman sensation Ben Simmons were the clear frontrunners to win national player of the year honors entering the 2015-16 season. SI.com listed Wiltjer and Simmons in the top tier – labeled "Frontrunners" – of player of the year candidates, in that order, and a survey of 28 ESPN analysts yielded nine votes for Simmons and six for Wiltjer. No other player received more than four votes.

Former Oklahoma sharpshooter Buddy Hield was identified by many media members two years ago as a preseason First Team All-American and he lived up to the hype, if not exceeded it, by winning the Naismith Award. Some had selected a guard from North Carolina (Marcus Paige) and a big from Kentucky (Skal Labissiere) but it turned out that a big from North Carolina (Brice Johnson) and a guard from Kentucky (Tyler Ulis) earned AP All-America First Team honors.

2014-15

Jahlil Okafor entered college in 2014 as one of the best, if not the best, freshmen in the country and several publications pegged him as the preseason national player of the year. He put up great numbers in his one season at Duke, averaging 17.3 points, 8.5 rebounds and 1.4 blocks per game while shooting 66.4 percent from the field, but he wasn't given the Naismith Award. That went to Wisconsin's Frank Kaminsky, who averaged 18.8 points, 8.2 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 1.5 blocks per game for the Badgers.

The AP All-American First Team in 2015 wasn't lacking height, as Kentucky 7-footer Willie Cauley-Stein also earned the honor. While Kaminsky and Okafor were common picks on preseason All-American lists, no one could have projected the sensational freshman season that D'Angelo Russell had at Ohio State (19.3 points, 5.7 rebounds, 5.0 assists per game), and Notre Dame's Jerian Grant finished his career on a high note after playing just 12 games as a junior.

Karl-Anthony Towns and Malcolm Brogdon were AP Second Team All-Americans and Georges Niang was a member of the Third Team, while Fred VanVleet, Stanley Johnson and Montrezl Harrell were honorable mention selections.

2013-14

Like Miles Bridges this year, Marcus Smart was a highly regarded freshman who had a productive first season in college and returned for his sophomore year, earning him preseason national player of the year honors from many media outlets. Andrew Wiggins, who was entering his freshman season at Kansas and billed as basketball's "Next big thing," was Smart's biggest competitor for the honor.

But it was Creighton senior Doug McDermott, who averaged 26.7 points and 7.0 rebounds per game in the Bluejays' first season in the Big East, who won the Naismith Award.

The 2014 AP First Team All-American team was senior-laden as McDermott and three senior guards from the American Athletic Conference earned the nod. UConn's Shabazz Napier led the Huskies to a national championship while averaging 18 points, 5.9 rebounds and 4.9 assists per game. Sean Kilpatrick carried Cincinnati offensively, averaging 20.6 points per game, and Louisville's Russ Smith recorded 18.2 points and 4.6 assists per night.

Duke's Jabari Parker was the lone underclassman named to the AP All-American First Team. He averaged 19.1 points and 8.7 rebounds per game.

There was almost a consensus among media outlets for which five players deserved preseason All-American honors. Smith, Smart, Wiggins and McDermott appeared on the five preseason lists examined from 2013, with either Michigan's Mitch McGary or Kentucky's Julius Randle claiming the fifth spot.