Time flies when you're watching football. At least, I think that's how the saying goes. Now that we're one month into the college football season, it's time to look at how the College Football Playoff could shake out. Five conferences will send automatic qualifiers to the 12-team tournament, so which teams are best positioned to win their conferences and be ranked high enough to be an auto bid? Let's take a look.
ACC — Clemson
The ACC currently has three undefeated teams right now: Miami (Fla.), Pitt and Duke. The latter of that group — Duke — might have the worst chance to win the conference right now with a road trip to Miami ahead. I'll give Miami the nod and place the Hurricanes above the Blue Devils in that game.
Pitt is undefeated, but the Panthers host Clemson and visits Louisville in back-to-back weeks. I doubt the Panthers come out of that stretch unscathed. About the Cardinals, yes they are ranked and undefeated in conference play, but they still play Clemson, Pitt, Miami and Boston College. Louisville probably won't win the ACC.
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That leaves Miami. However, we can't forget about the top-25 team that is Clemson either. The Tigers get Louisville at home and have a road trip to Pitt. Miami's hardest game on the schedule will be a road trip to Louisville. I think even if either program loses a game, they'll still meet in the conference championship game as the top two teams.
When they meet in Charlotte, I'll give the edge to Clemson, a team averaging 55 points per game since a season-opening loss to Georgia. I like how the Tigers have responded to adversity to start the year, and I think Cade Klubnik and crew will have plenty of momentum entering the ACC title game and will win.
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Big Ten — Ohio State
Ohio State hasn't been challenged in a game yet this year. While that is likely to change with future road trips to Oregon and Penn State, I'll need to see the most talented roster in college football get pushed before I say they'll lose.
The Buckeyes also get Indiana and Michigan to close the season at home, but Indiana may have a letdown after playing the Wolverines the week prior — and Ohio State has a legitimate quarterback; Michigan does not.
Oregon and Penn State are my top contenders to meet the Buckeyes in the conference title game, but I think Ohio State's top-three run defense in the FBS will put all of the pressure on Drew Allar, something the Nittany Lions would like to avoid. The Ducks have the best shot at knocking off the Buckeyes, but Oregon's early season struggles create doubt in their ability to knock off an elite opponent.
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Big 12 — Iowa State
The Big 12 is the most wide-open conference in college football with a shot at a CFP berth. BYU and Iowa State are undefeated, Colorado has two of the top-10 players in the country, Kansas State and Utah can't be counted out, Texas Tech is 2-0 in conference play and Arizona was a preseason top-25 team. So who's the pick to win the conference?
I'm going with Iowa State. I think the Cyclones will remain undefeated entering November with an October schedule that features Baylor, West Virginia and UCF. Iowa State starts November after a bye week hosting Texas Tech, a favorable setup for the Cyclones. Then, there's nothing I've seen from Kansas or Cincinnati this year that would lead me to believe Iowa State can't start the season 10-0.
Iowa State's hardest two games will come at the end of the season when it visits Utah before hosting Kansas State in the season finale. Luckily for the Cyclones, they may only have to win one of those games to clinch a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game.
Iowa State has the best shot at making the Big 12 title game, so they are my pick to win the conference.
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SEC — Texas
Let's list the top contenders for the SEC title and break them down, one by one.
Texas A&M is undefeated in conference play, but the Aggies lost to Notre Dame and beat Bowling Green by only six points. Let's be realistic here.
Georgia just lost to Alabama and still visits Texas and Ole Miss. The Bulldogs are finishing with two conference losses and missing the title game.
LSU still plays Alabama, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Oklahoma and Arkansas. That's a gauntlet where I think the Tigers win three of those games.
Ole Miss lost at home to Kentucky. If the Rebels let that one slip, how can one trust them in big games down the stretch, or even the SEC title game if they won out?
Missouri, while undefeated, played close games with Boston College and Vanderbilt. Yes, both programs are exceeding expectations this year, but the elite team of the SEC shouldn't have their greatness questioned against those two schools. Missouri's schedule could let them make the CFP, but I don't think their conference record will be good enough for a title game appearance.
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Alabama showed a lot in the win over Georgia. The Tide also almost let that game slip away. I think those late-game mistakes are signs that there are chinks in the armor in Alabama. That's why I have them losing to the next SEC team on this list.
Tennessee gets Alabama at home. I think the Vols — backed by one of the most balanced, yet explosive offenses in the country — knock off the Tide. From there, the only other difficult game figures to be a road trip to Georgia, but if Alabama can light up the Bulldog secondary, so can Josh Heupel and crew. The Volunteers make the SEC title game.
I like Texas to finish the SEC regular season undefeated. The Longhorns showed that whether it was with Quinn Ewers or Arch Manning, this team could step up around the quarterback to hold its own.
So a battle of orange UTs in the SEC championship. Texas vs. Tennessee. I'm going to go with Texas to win this one. The Longhorns showed it can stop the run when it played Michigan, and I think Ewers will be able to keep pace with a one-dimensional Tennessee offensive attack.
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Mountain West — Boise State
I think Boise State gets the final College Football Playoff spot. The Broncos have the best offense-only skill position in the country in running back Ashton Jeanty. Jeanty is a Heisman contender who's putting up numbers that bring to mind Barry Sanders. He's the engine that makes Boise State go — and he's showing no signs of slowing down.
As a team, Boise State played Oregon to a three-point game, so the Broncos are battle-tested. Even with a road trip to UNLV looming, I'll still pick Boise State since they'll have the best player on the field in that game — and every game they'll play the rest of the year.
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