Ranking the top 8 seeds in the FCS playoffs by their one-and-done chances

The second round of the 2024 FCS playoffs is here. The top eight seeds can rest no longer as their byes have concluded and new opponents are coming to town. It's not a given that any of the top seeds in the playoffs will win — and a few should be on upset alert.

Here's my ranking of which top-eight seeds should be on one-and-done watch.

1. No. 6 UIW

Opponent: No. 11 Villanova

Villanova needed some hotly debated calls to go its way in the first round, but the Wildcats are still a talented team deserving of its opening playoff win. Villanova beat Delaware and New Hampshire during the regular season — two teams better than anyone UIW beat. The Wildcats are battle-tested and could have a chip on their shoulder after some questioned last week's win. It's the perfect formula for an upset in San Antonio.

2. No. 7 Mercer

Opponent: No. 10 Rhode Island

Rhode Island nearly suffered an upset of its own against Central Connecticut State to open the playoffs. That close win keeps URI-Mercer from taking the top spot on this list. However, I think the Rams have a solid shot at landing an upset thanks to their defense. Led by A.J. Pena, Rhode Island could keep a Mercer offense in check to allow its offense to gradually build against a Mercer defense that is the best in the FCS. That could be a recipe for success that sends the Bears to a second-round hibernation.

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3. No. 3 South Dakota State

Opponent: No. 14 Montana

The back-to-back defending champs are the third-highest-ranked team on upset watch this weekend. That's because South Dakota State is playing the same team it beat to close last year's postseason run to open this year's postseason run — the Montana Grizzlies.

Of course, neither of these teams is the same as last year, but key pieces from both squads remain. Most notably, wide receiver Junior Bergen is back for Montana, fresh off returning two punts for touchdowns in the first round to tie the all-time total FCS record. 

Meanwhile, the Jackrabbits haven't played a close game since October. So why could they be one and done? Well, Montana is a team that ranked in the top 10 for much of the season. Playing a team of such high quality early that has made deep postseason runs before should have South Dakota State on high alert. Any missteps and the Grizzlies could take this one.

4. No. 5 UC Davis

Opponent: No. 12 Illinois State

Illinois State was the third-best FCS team in the MVFC this year. The Redbirds are the only seeded team already with a road playoff win, too, so they won't be concerned with taking a trip out west. Add a defense that forced eight turnovers in the first round — five interceptions and three fumbles — and you could have a road-tested, turnover-creating team primed to make an upset.

BRACKET: See the official 2024 FCS playoff bracket

5. No. 4 South Dakota

Opponent: No. 13 Tarleton State

Kayvon Britten. If you've followed FCS football all season long you know his name. When he's on the field Saturday in Vermillion, he'll be the best player — even against a loaded South Dakota defense. Stopping Britten will be no easy task for the Coyotes, and a player like that could make the difference between South Dakota heading home early or advancing.

6. No. 2 North Dakota State

Opponent: No. 15 Abilene Christian

Abilene Christian pitched a shutout to open the playoffs, so the Wildcats aren't going to be a pushover. However, this game ranks only sixth because quarterback Maverick McIvor is expected to make his return this week. 

"Wait, did I just read that a starting quarterback is expected to make his return and it lowers the upset-potential ranking in a game?" is probably what you're thinking to yourself right now. I'm here to tell you, yes you did read that.

McIvor isn't making a normal return to action; he's making a return in the biggest game of his collegiate career with the highest stakes against a perennial powerhouse team with an excellent defense. That's a lot for a quarterback coming off of injury to deal with. However, Abilene Christian is still the UAC conference champion and it could land an upset. That's why the Wildcats vs. Bison doesn't rank lower on the list.

SEEDS: The importance of a top seed in the FCS playoffs, explained

7. No. 1 Montana State

Opponent: UT Martin

Montana State has been the most dominant team all season long and would rank eighth on this list if we were evaluating top-eight seeds alone. However, the Bobcats rank seventh because UT Martin is better equipped to land an upset — especially with a great run defense — than the opponent facing the final team on this list.

8. No. 8 Idaho

Opponent: Lehigh

Lehigh defeated Richmond last week in the biggest upset of the first round of the playoffs. However, this is also a Lehigh team that didn't defeat a team with a record above .500 during the regular season. Meanwhile, Idaho beat an FBS team and two playoff teams during the regular season. There's always a chance of an upset as the Mountain Hawks showed last weekend, but I think the Vandals are the safest team in the opening round.