The 12-5 upset is one of the most popular March Madness picks each year — and for good reason. It's happened quite a few times since the NCAA tournament field expanded in 1985. In 2024, both James Madison and Grand Canyon won as No. 12 seeds.
Here's everything you need to know about 12 seeds vs. 5 seeds in March Madness.
History of 12 vs. 5 seeds in March Madness
There have been 55 upsets by No. 12 seeds since the NCAA tournament field expanded in 1985. Going into 2025, the lower seed was 55-101, equating to a 35.26 win percentage.
Here are all of the times a 12 seed has knocked off a 5 seed.
| Year | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1985 | Kentucky def. Washington | 66-58 |
| 1986 | DePaul def. Virginia | 72-68 |
| 1987 | Wyoming def. Virginia | 64-60 |
| 1989 | DePaul def. Memphis State | 66-63 |
| 1990 | Dayton def. Illinois | 88-86 |
| 1990 | Ball State def. Oregon State | 54-53 |
| 1991 | Eastern Michigan def. Mississippi State | 76-56 |
| 1992 | New Mexico State def. DePaul | 81-73 |
| 1993 | George Washington def. New Mexico | 82-68 |
| 1994 | UW-Green Bay def. California | 61-57 |
| 1994 | Tulsa def. UCLA | 112-102 |
| 1995 | Miami (Ohio) def. Arizona | 71-62 |
| 1996 | Drexel def. Memphis | 75-63 |
| 1996 | Arkansas def. Penn State | 86-80 |
| 1997 | College of Charleston def. Maryland | 75-66 |
| 1998 | Florida State def. TCU | 96-87 |
| 1999 | Detroit def. UCLA | 56-53 |
| 1999 | Missouri State def. TCU | 96-87 |
| 2001 | Utah State def. Ohio State | 77-68 (OT) |
| 2001 | Gonzaga def. Virginia | 86-85 |
| 2002 | Tulsa def. Marquette | 71-69 |
| 2002 | Missouri def. Miami (Fla.) | 93-80 |
| 2002 | Creighton def. Florida | 83-82 (2OT) |
| 2003 | Butler def. Mississippi State | 47-46 |
| 2004 | Manhattan def. Florida | 75-60 |
| 2004 | Pacific def. Providence | 66-58 |
| 2005 | Milwaukee def. Alabama | 83-73 |
| 2006 | Montana def. Nevada | 87-79 |
| 2006 | Texas A&M def. Syracuse | 66-58 |
| 2008 | Villanova def. Clemson | 75-69 |
| 2008 | Western Kentucky def. Drake | 101-99 (OT) |
| 2009 | Wisconsin def. Florida State | 61-59 (OT) |
| 2009 | Arizona def. Utah | 84-71 |
| 2009 | Western Kentucky def. Illinois | 76-72 |
| 2010 | Cornell def. Temple | 78-65 |
| 2011 | Richmond def. Vanderbilt | 69-66 |
| 2012 | South Florida def. Temple | 58-44 |
| 2012 | VCU def. Wichita State | 62-59 |
| 2013 | Ole Miss def. Wisconsin | 57-46 |
| 2013 | California def. UNLV | 64-61 |
| 2013 | Oregon def. Oklahoma State | 68-55 |
| 2014 | Harvard def. Cincinnati | 61-57 |
| 2014 | North Dakota State def. Oklahoma | 80-75(OT) |
| 2014 | Stephen F. Austin def. VCU | 77-75 (OT) |
| 2016 | Little Rock def. Purdue | 85-83 (2OT) |
| 2016 | Yale def. Baylor | 79-75 |
| 2017 | Middle Tennessee def. Minnesota | 81-72 |
| 2019 | Liberty def. Mississippi State | 80-76 |
| 2019 | Murray State def. Marquette | 83-64 |
| 2019 | Oregon def. Wisconsin | 72-54 |
| 2021 | Oregon State def. Tennessee | 70-56 |
| 2022 | Richmond def. Iowa | 67-63 |
| 2022 | New Mexico State def. UConn | 70-63 |
| 2024 | James Madison def. Wisconsin | 72-61 |
| 2024 | Grand Canyon def. Saint Mary's | 75-66 |
Some more tidbits:
- In 33 of the last 39 tournaments, the 12 seed has won at least one first round game. The only exceptions came in 1988, 2000, 2007, 2015, 2018 and 2023.
