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We say it each week, but the NCAA tournament picture is fluid until Selection Monday and this week is no exception as there are several shakeups in the latest D1Baseball Field of 64 Projections entering an important conference tournament week.
In the latest iteration of our projected field, the most notable change is in the top eight, where there is one major change — Wake Forest dropped out of the top eight while Big 12 regular season champion Oklahoma entered the top eight after winning the league by three games and being in a position of strength from an RPI standpoint.
Georgia rounds out the top eight seeds, while Florida State, Oregon State, NC State and Virginia are still very much in the mix for top eights. Conference tournament performances will be important for those teams. Oregon State and NC State, in particular, seem to be surging.
The final few host spots in the Top 16 are still fluid as conference tournament week begins. Wake dropped out of the top eight and the hosting mix and will need a run in the ACC tournament to be a Top 16, while Mississippi State, which dropped a few spots in the RPI after a loss to Missouri (MSU won the series), is sitting at 17 on our board behind Indiana State, East Carolina and Oklahoma State. The Pokes, who finished second in the Big 12 and have a solid RPI, occupy the final spot. But again, we can’t stress enough that conference tournaments will guide changes in this range.
The SEC leads all conferences with 11 teams in the field, while the ACC has eight teams in the field, and the Big 12 has seven. The Sun Belt is another high RPI league with five teams in the field, while the Pac-12 has three teams in the field with California’s stock beginning to rise as a potential fourth team in the field. The Coastal Athletic Association also has three teams in the field. Everyone else has two or fewer teams in the Field of 64.
Our projections are assembled each week by the trio of Mark Etheridge, Kendall Rogers, and Aaron Fitt. Together, the trio has more than 60 years of experience covering college baseball and putting together regional projections.
Here's the projected field of 64 (parentheses indicate national seed):
| Field of 64 Projections | |
|---|---|
| Lexington Region | Stillwater Region |
| 1 Kentucky (1) | 1 Oklahoma State (16) |
| 4 Sacred Heart | 4 Lamar |
| 2 Illinois | 2 DBU |
| 3 Coastal Carolina | 3 LSU |
| Knoxville Region | Greenville Region |
| 1 Tennessee (2) | 1 East Carolina (15) |
| 4 Fairfield | 4 Presbyterian |
| 2 Connecticut | 2 Duke |
| 3 Georgia Tech | 3 Charleston |
| College Station Region | Terre Haute Region |
| 1 Texas A&M (3) | 1 Indiana State (14) |
| 4 Oral Roberts | 4 Bowling Green |
| 2 Louisiana Tech | 2 Mississippi State |
| 3 TCU | 3 Kansas State |
| Chapel Hill Region | Santa Barbara Region |
| 1 North Carolina (4) | 1 UC Santa Barbara (13) |
| 4 Cornell | 4 Air Force |
| 2 Oregon | 2 Arizona |
| 3 UNC Greensboro | 3 Northeastern |
| Fayetteville Region | Charlottesville Region |
| 1 Arkansas (5) | 1 Virginia (12) |
| 4 Saint Louis | 4 Bryant |
| 2 Texas | 2 West Virginia |
| 3 Troy | 3 James Madison |
| Clemson Region | Raleigh Region |
| 1 Clemson (6) | 1 NC State (11) |
| 4 Army | 4 Grand Canyon |
| 2 Louisiana | 2 UC Irvine |
| 3 South Carolina | 3 UNC Wilmington |
| Norman Region | Corvallis Region |
| 1 Oklahoma (7) | 1 Oregon State (10) |
| 4 Little Rock | 4 Wright State |
| 2 Nebraska | 2 San Diego |
| 3 Alabama | 3 Vanderbilt |
| Athens Region | Tallahassee Region |
| 1 Georgia (8) | 1 Florida State (9) |
| 4 Austin Peay | 4 Florida A&M |
| 2 Wake Forest | 2 Southern Miss |
| 3 UCF | 3 Florida |
LAST FOUR IN: Coastal Carolina, Troy, Vanderbilt, UNC Wilmington
FIRST FOUR OUT: Cincinnati, Louisville, California, Xavier
