With only three weeks remaining in the regular season, the College Football Playoff picture is coming together. The stakes get higher by the week, as one loss can knock many teams out of contention.
As we count down to selection day on Dec. 8, here are three games from each remaining regular season week that could have the biggest impact on the College Football Playoff.
*All rankings are from the College Football Playoff poll
Week 12
No. 7 Tennessee at No. 12 Georgia
It's go time for the Bulldogs. After losing 28-10 to now-No. 11 Ole Miss, Kirby Smart's squad owns two losses — a third, at home, could certainly knock Georgia out of Playoff contention. This is a must-win for the Bulldogs.
On the flip side, Tennessee has an opportunity to cement its standing in the 12-team playoff, and a win puts the Vols in a prime position to play in Atlanta in December for the SEC title. However, unlike Georgia, a loss for Tennessee does not necessarily knock the Vols out of contention. It will just knock them back into the pot of two-loss SEC teams.
Kansas at No. 6 BYU
The Jayhawks are amid an underwhelming year based on preseason expectations. However, Kansas just played spoiler to Iowa State's season, and it would love nothing more than to do the same to undefeated BYU. While the Jayhawks sit at 3-6, their record doesn't tell the full story. Five of their six losses have been decided by six points or fewer. This is a competitive football team, and they proved it last Saturday, dropping 45 points on the Cyclones.
The Cougars are coming off a too-close-for-comfort win against Utah last weekend, and opposite of Kansas, four of their wins are by six or fewer points. BYU squeezed by the Utes last Saturday, and don't be surprised if the Cougars are playing in another close one in Week 12.
Utah at No. 17 Colorado
Right now, Colorado controls its own destiny. Win out, the Buffaloes are in the Big 12 championship, competing for a possible automatic bid into the CFP. A loss, however, shakes up the Big 12 massively. We just saw the Big 12 leader, BYU, struggle with Utah. Colorado certainly has more talent, with Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders leading Deion's squad, but Utah will be looking to sully Colorado's playoff hopes after opening the season as the favorite to win the Big 12.
CFP: 2024-25 College Football Playoff schedule, dates, TV channel, sites
Week 13
No. 24 Army at No. 8 Notre Dame
Navy couldn't get it done. Now it's Army's turn. Do the Black Knights have enough magic? It's hard to tell. But Northern Illinois did. Both teams need a ranked win to stay in contention for the CFP. Army, undefeated at 9-0 entering the game, need this win to prove they can compete outside of the American conference that the Black Knights have run through to this point.
Army and No. 13 Boise State are both eyeing the fifth conference championship bid. The Broncos have impressed, with their only loss to the hands of No. 1 Oregon by just a field goal, and clearly, the CFP committee values Boise higher, given the 11-spot difference between the two teams. But if Army knocks off the Irish, it instantly holds a much better win than any win on Boise State's resume.
As for Notre Dame, it cannot afford a loss. They already own arguably the worst loss of the season. Another loss to a non-power conference program is not a good look for a team eyeing a playoff spot, especially when the Irish do not have the opportunity to compete for a conference championship.
No. 5 Indiana at No. 2 Ohio State
Is Indiana legit? It picked up its biggest win of the season last Saturday against Michigan, but a matchup with the Buckeyes is a much different test. A win here not only catapults Indiana into the driver's seat for a CFP spot, but it proves that this is not a one-and-done year for the Hoosiers. Curt Cignetti has a chance to rebrand what people think about Indiana football.
Now, before we get ahead of ourselves, Ohio State, on paper, should win this game. But the way this college football season has panned out, no win is a guarantee. The Buckeyes struggled against Nebraska in Week 9 — against the same Nebraska team that lost by 49 to the Hoosiers. It's a dangerous game to get carried away in matchup comparisons, but there could be some meaning in that one.
Ohio State needs this win to have a shot at the Big Ten championship, and so does Indiana. This Week 13 matchup will be must-watch TV.
No. 4 Penn State at Minnesota
Penn State is quietly sneaking around in the College Football Playoff race. The Nittany Lions don't have a realistic path to the Big Ten championship, but that is not necessarily a bad thing. Oregon will win out, and the winner of Indiana and Ohio State will meet the Ducks in Indianapolis. All Penn State must do is beat Purdue in Week 12, Minnesota and Maryland in Week 14. If it does, James Franklin's squad should receive a top-seven seed in the playoff bracket. The Nittany Lions' only loss is by a touchdown to Ohio State. That is a resume strong enough to make the playoffs.
However, Minnesota has proven competitive, beating Southern Cal by more than Penn State did. Now, this doesn't mean all that much, but we have seen Penn State struggle at times this season. One loss to an unranked Gopher team could send the blue and white down the polls.
Week 14
No. 3 Texas at No. 15 Texas A&M
This is the biggest remaining game for both programs, and it has a high chance of deciding who goes to the SEC championship — just like the Georgia vs. Tennessee game in Week 12. The winner of this game will likely have one conference loss, and this season, that is all it's going to take to make it to the conference title game in Atlanta. If Tennessee beats Georgia, it will be the Vols facing the winner of this matchup. However, if Tennessee loses, it will come down to a tiebreaker between a handful of SEC squads. But regardless, whichever team comes out on top in this Week 14 matchup will be in Atlanta with one conference loss.
No. 8 Notre Dame at Southern Cal
Let's say Notre Dame beats Southern Cal. One would think if the Irish have one loss, even though it is to Northern Illinois, they are in the playoffs. But two losses? No. The Irish will fall. The Trojans have been underwhelming this season, but all five of their losses are by one score or less, and three of those are by three points or less.
Now, Notre Dame is on a roll since the Northern Illinois loss. It would be surprising, but it seems like the historic stars could align for the Trojans to spoil the Irish's playoff hopes.
No. 7 Tennessee at Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt is out of playoff contention. Tennessee is not, and the Commodores would love nothing more than to spoil their in-state rivals' postseason aspirations. Vanderbilt has proven capable with a win over Alabama and a close loss to Texas. If the Vols enter this game with one loss, meaning they beat Georgia, Vanderbilt could knock them out of an opportunity to go to Atlanta for the SEC championship. If Tennessee enters this game with two losses, Vanderbilt could knock the Vols out of the playoffs. It may not play out this way, but if it comes down to this, I would keep my eye on the field goalpost in Nashville.
