While a handful of schools enter March jockeying for at-large consideration, most programs around the country find themselves requiring a fateful run in conference tournament play for a shot at the NCAA tournament.
With such high-stakes action unfolding over the next four days, here are four teams poised to create the most chaos in conference tournament play and have at-large hopefuls looking over their shoulders come Selection Sunday.
1. TCU
With a fully healthy roster and a flawless 14-0 start, TCU looked set for a remarkable turnaround under new head coach Mark Campbell, angling his inherited 8-23 program toward the NCAA tournament on his first attempt. But a devastating wave of injuries washed away Campbell’s brilliant overture, as starters Sedona Prince, Madison Conner and Jaden Owens all suffered long term injuries.
Another five players would miss time in the coming weeks — four more injuries paired with a personal absence — forcing the Horned Frogs to forfeit two Big 12 games and play a number of conference clashes with just six or seven scholarship players. The Horned Frogs managed just one win in their next 12 opportunities, but as TCU’s battered roster healed and as Conner made a splash re-entry to the starting lineup — the Arizona transfer scored 31 against Cincinnati on Feb. 17, her first game in over a month — the Frogs began to capture their early-season excellence.
Conner led her squad to four straight victories once she regained fitness, and the Big 12 tournament's 8-seeded Horned Frogs will continue this momentum against Oklahoma State Thursday for a shot at slaying top seed Oklahoma the following afternoon.
2. New Mexico
With UNLV’s ticket to March Madness effectively punched after a 27-2 regular-season campaign, a number of chaos agents lurk high up in the Mountain West, poised to capitalize if the Runnin’ Rebels slip off the starting block. After the Sin City crew cruised atop the conference, it was New Mexico that pulled into second with a 12-6 Mountain West record, and the Lobos look like the best candidates to knock off UNLV.
New Mexico was, after all, the only team to down the Rebels in conference play as Viane Cumber stormed into the desert and stunned UNLV 69-66, nailing a game-winning overtime three with just four seconds to play. The Lobos nearly competed a shocking season sweep at the Pit three weeks later, trailing by just one with four minutes remaining before fading late, and have paired a Quadrant 2 win at Wyoming with competitive showings against Gonzaga and Georgia Tech.
At-large hopefuls should watch the Mountain West tournament closely, for even if not New Mexico, anything other than a UNLV victory will wipe a potential bid off the board.
3. Illinois
Saddled with a 14-14 record thanks to a challenging non-conference slate and a typically grueling journey through Big Ten play, Illinois punches well above its .500 billing, enjoying a top-50 NET ranking and a number of impressive pelts.
The Fightling Illini are the only team outside the Big Ten’s top six spaces with an AP Top 25 victory, battering No. 14 Indiana from Champaign in February. Dismantling the Hoosiers capped off a fairly impressive string of results, including blowout road wins versus at-large contenders Michigan and Penn State and a thrilling home victory over Nebraska to wrap up the regular season. Illinois features the required do-it-all guard for a March run in Makira Cook, who averages 15.5 points and over four assists per game, and with the 25th most efficient offensive in America the Illini can hang in a track meet with just about anyone.
Illinois will have the chance to spoil another NCAA tournament dream, facing Maryland in the first round of the Big Ten tournament Thursday — Maryland was an 11-seed in krikya18.com correspondent Autumn Johnson’s latest projections — for a chance to shock Ohio State.
4. Cleveland State
While Cleveland State tore through Horizon League play with a 18-2 record en route to a regular-season crowd, it's Green Bay that finds themselves under at-large consideration. The Phoenix notched a pair of hugely-impressive results in non-conference play, stunning top-25 Creighton in Omaha before besting a full-strength Washington State squad in Cancun, and currently featuring among Johnson’s “Last Four In.”
The Vikings split the season series against Green Bay, falling on the road before bashing the Phoenix 86-63 back in Cleveland. The 216 squad has proven themselves fully capable of capturing the automatic bid in the conference tournament, putting tremendous pressure on the NCAA tournament selection committee to consider the Horizon League as a two-bid division.
The views on this page do not necessarily reflect the views of the NCAA or its member institutions.
