What the past FCS playoffs might've looked like under 2024's new 16 seeded teams change

For the first time, the FCS playoffs will seed 16 teams in a 24-team bracket, beginning with the 2024-25 season. , and I later directly confirmed the reports to be true with the NCAA. In all, the playoff changes mean that first round games will have teams seeded Nos. 9-16.

Yet, the new seeding begs the question: What impact would 16 seeds have had on past editions of the FCS playoffs? I answered that question and more with a reseeding of past FCS playoff brackets.

A few guidelines I followed in this reseeding:

• The top eight seeds from previous years will stay the same
• The 24 playoff teams will stay the same
• Reseeding will not take into account who won a first-round playoff game

That said, let's take a look at how things may have ended up.

2023 Playoffs

Original top eight seeds

1. South Dakota State
2. Montana
3. South Dakota
4. Idaho
5. UAlbany
6. Montana State
7. Furman
8. Villanova

Teams that would round out the top 16

9. Austin Peay

Austin Peay closed the season on a nine-game winning streak to win the shared auto-bid between the ASUN and WAC. Austin Peay's only FCS loss came to Southern Illinois — another playoff team. With one FCS loss and a conference title, the Governors earn the No. 9 seed.

10. North Dakota State

No, North Dakota State didn't beat a Dakota school in the regular season, but the Bison closed the season strong with an 8-3 record. NDSU was the highest non-seeded team in the Coaches Poll after the regular season and would've been a scary matchup from the top-eight seed for any team seeded ahead of it.

LOOKING BACK: Here's everything that happened in the 2023 FCS Playoffs

11. Delaware

The Blue Hens were a regular-season-ending loss to Villanova away from finishing tied for the CAA title. Delaware only had two FCS losses in 2023.

12. North Dakota

North Dakota had the best FCS win of any at-large team with its 49-24 drubbing of North Dakota State. Yet, the Fighting Hawks were only 7-4, and their win over the Bison was their only ranked win, keeping UND from rising higher.

13. Richmond

I know what you're asking, "How does Richmond come in two spots below Delaware even though the Spiders shared the CAA title and the Blue Hens didn't?" 

The answer to that question lies in Richmond's two losses to Morgan State and Richmond that came before the Spiders went on a six-game win streak to close the season. Those were bad losses, and Richmond also didn't have a then-currently-ranked win at the season's end. Throw in that the Spiders were ranked at No. 25 in the Coaches Poll, and you'll have all the ingredients that would only seed the CAA co-champs at No. 13.

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14. Southern Illinois

Southern Illinois defeated Austin Peay and had an FBS win in 2024, but it also had four FCS losses. The two quality wins are what earn the Salukis a seed here.

15. Lafayette

Lafayette won the Patriot League thanks to an impressive win over Holy Cross. With a conference title and one FCS loss, the Leopards get a seed over FCS bubble teams.

16. North Carolina Central

The debate for the No. 16 seed between North Carolina Central and 2023's last four teams in the FCS playoffs — Chattanooga, Mercer, Sacramento State and Youngstown State — would've been intense.

Should the Eagles get a seed when they couldn't even win the MEAC? That would've been the question of the day.

I think North Carolina Central would've got the final seed with its only FCS loss coming to Howard. Sacramento State lost its season-ending game to UC Davis, Mercer lost to Chattanooga head-to-head and Youngstown State... well, the Penguins probably had the worst resume of the last four teams in 2023. 

The debate likely would've come down to Chattanooga or North Carolina Central, and I think the committee not having the Eagles in the last four in is telling enough.

HBCU RECAP: What happened in the 2023 HBCU football season | 2023 Celebration Bowl | Final 2023 rankings

A glimpse at what the bracket may have looked like

This potential bracket did not do the exact mapping out for regionalization, only "guesstimated" regionalization without directly looking at mileage. This potential bracket also didn't check for any first round, regular season rematches, which won't be allowed in the new reseeding model.

ORIGINAL BRACKET: Click or tap here to view the original 2023 FCS playoff bracket

Does the 2023 FCS champion still win the title?

South Dakota State won the 2023 FCS championship going 15-0. In this reseeded bracket, I don't see any new team on the same side of the bracket that would give them trouble.

The question then becomes, "Can any of the new teams on Montana's side of the bracket not only beat Montana but also beat South Dakota State?"

I think that the answer would be no and no. The Jackrabbits would still run the table.

2022 Playoffs

Original top-eight seeds

1. South Dakota State
2. Sacramento State
3. North Dakota State
4. Montana State
5. William & Mary
6. Samford
7. UIW
8. Holy Cross

Teams that would round out the top 16

9. Weber State 

Weber State finished 9-2 and third in the Big Sky conference. The Wildcats have notable wins over Montana and Eastern Washington, and their only two losses on the year came to Montana State and Sacramento State, two of the top four seeds. Weber State would get the nine seed over Furman because, as we saw in 2022, the Committee was higher on Montana than any of Furman’s SoCon wins.

