With only five weeks remaining in the regular season, the College Football Playoff picture is coming together. The stakes get higher by the week, as one loss can knock many teams out of contention.
As we count down to selection day on Dec. 8, here are three games from each remaining regular season week that could have the biggest impact on the College Football Playoff.
Week 10
No. 4 Ohio State at No. 3 Penn State
The undefeated Nittany Lions host the one-loss Buckeyes at Beaver Stadium looking to beat Ohio State for the first time since the 2016-2017 season. Penn State, one of eight remaining undefeated teams, has the opportunity to put itself in a prime position for the Big Ten championship game, and likely a spot in the CFP with a win. If James Franklin's squad can get over the Buckeye hump, Penn State does not face another ranked team for the remainder of the season. A loss, however, knocks Penn State down to fourth in the Big Ten, assuming Indiana stays perfect in Week 10 as expected.
As for Ryan Day's team, they aren't necessarily in a must-win scenario, but this loss will force the Buckeyes to be perfect for the rest of the season still scheduled with a red-hot Indiana team down the road. A loss could take Ohio State's playoff hopes out of its control, as it will almost certainly be out of contention for the Big Ten championship game with two conference losses.
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No. 18 Pitt at No. 20 SMU
Both teams enter undefeated in ACC play, and whoever comes out on top solidifies their top-three ranking in the ACC alongside Clemson and Miami. The Panthers still have a matchup with the Tigers in mid-November, so a loss here would make a win against Clemson much-needed. If Pitt wins this one, it can likely afford a loss to the Tigers while keeping its playoff hopes intact.
For the Mustangs, they need this game even more after squeezing out an overtime win against Duke last weekend. SMU only has one ranked win against a now-unranked Louisville team, and without another ranked team on their schedule following this matchup, the Mustangs will need this one to have a resume impressive enough to be in consideration for the postseason.
Duke at No. 5 Miami
Duke is in a perfect position to play spoiler to an undefeated Miami team. The Canes have played in three one-score games this season against unranked opponents, and Duke has been competitive in every game it has played. Miami has not and will not face a ranked opponent all regular season. A loss at home could send Miami plummeting down the polls with a team like Pitt or SMU eyeing a spot in the ACC championship game as one of the two will still be undefeated in conference play.
Week 11
No. 2 Georgia at No. 19 Ole Miss
Week 11 marks the end of the Bulldog's ranked road test in the SEC. Kirby Smart's squad dropped the first in Tuscaloosa but bounced back against Texas in Austin. If Georgia leaves Oxford with a win, the Bulldogs will be in a great position to compete for a spot in the SEC championship and beyond. The red and black still have a matchup with Tennessee in mid-November. A loss to the Rebels will make the Tennessee game a likely must-win to stay in the hunt for a playoff spot.
On the other side, Ole Miss is in a must-win scenario. The Rebels have already dropped two SEC games. A third will put them out of SEC championship contention and more than likely outside of playoff contention as well. There are a few teams that could be in contention for the CFP with three losses, but with a home loss to a below .500 Kentucky team, the Rebels are not one of those teams.
No. 14 Alabama at No. 16 LSU
Both of these teams are in an Ole Miss situation— two losses and a third will likely knock them out of the CFP. LSU's situation is slightly better, with only one SEC loss compared to Alabama's two, but the Tigers will still have a slim shot of making the SEC championship game with two conference losses. Both teams can't afford a loss, and this game should deliver as it usually has historically.
Michigan at No. 13 Indiana
Indiana is 10-58 against Michigan all-time, with only two wins against the Wolverines since 1968 in 44 games. While Michigan is clearly having a down year, that is still a big historical roadblock to overcome. A win for the Hoosiers allows Curt Cignetti's squad to afford a loss the following week at Ohio State while remaining in CFP contention.
Week 12
No. 7 Tennessee at No. 2 Georgia
Assuming both teams enter this game still with one loss, which is the expected scenario, this game could decide who makes the SEC championship. It looks like a two-loss team cannot make the conference championship. There are five SEC teams with one conference loss or less. Likely, two of those teams will still have only one loss by the end of the regular season. Whoever comes out on top in this one should be in a great position to be playing in Atlanta for the conference title come December. The loser of this one won't be knocked from CFP contention, but they will certainly be on the bubble.
No. 11 Clemson at No. 18 Pitt
If Pitt gets by SMU in Week 10, this will easily be the biggest ACC game of the regular season. As previously mentioned, Miami doesn't have a ranked game on their schedule. Barring an unexpected loss, the Canes are a lock for the conference championship. This game should decide who meets Miami in Charlotte.
