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Michella Chester | krikya18.com | November 27, 2024

2024 NCAA women's volleyball tournament bracket projection, days before selections

2024 NCAA tournament bracket projection

The official bracket announcement for the 2024 NCAA DI women's volleyball tournament, which has its selection show set for 6 p.m. ET on Sunday, Dec. 1 on ESPN, is nearly here. 

And in honor of the high-stakes day, NCAA's Michella Chester made her predictions, projecting the 64-team bracket while following the committeeโ€™s selection criteria and bracketing principles. It is based on where we are now with a little guess as to how the final week of the regular season matchups will play out. Chester also chose the 31 automatic qualifiers, with the rest at-large bids.

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Here's a quick reminder on how the selection information works, found on :

The Competition Oversight Committee has again approved a bracketing pilot for the Division I Women's Volleyball Championship. Fifty percent of the bracket will be seeded in four groupings of 1-8. Published seeding will be in four sets of 1-8 and the pairings will honor a 1-8 assignment. The committee will identify the top 32 teams. The top 16 teams will be identified in rank order and assigned a seed grouping from 1 to 4. The balance of the ranked teams, in turn, are assigned to one of the remaining seed groupings (i.e., 5 to 8). Once the seed assignment is finalized, it remains unchanged while placing the teams into the championship bracket. First and second-round conference matchups will be avoided.

Here's how Chester projects the bracket: 

2024 NCAA DI women's volleyball tournament bracket predictions

*denotes host institution

(1) Nebraska* vs. Wichita State (1) Louisville* vs. Chicago State
UNI vs. (8) South Dakota State Tennessee vs. (8) LMU
   
(5) Georgia Tech vs. FGCU (5) Dayton vs. Miami (Fla.)
Florida A&M vs. (4) Florida* Wofford vs. (4) Kentucky*
   
(3) Arizona State* vs. New Hampshire (3) Oregon* vs. Morehead State
UTEP vs. (6) Florida State Hawaii vs. (6) BYU
   
(2) SMU* vs. Texas State (2) Stanford* vs. Loyola Chicago
UT Arlington vs. (7) Texas A&M Ole Miss vs. (7) Illinois
   
(2) Creighton* vs. South Dakota (2) Wisconsin* vs. Western Michigan
Washington vs. (7) Missouri Virginia vs. (7) Marquette
   
(3) Purdue* vs. Cleveland State (3) Kansas* vs. Charleston
Western Kentucky vs. (6) TCU Northern Colorado vs. (6) Minnesota
   
(4) Texas* vs. Texas A&M CC (4) Utah* vs. Colgate
Colorado State vs. (5) Baylor* San Diego vs. (5) Southern California
   
(8) North Carolina vs. Yale (8) Oklahoma vs. High Point
Fairfield vs. (1) Penn State* Delaware State vs. (1) Pittsburgh

Michella Chester's top 16 teams 

  1. Nebraska
  2. Pitt
  3. Louisville
  4. Penn State
  5. Creighton
  6. Stanford
  7. Wisconsin
  8. SMU
  9. Arizona State
  10. Kansas 
  11. Oregon
  12. Purdue
  13. Texas
  14. Kentucky
  15. Utah
  16. Florida

Of the 16 teams, Chester has five from the Big Ten (Nebraska, Penn State, Wisconsin, Oregon and Purdue), four from the ACC (Pitt, Louisville, Stanford and SMU), three from the Big 12 (Arizona State, Kansas and Utah), three from the SEC (Texas, Kentucky and Florida). Creighton is the lone representative from the Big East for the second straight year. 

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Five-eight seeds

Five seeds:

  • Southern California
  • Baylor
  • Dayton
  • Georgia Tech

Six seeds:

  • Minnesota 
  • TCU
  • Florida State
  • BYU

Seven seeds:

  • Missouri
  • Marquette
  • Texas A&M
  • Illinois

Eight seeds:

  • North Carolina
  • Oklahoma
  • South Dakota State
  • LMU

Projecting the winners of every conference, here are Chester's 31 AQs in the NCAA tournament field. The remaining spots are given at-large bids. 

Conference AQ RPI
America East New Hampshire 146
American Wichita State 65
ACC Pittsburgh 2
ASUN FGCU 47
Atlantic 10 Loyola Chicago 57
Big East Creighton 6
Big Sky Northern Colorado 69
Big South High Point 60
Big Ten Nebraska 1
Big 12 Arizona State 9
Big West Hawaii 40
CAA Charleston 91
C-USA Western Kentucky 42
Horizon League Cleveland State 108
Ivy League Yale 37
MAC Western Michigan 79
MAAC Fairfield 143
MEAC Delaware State 205
Missouri Valley UNI 35
Mountain West Colorado State 59
NEC Chicago State 167
Ohio Valley Morehead State 180
Patriot League Colgate 85
SEC Kentucky 10
SoCon Wofford 67
Southland Texas AM CC 84
Summit League South Dakota 103
SWAC Florida A&M 156
Sun Belt Texas State 54
WAC UT Arlington 45
WCC LMU 30

At-large bids

To be considered during the at-large process, a team must have a record of .500 or better.

The following criteria shall be employed by a governing sports committee in selecting participants for NCAA championships competition [Bylaw 31.3.3; Criteria for Selection of Participants]:

  • Won-lost record
  • Strength of schedule
  • Eligibility and availability of student-athletes for NCAA championships

In addition to Bylaw 31.3.3, the Womenโ€™s Volleyball Committee has received approval from the NCAA Division I Competition Oversight Committee to consider the following criteria in the selection of at-large teams for the volleyball championship (not necessarily in priority order):

Primary criteria

  • Rating Percentage Index
  • Head-to-head competition
  • Results versus common opponents
  • Significant wins and losses
  • KPI

Secondary criteria 

If the evaluation of the primary criteria does not result in a decision, the secondary criteria will be reviewed. All the criteria listed will be evaluated.

  • Late-season performance (last 10 matches)
  • Eligibility and availability of student-athletes
  • Location of contest

Here's how Chester picked her at-large teams:

*denotes a top-16 seed

  • Louisville*
  • Penn State*
  • Stanford*
  • Wisconsin*
  • SMU*
  • Kansas*
  • Oregon*
  • Purdue*
  • Texas*
  • Utah*
  • Florida*
  • Southern California
  • Baylor
  • Dayton
  • Georgia Tech
  • Minnesota
  • TCU
  • Florida State
  • BYU
  • Missouri
  • Marquette
  • Texas A&M
  • Illinois
  • North Carolina
  • South Dakota State
  • Oklahoma
  • Washington
  • Miami (Fla.)
  • Ole Miss
  • UTEP
  • Tennessee
  • San Diego
  • Virginia
.

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