Predicting the College Football Playoff rankings, bracket for Week 13

The third College Football Playoff rankings of 2024 are hours away as we're inching closer and closer to the end of the regular season. Before the CFP committee unveils the next rankings on Tuesday night, I predict where the top 25 teams will land. 

The third of six CFP top 25 reveals happens on Tuesday, Nov. 19 (here's the full schedule). Ahead of the announcement, here's a prediction of how the committee could rank its top 25 teams. Note that these are my predictions and mine alone. I look at head-to-head results, schedule strength, games against ranked teams and more to help rank the teams how I think the CFP committee will do so.  .

2024 College Football Playoff rankings predictions: Third Top 25 projections

These predictions are as of Sunday, Nov. 17. 

1. Oregon (11-0) LW: 1 — Oregon escaped Wisconsin, and while the Ducks didn't look their best, they're still undefeated, keeping them at the top.
2. Ohio State (9-1) LW: 2 — Ohio State beat Northwestern and should stay No. 2.
3. Texas (9-1) LW: 3 — Texas held off Arkansas and should remain the highest-ranked SEC team.
4. Penn State (9-1) LW: 4 — Penn State handily beat Purdue and should remain in the top four.
5. Indiana (10-0) LW: 5 — Indiana had a bye and no top-10 team won a game big enough to move past the Hoosiers.
6. Notre Dame (9-1) LW: 8 — Notre Dame is the logical choice to move up after BYU and Tennessee lost.
7. Miami (Fla.) (9-1) LW: 9 — Miami was ranked above the two-loss SEC teams last week, and I don't think Georgia's win over Tennessee is enough to move it past the Hurricanes.
8. Georgia (8-2) LW:12 — Here's where the committee could go any which way in its rankings. I think spots Nos. 8-11 will all be two-loss SEC teams. I predict the committee will lead off with Georgia at No. 8. The Bulldogs just beat Tennessee by two scores. While Georgia does have losses to Alabama and Ole Miss, remember that this is the same committee that opened with Georgia ranked No. 3 in the country. Why? Because no SEC team has a better win right now than Georgia's victory over Texas. The committee obviously saw value in that win and will move the Bulldogs atop the two-loss SEC ladder.
9. Tennessee (8-2) LW: 7 — Tennessee lost to Georgia after previously losing to Arkansas. However, I think the committee leans on head-to-head results here and uses Tennessee's win over Alabama to place the Vols at No. 9.
10. Alabama (8-2) LW: 10 — I think Alabama stays put at No. 10. The Tide will be ranked above Ole Miss, but with wins over Missouri and LSU losing luster last week, Alabama's resume took a hit.
11. Ole Miss (8-2) LW: 11 — I don't think the committee moves Ole Miss after a bye week, but in this projection, it is out of the playoff bracket because two conference champions are ranked below it.
12. BYU (9-1) LW: 6 — BYU will still make the playoff projection this week as the top-ranked team from the Big 12. The Cougars stay above Boise State because of its win over SMU — the only currently ranked win between the two programs.
13. Boise State (9-1) LW: 13 — Boise State won't leapfrog BYU after the Cougars lost. Boise State's loss to Oregon is a better loss than BYU's defeat to Kansas, but the Broncos haven't beaten a currently ranked opponent now that Washington State lost.
14. SMU (9-1) LW: 14 — SMU remains on the playoff bubble after beating Boston College.
15. Texas A&M (7-2) LW: 15 — A win over New Mexico State won't move the needle for the committee.
16. Colorado (8-2) LW: 17 — Colorado's ceiling of Kansas State is gone now that the Wildcats lost. There's a chance the Buffaloes could enter the top 12 before the regular season ends if they keep winning. Colorado's 24-point win over Utah will be enough for the committee to keep a rising team like South Carolina ranked below it. 
17. South Carolina (7-3) LW: 21 — South Carolina moves in front of Clemson after picking up a ranked win over Missouri. 
18. Clemson (8-2) LW: 20 — Clemson needed fourth-quarter heroics to defeat Pitt, which will allow its in-state rival to move in front of it this week.
19. Arizona State (8-2) LW: NR — Arizona State picked up a ranked win over Kansas State where the Sun Devils led 24-0 in the third quarter. That win will land Arizona State in the top 20. 
20. Army (9-0) LW: 24 — Army will move into the top 20 after multiple ranked teams ahead of it lost. However, without a notable win, an unranked team like Arizona State can debut in front of it.
21. Kansas State (7-3) LW: 16 — Kansas State won't fall out of the rankings after losing to Arizona State, but the Wildcats will fall out of the top 20. Kansas State has lost back-to-back games but wins over Colorado and Tulane keep it ranked.
22. Tulane (8-2) LW: 25 — Tulane landed a shutout win that will raise the Green Wave this week. However, a head-to-head loss to Kansas State limits how high Tulane can rise.
23. Iowa State (8-2) LW: NR — The committee corrects itself this week from when it dropped a two-loss Iowa State out of the rankings. The Cyclones return after a win.
24. Missouri (7-3) LW: 23 — Missouri is a three-loss SEC team, with all of its losses coming to ranked opponents. While Missouri hasn't beaten any currently ranked teams, I think the committee will still keep the Tigers ranked until they lose a fourth game.
25. Illinois (7-3) LW: NR — Illinois joins the rankings at No. 25. The committee could go a lot of different ways here, but the Fighting Illini are a safe pick at 7-3 out of the Big Ten.

CFP🏆: College Football Playoff rankings release schedule

What the bracket could look like

First Teams Out: No. 11 Ole Miss, No. 14 SMU, No. 15 Texas A&M, No. 16 Colorado

LOOKING AHEAD: 2024-25 College Football Playoff schedule, dates, TV channel, sites 

Notable College Football Playoff rankings questions

How does the committee rank the two-loss SEC teams?

Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama and Ole Miss all have two SEC losses. Yet, none of that quartet is undefeated against the other three programs. The committee could throw out any order of these four teams and have a valid reason for why. However, where the teams land this week could be the order they stay for the rest of the season as neither the Bulldogs, Volunteers, Tide nor Rebels play a currently ranked team the rest of the season.

LAST WEEK'S RECAP: No. 1 Oregon survives Wisconsin, No. 12 UGA beats No. 7 Tennessee

How far does BYU drop?

BYU lost its first game this week, 17-13 to Kansas, which means it'll likely drop below its previous No. 6 ranking. How far the Cougars fall could depend on how heavily the committee weighs their wins over SMU and Kansas State. I think BYU will definitely be ranked above SMU, but will it be ranked above any two-loss SEC teams not named Texas A&M?

What new teams are on the committee's radar?

Five ranked teams outside of the top 15 lost last week. That means the committee will have to rank new teams this week, some of which will make their season debuts in the CFP rankings. The teams the committee chooses to rank this week could have a lasting impact as it could create ranked matchups that could boost playoff resumes.