12 potential FCS-over-FBS upsets in the 2024 college football season

Every year, FCS teams knock off their higher-level Division I counterparts in the FBS. We saw four FCS-over-FBS upsets in the 2023 college football season, highlighted by Sacramento State's defeat of the Pac-12's Stanford. 

Here are the games in 2024 that could join the list next and should be on your radar.

Week 0

• Montana State over New Mexico

Montana State will open the season as a top-10 — if not top-five — FCS team to open the year. New Mexico only won four FBS games last year. A top FCS team vs. a bottom-tier FBS team is always one to watch for an upset.

WHO'S NEXT: Here is every FCS vs FBS game scheduled for 2024

Week 1

• Lafayette over Buffalo

Buffalo doesn't have its top two rushers, top wide receiver, top tight end or starting quarterback from last season. While the offensive line and defense are solid, the offensive skill positions for the Bulls leave much to be desired entering the year. Meanwhile, Lafayette returns a Walter Payton Award candidate on offense in running back JaMar Curtis and the reigning Patriot League freshman of the year in defensive lineman Jaylon Joseph. I would not be surprised if Buffalo — a program that's lost to two different Patriot League teams in as many seasons — falls to the preseason favorite in the conference again in 2024.

UPSETS: See every FCS-over-FBS upset | Here's the FCS blueprint to beating a ranked FBS team

• North Dakota State over Colorado

All eyes will be on this game: North Dakota State vs. Colorado. An FCS powerhouse vs. Coach Prime and crew. Here's why the Bison should have the Buffaloes on upset alert. 

North Dakota State has great talent in the trenches, putting out NFL-level offensive linemen almost yearly across the last half-decade. That should help the Bison, who averaged 5.7 yards per carry last season, control the line of scrimmage against a Colorado run defense that ranked in the bottom 17 percent last season.

Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders was sacked 52 times last year, and North Dakota State had the fifth-most sacks of any FCS school. NDSU has some history vs. the FBS too. The Bison have won six of their last seven games against FBS foes, including then-No. 13 Iowa in 2016.

We could see an upset spoil Prime Time's 2024 debut.

• Sacramento State over San Jose State

Yes, San Jose State tied for the Mountain West championship in 2023, but this is not the same team. SJSU lost its head coach, and he took plenty of his players with him to Arizona. The Spartans will have to replace its quarterback and with a lot of transfers, they'll need time to gel.

Sacramento State returns arguably the best offensive lineman in the FCS in Jackson Slater — plus three other OL starters — and quarterback Kaiden Bennett. Bennett will throw to three of his top four wideouts from last year, and that continuity offensively will allow the Hornets to hit the ground running in 2024. FBS teams should watch out for Sacramento State.

• South Dakota State over Oklahoma State

The two-time defending FCS champions open their season with Oklahoma State. The Jackrabbits haven't lost a regular-season game since 2022, by four points to FBS Iowa. With plenty of NFL talent on the roster, including reigning Walter Payton Award winner Mark Gronwoski at quarterback, this could be a popular upset pick.

BACK-TO-BACK: How South Dakota State repeated as FCS champions in 2023

• UC Davis over California

UC Davis has a talented roster. Miles Hastings is a top-20 quarterback in the FCS, running back Lan Larison is the preseason Big Sky Player of the Year, defensive lineman Zach Kennedy can set the edge and Rex Connors has an argument as the best defensive back in the FCS. That talent alone gives them a fighting shot against an FBS opponent, but against Cal, they could win. The key to stopping Cal will be shutting down All-American level running back Jaydn Ott, but UC Davis has only allowed one 100-yard rusher in its last 15 games dating back to 2022.

• Southern Illinois over BYU

Southern Illinois has won an FBS game in each of the last two seasons. While BYU is a step up from Northern Illinois and Northwestern, the Cougars were only predicted to finish 13th in the Big 12 in 2024. While the Salukis have a lot to replace in 2024 at quarterback and running back, I'll add SIU to the list in hopes it keeps the streak going. 

GAMES TO WATCH: The 20 best nonconference games for the 2024 FCS season

Week 2

• South Dakota over Wisconsin

Could South Dakota land the upset of the Big Ten's Wisconsin? I think it's doable. The Coyotes might be a top-five team in the FCS by Week 2 and return plenty of high-level FCS talent like quarterback Aidan Bouman, wide receiver Carter Bell and defensive lineman Nick Gaes. The latter will be one of the keys to an FBS upset here, as winning the battle in the trenches will go a long way to shutting down Wisconsin's offensive attack. 

CHANGES: What the past FCS playoffs might've looked like under 2024's new 16 seeded teams change

• Chattanooga over Georgia State

Chattanooga figures to be one of the best teams in the SoCon this year, led by returning quarterback Chase Artopoeus and a stout offensive line. Both will be needed to knock off FBS opponent Georgia State. However, after watching last year's Georgia State team narrowly squeak by Rhode Island, I think a Chattanooga squad in 2024 that's better than last year's Rams could get past the Panthers in Atlanta.

• Sacramento State over Fresno State

For all the same reasons Sacramento State could beat San Jose State, the Hornets could beat Fresno State. I do think Fresno State is and will be a better team than San Jose State in 2024, so the test will be a bit harder. The key to a win here for the Hornets will be slowing down Fresno State quarterback Mikey Keene and running back Malik Sherrod.

NEW FACES, NEW PLACES: Tracking FCS conference realignment changes in 2024

Week 3

• Morgan State over Ohio

Defense wins championships, but does defense win FCS-over-FBS upsets? In 19 of the last 26 FCS-over-FBS wins (73 percent), the losing FBS team has scored three touchdowns or fewer. Morgan State allowed 21.40 points per game last season and again project to have one of the better defenses in the FCS. Ohio only scored 24.3 points per game last year. If the Bears can step up defensively, this game could be on upset watch in the fourth quarter.

2024 HBCU football: Following the 2024 HBCU football season from start to finish

Week 5

• UT Martin over Kennesaw State

Kennesaw State is in its first season in the FBS. In its last two years in the FCS, the Owls won a combined eight games. UT Martin won eight games in 2023 alone. If this were an FCS game on the schedule, many pundits would pick the Skyhawks. It would surprise no one if UT Martin pulls off the upset here.