The chances of having a perfect men's NCAA tournament bracket are so small that we're talking a 1 in 120.2 billion chance. That's "b" for a billion. Well, unless you're flipping a coin for all 63 games. Then it's 1 in 9.2 quintillion.
But winning bragging rights in your Men's Bracket Challenge Game group against friends? Those odds are more in your favor. So, what does it take for that to happen? Looking at recent winners in our Men's Bracket Challenge Game, we have some answers for you. We went through all MBCG game winners since 2015 — including the three that tied for first in 2025 — to see the picks they made and how they moved to the top of the leaderboard ahead of millions of fans, friends, experts and many others.
2024 WINNER: Click or tap here for the winning 2024 MBCG bracket, named "Mr.Rene2299194"
Here are five tips we learned from looking at the MBCG winners since 2015
Here's the winning 2023 bracket for the Men's Bracket Challenge Game, named "Ncaa20239628267"
And here's a look at "Mine 1," the winning 2022 bracket:
1. It's important to win around 50 games
2015 BCG winner bradmmsmith744 correctly picked 54 games
When filling out your MBCG bracket, you have to pick winners in 63 games. The yearly MBCG victors picked the correct winner in 54, 50, 54, 51, 53, 47, 53, 49, 51 and 58 (!) games in their respective winning years. That's an average of 52 correct picks for the entire tournament. In other words, MBCG winners get 11 games wrong each year, on average.
Correct picks are worth more the later you go, so a big percentage of the incorrect games happened early for our champs, including "mjbrewer" in 2015, "Che 3" in 2016, "KELSEY 2017" in 2017, "Tenny schmidt" in 2018, "bradmmsmith744" in 2019 and "Lawdog V2" in 2021. The three brackets that tied for first in 2025 got three of their five games incorrect in the first round.
In all, the MBCG winners "lost" a combined 110 games in their brackets. Of those, 61 (55.45 percent) came in the first round — not surprising since 32 of the 63 games (50.8 percent) you have to pick are in that first round.
About those remaining losses? Thirty-three of those showed up in the second round. In other words, you're going to need to be close to perfect from the Sweet 16 on to win, particularly in the later rounds.
2. It's all about the National Championship Game
2017 BCG winner "KELSEY 2017" picked North Carolina to beat Gonzaga for the title.
It's obvious but clear.
If you rightly predict the title game teams, chances are you're looking down on almost everyone else on the leaderboard. As others come up empty on those big points late, the winners picked up clutch points for predicting finals like Virginia-Texas Tech in 2019, North Carolina-Gonzaga in 2017, Baylor-Gonzaga in 2021, Kansas-North Carolina in 2022, UConn-Purdue in 2024 and Florida-Houston in 2025.
That all sounds simple enough. But getting there is the challenge.
3 and 4. Watch your Elite Eight and then your Final Four picks
2019 winner "mjbrewer" went 8-for-8 in picking the Elite Eight teams.
Don't worry if you miss one of the No. 8 vs. No. 9 games (or two, or three...). If your Final Four and Elite Eight picks remain in the bracket, you're looking good.
All but one of the MBCG champs missed between zero and two Elite Eight teams.
Moving onto the Final Four, the MBCG winners correctly picked 38 of the 40 Final Four teams: 2018 Cinderella Loyola Chicago and 2023 Miami (Fla.) the only misses. That's where the separation happens. It's one thing to have all eight Elite Eight teams. It's another to correctly pick the winners of those Elite Eight games.
5. Don't stress about the early rounds and picking those first-round upsets — for the most part
2016 BCG winner "Tenny schmidt" missed seven games in the First Round and still won.
You're not going to get every game right (probably!). Four of the MBCG winners even got more than seven games wrong in the first round.
You don't have to pick every big upset, either. In fact, eight of the MBCG winners (including two of the three that tied for first in 2025) have had at least one "wrong" double-digit upset pick — incorrectly picking a double-digit team to advance to the second round.
Want more evidence of avoiding early-round worry? "Che 3" won the 2018 title despite picking Virginia to advance to the Elite Eight. What helped "Che 3" out is many picked the Cavaliers to go even further than that.
It's all about timing. Later games are worth more points, so dropping a game or two or seven (or more!) in the first round won't necessarily eliminate you. Hopefully, all your losses come from teams that bow out before reaching the Sweet 16.
2018 BCG winner "Che 3" won despite the massive UMBC-Virginia upset.
