With only two weeks remaining in the regular season, the College Football Playoff picture is coming together. The stakes get higher by the week, as one loss can knock many teams out of contention.
As we count down to selection day on Dec. 8, here are three games from each remaining regular season week that could have the biggest impact on the College Football Playoff.
*All rankings are from the College Football Playoff poll
CFP: 2024-25 College Football Playoff schedule, dates, TV channel, sites
Week 13
No. 19 Army vs. No. 6 Notre Dame (at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, New York)
Navy couldn't get it done. Now it's Army's turn. Do the Black Knights have enough magic? It's hard to tell. But Northern Illinois did. Both teams need a ranked win to stay in contention for the CFP. Army, undefeated at 9-0 entering the game, needs this win to prove it can compete outside of the American that the Black Knights have run through to this point.
Army, No. 12 Boise State and the Big 12 are all eyeing the fourth and fifth conference championship bid. The Broncos have impressed, with their only loss to the hands of No. 1 Oregon by just a field goal, and clearly, the CFP committee values Boise high, giving Ashton Jeanty's Broncos a top-four seed in the latest poll. But if Army knocks off the Irish, it instantly holds a much better win than any win on Boise State's resume and the Big 12 contenders.
As for Notre Dame, it cannot afford a loss. They already own arguably the worst loss of the season among the CFP contenders. Another loss to a non-power conference program is not a good look for a team eyeing a playoff spot, especially when the Irish do not have the opportunity to compete for a conference championship.
No. 5 Indiana at No. 2 Ohio State
Is Indiana legit? It picked up its biggest win of the season two weeks ago against Michigan, but a matchup with the Buckeyes is a much different test. A win here not only catapults Indiana into the driver's seat for a CFP spot, but it proves that this is not a one-and-done year for the Hoosiers. Curt Cignetti has a chance to rebrand what people think about Indiana football.
Now, before we get ahead of ourselves — Ohio State, on paper, should win this game. But the way this college football season has panned out, no win is a guarantee. The Buckeyes struggled against Nebraska in Week 9 — the same Nebraska team that lost by 49 to the Hoosiers. It's a dangerous game to get carried away in matchup comparisons, but there could be some meaning in that one.
Ohio State needs this win to have a shot at the Big Ten championship, and so does Indiana. This Week 13 matchup will be must-watch TV.
No. 4 Penn State at Minnesota
Penn State is quietly sneaking around in the College Football Playoff race. The Nittany Lions don't have a realistic path to the Big Ten title game, but that is not necessarily a bad thing. Oregon will win out, and the winner of Indiana and Ohio State will meet the Ducks in Indianapolis. All Penn State must do is beat Minnesota and then Maryland in Week 14. If it does, James Franklin's squad should receive a top-seven seed in the playoff bracket. The Nittany Lions' only loss is by a touchdown to Ohio State. That is a resume strong enough to make the playoffs.
However, Minnesota has proven competitive, beating Southern Cal by more than Penn State did. Now, this doesn't mean all that much, but we have seen Penn State struggle at times this season. One loss to an unranked Gopher team could send the blue and white tumbling down the polls.
Week 14
No. 3 Texas at No. 15 Texas A&M
This is the biggest remaining game for both programs, and it has a high chance of deciding who goes to the SEC championship. The winner of this game will likely have one conference loss, and this season, that is all it's going to take to make it to the SEC title game in Atlanta.
The stakes are obviously high for the Aggies. Their only realistic path to the playoffs is with an SEC championship win, which means they must take down Texas. However, the Longhorns, even with their shiny No. 3 ranking, could drop out of the top 12 with a loss to Texas A&M. If Steve Sarkisian's squad loses, Texas would not have a singular win over a team ranked inside the top 25. In fact, heading into Week 13, the Longhorns only have two wins against teams with a winning record — Colorado State and Vanderbilt. Texas has not played three of the top four SEC teams ranked behind it, and the only one it did play (Georgia), it lost by 15 at home.
As surprising as it may sound, this in-state rivalry game could end up being a playoff game for both teams.
No. 6 Notre Dame at Southern Cal
Let's say Notre Dame beats Army. One would think if the Irish have one loss, even though it is to Northern Illinois, they are in the playoffs. But two losses? No. The Irish will fall. The Trojans have been underwhelming this season, but all five of their losses are by one score or less and three by three points or less.
Now, Notre Dame is on a roll since the Northern Illinois loss. It would be surprising, but it seems like the historic stars could align for the Trojans to spoil the Irish's playoff hopes.
No. 11 Tennessee at Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt is out of playoff contention. Tennessee is not, and the Commodores would love nothing more than to spoil their in-state rivals' postseason aspirations with a third loss. Vanderbilt has proven capable with a win over Alabama and a close loss to Texas, and the Vols have no room for error after a loss to Georgia in Week 12.
Vandy has looked spotty this season, losing to a 2-8 Georgia State team in mid-September but turning around to beat No. 1 Alabama a few weeks later. The Vols will certainly have the edge in this matchup, but the Commodores can hang with some of the best on the right day.
The Vols have outscored Vandy 219-72 in their five-game winning streak against the Commodores. After going winless in the SEC last season (0-8), Vanderbilt football alum and head coach Clark Lea certainly believes he has the squad to put an end to that streak this year and finish the regular season on top.
It may not be likely, but I would keep an eye on the field goalpost in Nashville in Week 14.