If Pitt wins after beating SMU, they are in a great position to complete a perfect regular season, locking them up for a CFP spot. If they lose, it will likely knock them out of conference championship contention and put some serious pressure on the Panthers.
If the Tigers lose, they will have two losses and likely no spot in the conference championship. They won't be eliminated, but they quickly become another bubble team.
No. 6 Texas at Arkansas
Texas should win this game. But Tennessee should have won this game as well. The Razorbacks won't be in contention, but they certainly would love to play as a villain to the Longhorns. Arkansas barely lost to a surging Texas A&M squad, beat the Vols and flashed their high-powered offense in Week 9 against Mississippi State.
The Longhorns have proven beatable after an ugly loss to Georgia and a close win against Vanderbilt, and you know Fayetteville will be rocking. But again, they should win. However, if they lose this one, it turns the Texas A&M game at the end of the regular season into a must-win for Steve Sarkisian's squad.
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Week 13
No. 21 Army at No. 8 Notre Dame
Navy couldn't get it done. Now it's Army's turn. Do the Black Knights have enough magic? It's hard to tell. But Northern Illinois did. Both teams need a ranked win to stay in contention for the CFP. Army, likely undefeated entering this game, will almost certainly lock up a playoff spot with a win. It will prove they can compete outside of the American conference that the Black Knights have run through to this point.
Notre Dame can't afford a loss. They already own arguably the worst loss of the season. Another loss to a non-power conference program is not a good look for a team eyeing a playoff spot.
No. 13 Indiana at No. 4 Ohio State
Is Indiana legit? Its matchup with Michigan will give us a small part of that answer. But this game will complete the story. The Hoosiers have never beaten Ohio State — 0-30-1 all time. A win here not only catapults Indiana into the driver's seat for a CFP spot but it proves that this is not a one-and-done year for the Hoosiers. Curt Cignetti has a chance to rebrand what people think about Indiana football.
Now, before we get ahead of ourselves, Ohio State, on paper, should win this game. But the way this college football season has panned out, no win is a guarantee. The Buckeyes struggled against Nebraska in Week 9 — against the same Nebraska team that lost by 49 to the Hoosiers. It's a dangerous game to get carried away in matchup comparisons, but there has to be some meaning in that one.
Ohio State needs this win to have a shot at the Big Ten championship, and so does Indiana. This Week 13 matchup will be must-watch TV.
No. 9 BYU at Arizona State
The Big 12 is interesting. Both Iowa State and BYU are undefeated. And the only one-loss team is Kansas State. The Cyclones are on a collision course with the Wildcats at the end of the regular season, but BYU doesn't have a ranked game left on its schedule. If Arizona State spoils the undefeated season, it makes the Big 12 playoff picture hazy.
BYU already ran over Kansas State, but the Cougars only beat Oklahoma State by three. And Kansas State beat Oklahoma State by 22. And Colorado and Iowa State are firmly in the mix as well. That being said, this will be a key game for the Cougars to pull out to make sure there aren't too many lingering questions about who is legit in the Big 12 come CFP selection day.
Week 14
No. 6 Texas at No. 10 Texas A&M
This is the biggest remaining game for both programs. Both Lone Star State teams have passed the hard part. They both took a hit, but each still sits firmly in contention for the CFP, and this game has a large chance of deciding who makes the SEC championship. Texas with one SEC loss, and TAMU with none. That should be what we see heading into this matchup. The loser will immediately be out of SEC championship contention, and with so many other variables in deciding the 12 CFP teams, it could knock one of them out of the playoffs.
No. 17 Kansas State at No. 11 Iowa State
This game is lining up to decide who will be in Arlington, Texas, for the Big 12 championship. With only so many spots to go around, it's hard to imagine three Big 12 teams making the 12-team playoff. Based on the rankings, it looks like the SEC and Big Ten could each send three, maybe four. Of course, the first CFP rankings will paint a better picture, but the Big 12 certainly doesn't have the same competitive appeal as the SEC and Big Ten this season.
So, this game will decide who gets a crack at BYU assuming the Cougars go perfect. And the loser, even with just one or two losses could get knocked out of CFP contention.
No. 7 Tennessee at Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt is out of playoff contention. Tennessee is not, and the Commodores would love nothing more than to spoil their in-state rivals' postseason aspirations. Vanderbilt has proven capable with a win over Alabama and a close loss to Texas. If the Vols enter this game with one loss, meaning they beat Georgia, Vanderbilt could knock them out of an opportunity to go to Atlanta for the SEC championship. If Tennessee enters this game with two losses, Vanderbilt could knock the Vols out of the playoffs. It may not play out this way, but if it comes down to this, I would keep my eye on the field goalpost in Nashville.
