Predicting the final College Football Playoff bracket, rankings

The final College Football Playoff rankings of 2024 will be announced Sunday, Dec. 8, and things are bound to change after conference championship weekend. Before the CFP committee unveils the next rankings, I predict where the top 25 teams will land, along with the bracket.

Note that these are my predictions and mine alone. I look at head-to-head results, schedule strength, games against ranked teams and more to help rank the teams how I think the CFP committee will do so. .

2024 College Football Playoff rankings predictions: Final Top 25 projections

These predictions are as all conference championship games final.

1. Oregon (13-0) LW: 1 — The Big Ten champion Ducks are undefeated and will be the No. 1 team and seed in the postseason.
2. Notre Dame (11-1) LW: 4 — The two teams ranked in front of Notre Dame (Texas and Penn State) lost last week, and the team ranked behind the Fighting Irish (Georgia) won the SEC title. I think the committee hasn't allowed Notre Dame's loss to Northern Illinois at home hurt it in its eyes all season, so I don't think that loss will allow it to drop below a two-loss SEC Champion.
3. Georgia (11-2) LW: 5 — SEC Champion Georgia have gone into overtime in each of the last two weeks. The Bulldogs have won both of those games and will move up to No. 3 in the rankings.
4. Texas (11-2) LW: 2 — The biggest debate will be between Texas and Ohio State for the No. 4 ranking and No. 6 seed. Texas has two losses to Georgia while Ohio State has a loss to Oregon and Michigan. I don't think the committee will drop the Longhorns below the Buckeyes because of whom both teams lost to, even with OSU having better wins.
5. Ohio State (10-2) LW: 6 — Ohio State benefits from a head-to-head win over Penn State and will be the No. 5 ranked team in the country. Yet, it's potentially the worst spot to be in the rankings. The Buckeyes will be the No. 7 seed in the playoff with this ranking as the third-highest ranked at-large team.
6. Tennessee (10-2) LW: 7 — Tennessee will move up one spot in the rankings and the committee's reasoning will be because of wins. The committee clearly valued win over Alabama enough to put the Vols over a trio of one-loss teams last week, so I think that win will put Tennessee over Penn State, too.
7. Penn State (11-2) LW: 3 — Penn State's best win is over Illinois. Its strength of schedule also isn't the best, ranking just 36th in the country. That means the Nittany Lions will drop to No. 7 in these rankings and play on the road in the first round of the playoffs — even after pushing Oregon to the wire.
8. Boise State (12-1) LW: 10 — Boise State moves in front of Indiana thanks to a conference championship win.
9. Indiana (11-1) LW: 9 — Indiana ranked above Boise State last week. The order won't matter for seeding, but the Hoosiers fall below the Broncos this week.
10. SMU (11-2) LW: 8 — The No. 10 ranking will be for the final at-large playoff spot. The question is, will SMU or Alabama get the spot? If you asked me what the committee thinks at the end of the third quarter of the ACC Championship game, I'd say the committee gives the spot to Alabama. However, with SMU forcing a game-winning field goal in a loss, the Mustangs showed enough to the committee to get the final spot and WILL NOT be penalized for playing during conference championship week.
11. Alabama (9-3) LW: 11 — Three losses are more than two, especially when one team lost to as many unranked teams as the other team lost to total. Alabama didn't play in its conference championship. The Tide couldn't do anything to improve its resume this week and ultimately, misses the playoff.
12. Miami (FL) (10-2) LW: 12 — The committee said there's nothing Miami can do without playing on the field, so the Hurricanes are stuck behind Alabama.
13. Ole Miss (9-3) LW: 13 — Like Miami, Ole Miss is also locked in place this week.
14. Arizona State (11-2) LW: 15 — A conference championship moves Arizona State in front of South Carolina, but the committee won't see it as enough to move past an Ole Miss team that has a head-to-head win over the SEC Champion.
15. South Carolina (9-3) LW: 14 — South Carolina will be ranked above Clemson because it defeated it just two weeks ago.
16. Clemson (10-3) LW: 17 — The ACC champions have a nonconference in-state ceiling in the rankings, but they'll still make the playoff.
17. Iowa State (10-3) LW: 16 — Staying consistent with how the committee treats conference championship losses, Iowa State will remain ranked ahead of BYU, a Big 12 team that didn't make the championship game.
18. BYU (10-2) LW: 18 — BYU stays put at No. 18.
19. Missouri (9-3) LW: 19 — Missouri stays put at No. 19
20. Army (11-1) LW: 24 — A conference championship launches Army into the top 20 of the rankings.
21. Illinois (9-3) LW: 21 — Illinois could rank above Army, but I don't see it. Therefore it stays put.
22. Syracuse (9-3) LW: 22 — See above for Syracuse.
23. Colorado (9-3) LW: 23 — Colorado will likely fall below Army without a conference championship.
24. Memphis (10-2) LW: 25 — Memphis will remain ranked this week.
25. Duke (9-3) LW: NR — Duke takes UNLV's spot after the Rebels lost the Mountain West Championship game. Why is this? Well, the Blue Devils were the first team from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 or SEC to finish 9-3 and not make the regular-season-ending CFP rankings last week since 2015. Now, Duke gets its spot in the rankings AND it also gives teams like SMU and Miami a ranked win.

What the bracket could look like

First Teams Out: No. 11 Alabama, No. 12 Miami, No. 13 Ole Miss

CFP🏆: College Football Playoff rankings release schedule

Notable College Football Playoff rankings questions

Which teams will host a first-round game?

Texas, Ohio State, Tennessee and Penn State all have two losses without a conference championship. Only three of these teams will be able to host a first-round playoff game at home. Ohio State will definitely host because it was ranked above Tennessee last week, but what about the other three? Will a two-loss Texas drop below a two-loss Tennessee in the SEC? Where does a two-loss Penn State land and will its head-to-head loss to Ohio State matter?

Here's a look at all of their resumes.

CONF CHAMP WEEK RECAP:

What will be made of SMU vs. Alabama for the final spot?

Who should get the final playoff spot between SMU and Alabama? The Mustangs lost a conference championship game and the committee clearly — the difference in spots No. 8 and No. 11 were crystal — thought SMU was better than the Tide last week. Will a loss from SMU when Alabama didn't even play knock out the Mustangs? I don't think so even with the different resumes, but we'll find out Sunday.

Who's the No. 4 seed?

Arizona State and Clemson were separated by one team in the rankings last week — and both teams won their conference championship games. Arizona State was ranked higher, but beat a lower-ranked team than Clemson beat. Could who you beat for a conference championship be the determining factor in the rankings and a seed line?