Andy Katz has unveiled his top 10 Final Four dark horses for the 2024-25 men’s college basketball season. Here’s a breakdown of the teams that could make surprising runs in March Madness. These teams were ranked outside Katz's top 10 from his preseason Power 37.
1. Indiana
Indiana enters the season with high expectations after a transformative offseason under coach Mike Woodson. The Hoosiers reloaded with elite talent, including Arizona transfer Oumar Ballo and standout guards Myles Rice (Washington State) and Kanaan Carlyle (Stanford). Returning players Malik Reneau, Mackenzie Mgbako and Trey Galloway give Indiana one of the Big Ten’s most versatile lineups. After finishing 19-14 last season and missing the NCAA tournament, the Hoosiers are poised for a turnaround.
2. Arkansas
The Razorbacks are set to bounce back after a challenging 2023-24 season where Arkansas finished 16-17 overall and struggled in SEC play (6-12). With John Calipari now leading the program, Arkansas has retooled its roster and could emerge as a Final Four threat with the addition of transfers like Johnell Davis (Florida Atlantic) and Jonas Aidoo (Tennessee), among others.
"A team that plays really fast, it shares the ball, and is rough." 💪
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB)
John Calipari shares with what he anticipates the identity of his Arkansas squad to be heading into the 2024-25 season 🗣️
3. Kentucky
Kentucky enters the season under new coach Mark Pope, a former Wildcat player (1994-96) who just last season coached BYU to a 23-win season. With a mostly rebuilt roster, Kentucky’s projected starting five features Lamont Butler (San Diego State transfer) with scorers like Koby Brea (Dayton transfer) and Jaxson Robinson (BYU transfer), while big men Andrew Carr (Wake Forest) and Amari Williams (Drexel) anchor.
MORE RANKS: Katz's preseason Power 37 picks for 2024-25
4. Rutgers
Rutgers basketball heads into the campaign with high expectations and a stacked roster featuring McDonald’s All-Americans Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey. Under head coach Steve Pikiell, the Scarlet Knights will navigate an expanded Big Ten, hosting new conference opponents like UCLA and USC. Rutgers finished 15-17 last season but is aiming for a comeback year with a top-tier recruiting class and crucial returners.
5. Creighton
Creighton capped last season with a Sweet 16 appearance and a 25-10 record. Baylor Scheierman and Trey Alexander are gone, but the Bluejays should be formidable again with Ryan Kalkbrenner (17.3 points per game) back with guard Steven Ashworth. Creighton also brings in transfers Pop Isaacs (Texas Tech) and Jamiya Neal (Arizona State) for possible another March Madness run.
6. Arizona
Arizona enters with a talented roster under coach Tommy Lloyd. Despite a Sweet 16 exit last year, the Wildcats have shown consistency by winning 33, 28 and 27 games with Lloyd in charge. With a balanced mix of experienced players like Caleb Love working alongside Jaden Bradley and transfer Trey Townsend (Oakland), the Wildcats will compete in the Big 12.
7. Illinois
Illinois had a successful 2023-24 that a run to the Elite Eight with a 29-9 record and a Big Ten Tournament title. Coach Brad Underwood will have a new-look roster featuring transfers such as Ben Humrichous (Evansville) and Kylan Boswell (Arizona) plus a talented freshman class.
8. Ohio State
With a revamped roster under coach Jake Diebler, the Buckeyes will lean on veteran leadership from Bruce Thornton and key transfers like Meechie Johnson (South Carolina) and Sean Stewart (Duke). Last season’s 22-14 finish, including a deep NIT run, gives Ohio State a solid foundation. With a strong mix of experienced players and talented newcomers, Ohio State could surprise in the conference.
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9. Florida
Florida looks primed to surprise in the SEC this season. After going 24-12 and reaching the SEC tournament final, coach Todd Golden returns key players Walter Clayton Jr. and Will Richard alongside Alex Condon and Thomas Haugh. The Gators also added impact transfers like Alijah Martin (Florida Atlantic) and Rueben Chinyelu (Washington State). With a blend of returning talent and new faces, Florida’s roster depth is strong.
10. Cincinnati
Cincinnati is coming off a 22-15 season that concluded in the NIT quarterfinals. Coach Wes Miller and the Bearcats return important players like Dan Skillings Jr. and Simas Lukosius while adding transfers Dillon Mitchell (Texas) and Arrinten Page (USC). The Bearcats’ depth and balance make them a potential sleeper in the Big 12, but they’ll face a challenging schedule.