10. Furman 

Furman finished 9-2 with one FCS loss to No. 6 seed Samford. Furman’s three ranked wins came to ETSU, Chattanooga and Mercer, but none of those teams made the playoffs. One FCS loss gets the Paladins a seed over the CAA teams, but a lack of a win over a playoff win slots Furman at No. 10.

11. New Hampshire 

These next three CAA teams all finished with three regular season losses, so I know the debates in the Committee room in 2022 would have been intense. I think the Committee would ultimately give New Hampshire the highest seed of the trio of CAA teams because the Wildcats finished 7-1 in CAA play, only losing out on the conference’s auto-bid due to a tiebreaker.

12. Elon 

Elon finished 8-3 in 2022, with one of its wins coming in double-overtime over Richmond. Head-to-head matters, giving the Phoenix a higher seed than the Rams.

LOOKING BACK: Here's everything that happened in the 2022 FCS playoffs

13. Richmond

Richmond has quality wins in the CAA over Delaware and New Hampshire while also beating Saint Francis (PA) — the NEC champion. Those wins, combined with FCS losses to seeded teams, earn the Spiders the No. 13 seed.

14. Fordham 

Fordham would come in as the 14-seed in 2022. Fordham only had one FCS loss — better than the CAA at-larges seeded ahead of it — but it had no wins against a team with a winning record. The lack of quality wins keeps the Rams from receiving a higher seed.

Yet, 2022 was the year of the Tim DeMorat show, a Walter Payton finalist at quarterback. DeMorat led Fordham to a hard-fought overtime loss against an undefeated Holy Cross squad. That loss is better than the FCS loss of the team seeded below it, keeping Fordham in place at No. 14.

15. Southeastern Louisiana 

Southeastern Louisiana won the Southland auto-bid over a top-10 UIW team, thanks to a head-to-head win. The Lions only had one FCS loss, albeit to an FCS transitioning Texas A&M-Commerce. That said, a top-10 win and a conference title is worthy of a seed.

16. Eastern Kentucky

Eastern Kentucky would’ve gotten the final seed in 2022. The Colonels won the ASUN-WAC shared bid with a 7-4 record. EKU defeated Southeast Missouri State — a playoff team — and had the only FBS win over a bowl-eligible opponent in 2022. While three FCS losses make things a debate for the final spot, two of those three losses came against FBS transitioning teams.

I think the Colonels get the nod over Idaho and North Dakota, as the Vandals would likely be the last team in consideration for a seed after Montana and Delaware lost in its final regular season game. EKU’s conference title and FBS win pushed it over the edge after Idaho suffered a blowout loss to UC Davis, just two weeks before selections, and North Dakota finished third in a weak year for the Missouri Valley Football Conference.

HBCU RECAP: What happened in the 2022 HBCU football season | 2022 Celebration Bowl | Final 2022 rankings

A glimpse at what the bracket may have looked like

This potential bracket did not do the exact mapping out for regionalization, only "guesstimated" regionalization without directly looking at mileage. This potential bracket also didn't check for any first-round regular-season rematches, which won't be allowed in the new reseeding model.

ORIGINAL BRACKET: Click or tap here to view the original 2022 FCS playoff bracket

Does the 2022 FCS champion still win the title?

South Dakota State won the 2023 FCS championship, going 14-1. In this reseeded bracket, I think the Jackrabbits would have a harder first game, with North Dakota likely advancing to force a rematch. Then, the Holy Cross/Weber State matchup would likely make the quarterfinal round South Dakota State’s toughest game of the playoffs again. However, the Jackrabbits were just too good at too many positions in 2022 for me to see them faltering early in the bracket.

I think Montana State again makes the semifinals, another win for SDSU. On the other side of the bracket, I think North Dakota State is still the best team and will again create a Dakota Marker rematch for the title.

Even in a 16-seeded bracket, South Dakota State would win its first title.

2021 Playoffs

Original top-eight seeds

1. Sam Houston
2. North Dakota State
3. James Madison
4. Villanova
5. Sacramento State
6. Montana
7. ETSU
8. Montana State

Teams that would round out the top 16

9. Eastern Washington

Eastern Washington would have been the No. 9 seed in 2021 with a 9-2 record. The Eagles had the eventual Walter Payton Award winner Eric Barriere to lead an explosive offense, the No. 6 rank in the country entering the final weekend and notable wins over Montana and UNLV. Moreover, Eastern Washington’s two losses to Weber State and Montana State came by a combined four points.