- In 2019, three No. 12 seeds advanced to the second round: Murray State (beat Marquette), Oregon (beat Wisconsin) and Liberty (beat Mississippi State). The 12 seeds also won three games in 2013 and 2014.
- Utah State, who has been the No. 12 seed a record five times, is only 1-4 against No. 5 seeds. Its lone win came in 2001 against Ohio State.
How much more likely is a 12-5 upset than a 13-4 upset?
Thirty-three No. 13 seeds have upset No. 4 seeds since the NCAA tournament field expanded in 1985, giving them a 323-123 record all-time.
Here are all of the times a 13 seed has upset a 4.
| Year | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1985 | Navy def. LSU | 78-55 |
| 1987 | Missouri State def. Clemson | 65-60 |
| 1987 | Xavier def. Missouri | 70-69 |
| 1988 | Richmond def. Indiana | 72-69 |
| 1989 | Middle Tennessee def. Florida State | 97-83 |
| 1991 | Penn State def. UCLA | 74-69 |
| 1992 | Southwestern Louisiana def. Oklahoma | 87-83 |
| 1993 | Southern def. Georgia Tech | 93-78 |
| 1995 | Manhattan def. Oklahoma | 77-67 |
| 1996 | Princeton def. UCLA | 43-41 |
| 1998 | Valparaiso def. Ole Miss | 70-69 |
| 1999 | Oklahoma def. Arizona | 61-60 |
| 2001 | Indiana State def. Oklahoma | 70-68 |
| 2001 | Kent State def. Indiana | 77-73 |
| 2002 | UNC Wilmington def. USC | 93-89 |
| 2003 | Tulsa def. Dayton | 84-71 |
| 2005 | Vermont def. Syracuse | 60-57 |
| 2006 | Bradley def. Kansas | 77-73 |
| 2008 | Siena def. Vanderbilt | 83-62 |
| 2008 | San Diego def. UConn | 70-69 |
| 2009 | Cleveland State def. Wake Forest | 84-69 |
| 2010 | Murray State def. Vanderbilt | 66-65 |
| 2011 | Morehead State def. Louisville | 62-61 |
| 2012 | Ohio def. Michigan | 65-60 |
| 2013 | La Salle def. Kansas State | 63-61 |
| 2016 | Hawaii def. California | 77-66 |
| 2018 | Buffalo def. Arizona | 89-69 |
| 2018 | Marshall def. Wichita State | 81-75 |
| 2019 | UC Irvine def. Kansas State | 70-64 |
| 2021 | Ohio def. Virginia | 62-58 |
| 2021 | North Texas def. Purdue | 78-69 (OT) |
| 2023 | Furman def. Virginia | 68-67 |
| 2024 | Yale def. Auburn | 78-76 |
Recent highlights of 12-5 upsets
Here are some highlights from the 12-5 upsets that have happened lately.
Grand Canyon defeated Saint Mary's in 2024.
Richmond beat Iowa in 2022:
New Mexico State defeated UConn in 2022:
Oregon State topped Tennessee by 14 points in 2021:
Murray State's Ja Morant joined exclusive company in 2019, posting the ninth triple-double in NCAA tournament history as the No. 12 Racers took down No. 5 Marquette, 83-64.
Liberty, fresh off an ASUN championship, edged Mississippi State in another 2019 12-5 game.
Oregon also won big in the opening round of 2019, dismantling Wisconsin 72-54 before reaching the Sweet 16.
Little Rock shocked Purdue in 2016, eking out a 79-75 win.
