Through a wild college basketball season full of shockers and upsets, Baylor has emerged as a constant for 2020 NCAA tournament predictions — at least through Jan. 23 games.
With less than two months until Selection Sunday, Baylor leads the latest March Madness projections from krikya18.com's Andy Katz. Gonzaga, San Diego State and Kansas are the remaining projected No. 1 seeds.
In Katz's previous predicted bracket on Jan. 14, Duke, Butler and Gonzaga joined Baylor as No. 1 seeds. Katz had earlier made a preseason bracket in September (50 days before opening night last fall), and also one in early December (roughly 100 days from Selection Sunday).
2020 NCAA tournament predictions: Projected bracket
Click or tap here to open the bracket in a new window.
And here's his latest bracket in table form.
| Seed | South | East | West | Midwest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baylor | Kansas | Gonzaga | San Diego St. |
| 16 | South Dakota St. | Quinnipiac/ Prairie View A&M |
Robert Morris/ Norfolk State |
Winthrop |
| 2 | Dayton | Duke | Florida State | West Virginia |
| 15 | Wright St. | Murray State | UC Irvine | Montana |
| 3 | Seton Hall | Michigan State | Oregon | Louisville |
| 14 | William & Mary | Colgate | New Mexico St. | Little Rock |
| 4 | Maryland | Auburn | Iowa | Kentucky |
| 13 | North Texas | Vermont | Loyola Chicago | Stephen F. Austin |
| 5 | Butler | Arizona | Villanova | Rutgers |
| 12 | East Tennessee St. | Yale | Akron | Virginia Tech/ Richmond |
| 6 | LSU | Colorado | Illinois | Stanford |
| 11 | N.C. State/ Oklahoma |
Memphis | Liberty | Ohio State |
| 7 | Penn State | Marquette | Wichita State | Wisconsin |
| 10 | Saint Mary's | Indiana | BYU | VCU |
| 8 | Michigan | Houston | Texas Tech | Creighton |
| 9 | Arkansas | Florida | Minnesota | USC |
No. 1 seeds: Baylor, Gonzaga, San Diego State, Kansas
Baylor is again the No. 1 overall seed. Baylor is also No. 1 in Katz's most recent Power 36 and the AP Poll. Big 12 rival Kansas takes the final No. 1 seed, up from a No. 2 seed.
San Diego State, the final undefeated team, moved up from Katz's 2-line from his last bracket to take the third No. 1 seed. The Aztecs are also No. 1 in the NET rankings.
Gonzaga, which is No. 1 in the Coaches Poll, is a No. 1 seed again for Katz, though the Bulldogs moved up from the final top seed spot to No. 2 overall.
The four current projected top seeds have a varied history on the top line. Baylor and San Diego State have never been a No. 1 seed. The Bears have been No. 3 four times (most recently 2017), while the Aztecs were a No. 2 seed in 2011.
But Kansas and Gonzaga are more familiar as top seeds. Gonzaga earned a top seed for the first time in 2013 and did so again in 2017 and 2019.
Then there's Kansas. The Jayhawks have been a top seed in 1986, 1992, 1995, 1997, 1998, 2002, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2013, 2016, 2017 and 2018. Kansas hasn't been seeded worse than No. 4 since 2000.
Moving up
Though it's been only a couple of weeks, some teams made big steps forward either into the bracket or up the seed line.
Among teams that were in both projections, Iowa is the standout. The Hawkeyes were 33rd overall (a No. 9 seed) on Jan. 14 but jumped 19 spots to a No. 4 seed after beating Northwestern, Michigan and Rutgers.
Houston is also on the rise. The Cougars were 44th in Katz's Jan. 14 bracketology. But after losing to Tulsa on Jan. 11, the Cougars put together wins against SMU, Wichita State and UConn to go up 15 spots to 29th (a No. 8 seed).
Here are the biggest risers:
- Iowa: Up 19 spots to 14th — 4 seed
- Houston: Up 15 spots to 29th — 8 seed
- Marquette: Up 11 spots to 28th — 7 seed
- Florida: Up 11 spots to 34th — 9 seed
- Arizona: Up 10 spots to 18th — 5 seed
- Rutgers: Up 10 spots to 20th — 5 seed
- Illinois: Up 6 spots to 23rd — 6 seed
- Minnesota: Up 6 spots to 37th — 10 seed
- Florida State: Up 5 spots to 8th — 2 seed
- Louisville: Up 5 spots to 9th — 3 seed
- Penn State: Up 5 spots to 26th — 7 seed
- USC: Out of the field to 35th — 9 seed
- N.C. State: Out of the field to 43rd — 11 seed
The bubble
Katz's last at-large teams in the field are N.C. State, Oklahoma, Virginia Tech and Richmond. In his previous bracket, Katz had N.C. State and Richmond among his first four teams out.
