The 11-6 March Madness upset pick isn't as sexy as the 12-5, but it's had a higher hit rate. At least one No. 11 seed has reached the second round every tournament since 2004. In 2021, UCLA topped BYU as an 11 seed — and didn't stop winning until reaching the Final Four. In 2022, three No. 11 seeds advanced out of the first round.
Here's everything you need to know about 11s vs. 6s in March Madness.
History of 11 vs. 6 seeds in March Madness
There have been 58 No. 11 seeds that have defeated No. 6 seeds (38.16 percent) since the NCAA tournament field expanded in 1985. Here's a list of all of them:
| Year | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Pitt def. Iowa State | 59-41 |
| 2022 | Michigan def. Colorado State | 75-63 |
| 2022 | Notre Dame def. Alabama | 78-64 |
| 2022 | Iowa State def. LSU | 59-54 |
| 2021 | Syracuse def. San Diego State | 78-62 |
| 2021 | UCLA def. BYU | 73-62 |
| 2019 | Ohio State def. Iowa State | 62-59 |
| 2018 | Loyola Chicago def. Miami (FL) | 64-62 |
| 2018 | Syracuse def. TCU | 57-52 |
| 2017 | Rhode Island def. Creighton | 84-72 |
| 2017 | USC def. SMU | 66-65 |
| 2017 | Xavier def. Maryland | 76-65 |
| 2016 | Northern Iowa def. Texas | 75-72 |
| 2016 | Gonzaga def. Seton Hall | 68-52 |
| 2016 | Wichita State def. Arizona | 65-55 |
| 2015 | Dayton def. Providence | 66-53 |
| 2015 | UCLA def. SMU | 60-59 |
| 2014 | Tennessee def. UMass | 86-67 |
| 2014 | Dayton def. Ohio State | 60-59 |
| 2013 | Minnesota def. UCLA | 83-63 |
| 2012 | Colorado def. UNLV | 68-64 |
| 2012 | NC State def. San Diego State | 79-65 |
| 2011 | Marquette def. Xavier | 66-55 |
| 2011 | VCU def. Georgetown | 74-56 |
| 2011 | Gonzaga def. St. John's | 86-71 |
| 2010 | Washington def. Marquette | 80-78 |
| 2010 | Old Dominion def. Notre Dame | 51-50 |
| 2009 | Dayton def. West Virginia | 68-62 |
| 2008 | Kansas State def. USC | 80-67 |
| 2007 | Winthrop def. Notre Dame | 76-64 |
| 2007 | VCU def. Duke | 79-77 |
| 2006 | Milwaukee def. Oklahoma | 82-74 |
| 2006 | George Mason def. Michigan State | 75-65 |
| 2005 | UAB def. LSU | 62-68 |
| 2003 | Central Michigan def. Creighton | 79-73 |
| 2002 | Wyoming def. Gonzaga | 73-68 |
| 2002 | Southern Illinois def. Texas Tech | 76-68 |
| 2001 | Georgia State def. Wisconsin | 50-49 |
| 2001 | Temple def. Texas | 79-65 |
| 2000 | Pepperdine def. Indiana | 77-57 |
| 1998 | Washington def. Xavier | 69-68 |
| 1998 | Western Michigan def. Clemson | 75-72 |
| 1996 | Boston College def. Indiana | 64-51 |
| 1995 | Texas def. Oregon | 90-73 |
| 1994 | Penn def. Nebraska | 90-80 |
| 1993 | Tulane def. Kansas State | 55-53 |
| 1991 | Creighton def. New Mexico State | 64-56 |
| 1991 | UConn def. LSU | 79-62 |
| 1990 | Loyola Marymount def. New Mexico State | 111-92 |
| 1989 | Minnesota def. Kansas State | 86-75 |
| 1989 | Evansville def. Oregon State | 94-90 |
| 1989 | South Alabama def. Alabama | 86-84 |
| 1989 | Texas def. Georgia Tech | 76-70 |
| 1988 | Rhode Island def. Missouri | 87-80 |
| 1986 | LSU def. Purdue | 94-87 |
| 1985 | Boston College def. Texas Tech | 55-53 |
| 1985 | UTEP def. Tulsa | 79-75 |
| 1985 | Auburn def. Purdue | 59-58 |
Some more tidbits:
- The 1989 NCAA tournament was a special one for No. 11 seeds. That year, every No. 11 seed won against the No. 6 seeds, by an average of 5.75 points.
- No. 11 seeds have been particularly successful against 6s lately. Going back to 2014, they have gone 19-17.
- No. 11 seeds went a combined 6-2 against 6s in 2016 and 2017.
- LSU, George Mason, VCU and UCLA all made history as the lowest seeds to ever make the Final Four and all won by considerable margins against their first-round matchups. Loyola Chicago also made the Final Four as an 11, but its first round game was much closer than those.
- Pepperdine beat Indiana in a 20-point blowout, 77-57, in Bobby Knight’s last game as the Hoosiers’ coach. It was the largest 11 over 6 margin ever.
MORE: The 13 over 4 upset pick is undervalued in March Madness brackets
How much more likely is an 11-6 upset than a 12-5 upset?
There have been 53 12-5 upsets since the NCAA tournament field expanded. That's close to 11 over 6, which has happened only five more times since expansion.
Recent/memorable 11-6 games
In 2021, UCLA and Syracuse both pulled out wins. The Bruins then memorably marched all the way to the national semifinals — going from First Four to Final Four.
Who can forget Donte Ingram's shot against Miami to send Loyola Chicago to the second round in 2018? It was the start of a magical run for the Ramblers:
And of course: Northern Iowa's Paul Jesperson hit a legendary shot in 2016 to push the Panthers past Texas:
Going back to 2007, VCU shocked Duke on a late bucket:
