As memorable as all NCAA women's basketball tournaments are, the surprising runs by lower seeds especially stand out. Think No. 12 Quinnipiac making the Sweet 16 in 2017, No. 11 Gonzaga reaching the Elite Eight in 2011 or No. 9 Arkansas going all the way to the 1998 Final Four.
As you think about filling out your bracket, don't forget that upsets do happen. We're here to help you on where you can start looking for Cinderella in your bracket — and how many upsets you should have on your mind.
Before we go further, we should clarify that we designated an upset as a difference of at least five seeds. So for the first round, that meant a No. 11 beating a No. 6. In the second round, that can look like a No. 10 over a No. 2. We also started with 1994, the first year the tournament had 64 teams.
Start with the No. 12 seeds
Hey, history is made to be broken. However, teams seeded Nos. 14-16 are a combined 1-348 in tournament history. Memorably, No. 16 Harvard upset No. 1 Stanford on the Cardinal's home floor in the first round of the 1998 NCAA tournament. But no 14 or 15 seed has won a tournament game. At least not yet.
Even No. 13 seeds aren't piling up success, either, sporting a 10-116 mark since 1994. That said, No. 13 Wright State did stun No. 4 Arkansas in 2021 and Marist made the Sweet 16 in 2007. But if you want your bracket to stand out from the pack with upsets, it's likely best to start picking them at the No. 12 line. Those teams have won 31 games since 1994 — that averages out to a little more than one win per year, on average. In 2023, Toledo and Florida Gulf Coast advanced to the second round. At least one No. 12 seed has won a game in eight of the last 10 tournaments.
Adding it all up, No. 13 seeds have won around 9 percent of tournament games since expansion; No. 12 seeds own a 21 percent win percentage. So unless you're feeling really lucky or confident, begin at the No. 12 line. That one seed line does seem to make a big difference.
SURPRISING RUN: The lowest seeds to advance to each round in history
Here's how many upsets you should pick
Since expansion to 64 teams for the 1994 tournament, there have been 122 upsets by teams seeded at least five seeds lower than their foe. That comes out 4.21 per year, on average.
The most in a single tournament is seven — and it's happened a couple times: 1998 and 2022. There have been seven years with six upsets across the six rounds.
As you can expect, a lot of these upsets came in the first round, when you're guaranteed six upset opportunities in each region (from No. 16 vs. No. 1 through No. 11 vs. No. 6). In total, 71 of the 122 upsets — or 58.2 percent — were in the first round. Furthermore, 35 of those 71 first round upsets, or 49.3 percent, were No. 11s beating No. 6s.
| Round | Average upsets per year | Least | Most |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 4.21 | 1 (twice) | 7 (twice) |
| First | 2.45 | 1 (eight times) | 5 (1998) |
| Second | 1.55 | 0 (four times) | 4 (2007) |
| Sweet 16 | 0.10 | 0 (26 times) | 1 (three times) |
| Elite Eight | 0.10 | 0 (26 times) | 1 (three times) |
| Final Four | 0.00 | 0 (29 times) | NEVER |
| National title | 0.00 | 0 (29 times) | NEVER |
Looking at the table above, you're probably aiming for about four upsets per year. However, note that there have been surprising runs by teams that don't make the list due to the seed difference not reaching five. Think No. 7 Washington making the Final Four in 2016 after beating No. 3 Kentucky and No. 4 Stanford.
MEN'S DATA: What the stats say about picking men's tournament upsets
So when do No. 13+ upsets happen?
Only eight teams seeded No. 13 or lower have won a first round game — seven 13s and one 16. Three of the 13 seeds even reached the Sweet 16.
Is there a common thread among these seven? Kind of.
Seven of the eight were AQs and the lone representative from their conference. The one exception was the first: 1994 Texas A&M, then of the Southwest Conference. And those Aggies got to play on their home court because of a .
Those seven AQs started the NCAA tournament with a combined record of 160-45, good for an average record of about 23-6. In other words, these teams were familiar with winning and didn't suddenly learn to win in March. But perhaps even more notable, these seven went 94-18 in conference play (83.9 percent). So these teams were, more often than not, among the best their conferences had to offer to go up against higher-seeded teams.
Most had experience in the tournament, too:
| UPSET WINNER | Tournament streak |
|---|---|
| 1998 Harvard | Third bid in a row |
| 2000 Rice | First bid in program history |
| 2004 Middle Tennessee | First bid in a run of 10 out of 11 years |
| 2005 Liberty | Ninth consecutive bid |
| 2007 Marist | Third appearance in four years during run of 10 out of 11 |
| 2012 Marist | Won a tournament game for the fourth time in six years |
| 2021 Wright State | Second bid in a row (2019, with no 2020 tournament) |
What makes any upset shocking is how unpredictable they seem to be. But if you want to try to spot the top contenders when filling out your bracket, find the AQ teams that also dominated their conference and sport a shiny record.
Fill out multiple brackets
Well, if you're unsure, why not improve your chances by filling out more than one bracket? Not sure about a No. 1 or No. 2 seed going down early, or feeling really lucky with a double-digit Cinderella? Then this is the strategy for you. Yes, two of the 2022 Elite Eight matchups were No. 1 vs. No. 2. But there was No. 10 Creighton, facing off against South Carolina. Finding the right combination of 1s and 2s with some surprises sprinkled in is easier to do the more brackets you enter.
Or maybe — just maybe — you think this is the year a No. 15 seed makes history and beats a No. 2 for the first time.