His last four at-large bids from earlier this month have seen different trends since Jan. 14. Houston and Florida have shot up Katz's ranked list, with the Cougars up 15 spots to 29th (a No. 8 seed) and Florida up 11 spots to 34th (a No. 9 seed). However, his final two teams in the field from mid-January, Utah and Oregon State, are now out of his projected list.
Katz's Field of 68
| RANK | SEED | TEAM | CONFERENCE |
|---|
| 1. 1 -- Baylor (AQ) Big 12 |
| 2. 1 -- Gonzaga (AQ) WCC |
| 3. 1 -- San Diego State (AQ) Mountain West |
| 4. 1 -- Kansas Big 12 |
| 5. 2 -- Duke ACC |
| 6. 2 -- West Virginia Big 12 |
| 7. 2 -- Dayton (AQ) A-10 |
| 8. 2 -- Florida State ACC |
| 9. 3 -- Louisville (AQ) ACC |
| 10. 3 -- Michigan State (AQ) Big Ten |
| 11. 3 -- Oregon (AQ) Pac-12 |
| 12. 3 -- Seton Hall (AQ) Big East |
| 13. 4 -- Kentucky SEC |
| 14. 4 -- Iowa Big Ten |
| 15. 4 -- Maryland Big Ten |
| 16. 4 -- Auburn SEC |
| 17. 5 -- Villanova Big East |
| 18. 5 --- Arizona Pac-12 |
| 19. 5 -- Butler Big East |
| 20. 5 -- Rutgers Big Ten |
| 21. 6 -- Stanford Pac-12 |
| 22. 6 -- LSU (AQ) SEC |
| 23. 6 -- Illinois Big Ten |
| 24. 6 -- Colorado Pac-12 |
| 25. 7 -- Wisconsin Big Ten |
| 26. 7 -- Penn State Big Ten |
| 27. 7 -- Wichita State American |
| 28. 7 -- Marquette Big East |
| 29. 8 -- Houston (AQ) American |
| 30. 8 -- Michigan Big Ten |
| 31. 8 -- Creighton Big East |
| 32. 8 -- Texas Tech Big 12 |
| 33. 9 -- BYU WCC |
| 34. 9 -- Florida SEC |
| 35. 9 -- USC Pac-12 |
| 36. 9 -- Arkansas SEC |
| 37. 10 -- Minnesota Big Ten |
| 38. 10 -- Saint Mary's WCC |
| 39. 10 -- Indiana Big Ten |
| 40. 10 -- VCU A-10 |
| 41. 11 -- Ohio State Big Ten |
| 42. 11 -- Memphis American |
| 43. 11 -- N.C. State ACC |
| 44. 11 -- Oklahoma Big 12 |
| 45. 11 -- Liberty (AQ) ASUN |
| 46. 11 -- Virginia Tech ACC |
| 47. 12 -- Richmond A-10 |
| 48. 12 -- East Tennessee State (AQ) Southern |
| 49. 12 -- Akron (AQ) MAC |
| 50. 12 -- Yale (AQ) Ivy |
| 51. 13 -- Stephen F. Austin (AQ) Southland |
| 52. 13 -- Loyola Chicago (AQ) Missouri Valley |
| 53. 13 -- North Texas (AQ) C-USA |
| 54. 13 -- Vermont (AQ) America East |
| 55. 14 -- William & Mary (AQ) Colonial |
| 56. 14 -- Little Rock (AQ) Sun Belt |
| 57. 14 -- New Mexico State (AQ) WAC |
| 58. 14 -- Colgate (AQ) Patriot League |
| 59. 15 -- UC Irvine (AQ) Big West |
| 60. 15 -- Montana (AQ) Big Sky |
| 61. 15 -- Wright State (AQ) Horizon |
| 62. 15 -- Murray State (AQ) OVC |
| 63. 16 -- South Dakota State (AQ) Summit |
| 64. 16 -- Winthrop (AQ) Big South |
| 65. 16 -- Quinnipiac (AQ) MAAC |
| 66. 16 -- Prairie View A&M (AQ) SWAC |
| 67. 16 -- Robert Morris (AQ) NEC |
| 68. 16 -- Norfolk State (AQ) MEAC |
The Big Ten has, by far, the most teams in the field with 11. That's down from 12 in Katz's past projection — it's been proven to be hard to win on the road in that league. Twelve of the league's 14 teams have two or fewer home losses this season.
After the Big Ten comes the ACC, Big 12, Big East, Pac-12 and the SEC. These five conferences are projected to have five teams in the field of 68.
First four out: Purdue, Utah, Cincinnati, Rhode Island