10. Kennesaw State

Kennesaw State finished 10-1, undefeated against the FCS, with the Big South title in 2021, but didn’t receive a top-eight seed. That included a ranked win over Monmouth in the final regular season week. However, if the FCS Committee didn’t think the Owls were worthy of a top-eight seed because of their strength of schedule, I think the Committee might also think Eastern Washington should be seeded ahead of it.

11. UT Martin

UT Martin won the OVC in 2021 with a 9-2 record. While the Skyhawks did lose to Southeast Missouri State in its final game, knocking it out of the top-eight seed conversation, UT Martin split with SEMO on the year. With just one FCS loss, the Skyhawks are seeded 11th. 

LOOKING BACK: Here's everything that happened in the 2021 FCS Playoffs

12. South Dakota State 

If not for a South Dakota Hail Mary to knock off South Dakota State, the Jackrabbits would’ve been a top-eight seed in 2021. However, that touchdown did happen, and South Dakota State finished 8-3 with three FCS losses.

Yet, all three South Dakota State losses came to playoff teams and it had two elite wins over North Dakota State and FBS opponent Colorado State. Those wins and quality losses earn the Jackrabbits the No. 12 seed.

13. Missouri State 

Missouri State finished 8-3 with two FCS losses in 2021. One loss was a quality defeat to North Dakota State, while the other, to Youngstown State, is more glaring. Yet, Missouri State’s reason for receiving a No. 13 seed is wins over playoff teams in South Dakota, Southern Illinois and Northern Iowa — plus another quality win over Central Arkansas.

14. UIW 

UIW finished 9-2 with reigning Jerry Rice Award-winning quarterback Cam Ward at the helm. The Cardinals had two FCS losses, including a resume-weakening loss to McNeese, but its wins over FBS opponent Texas State and fellow playoff team Southeastern Louisiana were better wins than any other team in contention for the final few seeds.

15. UC Davis 

UC Davis wouldn’t have appeared until the No. 15 seed after losing its final two games to Eastern Washington and Sacramento State. That losing streak followed an earlier loss to Idaho State. Those three losses outweigh wins over Tulsa and Weber State, keeping UC Davis from rising to the top-10 status it had before November.

16. Holy Cross

Holy Cross gets the final seed as a 9-2 conference champion. Quality wins give the Crusaders the final seed over a Florida A&M team with one FCS loss and Stephen F. Austin and Southeastern Louisiana, teams with two FCS losses. Holy Cross’ FBS win over UConn and nonconference win over Monmouth also gives leverage.

HBCU RECAP: What happened in the 2021 HBCU football season | 2021 Celebration Bowl | Final 2021 Rankings

A glimpse at what the bracket may have looked like

This potential bracket did not do the exact mapping out for regionalization, only "guesstimated" regionalization without directly looking at mileage. This potential bracket also didn't check for any first-round regular-season rematches, which won't be allowed in the new reseeding model.

ORIGINAL BRACKET: Click or tap here to view the original 2021 FCS playoff bracket

Does the 2021 FCS champion still win the title?

The 2021 season gets interesting. I think on the bottom half of the bracket we still get a North Dakota State-James Madison semifinal, which the Bison win as they did in real life. However, North Dakota State's championship opponent might've changed. An 8-9 Montana State-Eastern Washington second-round matchup would've been a regular season rematch of a game the Bobcats won by three points. It's hard to beat any team twice, even if the second game is at home.

Hypothetically, let's say Eastern Washington wins that rematch. That would set a 1-9 quarterfinal matchup between defending champion Sam Houston and Eastern Washington. The Bearkats had plenty of defensive struggles in the 2021 playoffs, allowing 42 points in each of its games. Against Walter Payton winner Eric Barriere and crew, Eastern Washington would outscore Sam Houston to advance to the semifinals.

I still see South Dakota State advancing from its section of the bracket to the semifinals, making the semifinal matchup the Jackrabbits vs. the Eagles. In this hypothetical matchup, I think South Dakota State's defense steps up to the task. In reality, the Jackrabbits forced 10 turnovers while holding opponents to just an average of 13.6 first-half points during its run to the semifinals in fall 2021. The defense, combined with a two-headed rushing attack of Pierre Strong Jr. and Isaiah Davis that could keep Eastern Washington's offense off the field, gets South Dakota State back to the national championship game.

FCS fans would've been treated to a Dakota Marker rematch a year earlier in this hypothetical 16-seeded bracket. When South Dakota State and North Dakota State met in the regular season, the Jackrabbits got out to a 24-7 lead in the first half, controlling the game. While I said earlier, "It's hard to beat any team twice," South Dakota State differs from Montana State with an experienced team fresh off of a spring run to the title game and a veteran quarterback and head coach. 

It's no guarantee that North Dakota State wins the 2021 FCS title if the bracket had 16 teams seeded.