Way-too-early 2023 FCS playoff bracket preseason predictions

The calendar has turned to August, and FCS teams are returning to practice. To get into the football spirit, it's time to predict the entire 24-team 2023 FCS playoff field ahead of the preseason polls and before any games.

Before diving into the bracket, I'll explain my process for selecting the predicted field. In this bracket projection, the selected teams are NOT an indication of the FCS playoff selection committee picks, but rather these picks are my opinion, taking into consideration preseason data while projecting future play through the regular season.

The predicted bracket follows the format of the FCS playoffs with 24 teams. There are 10 automatic bids this year as the Big South and OVC are sharing a bid for the first time. That leaves 14 at-large bids. Eight teams will be seeded and receive a first-round bye.

Now that that's out of the way, let's get into my 2023 FCS playoff bracket predictions.

2023 FCS playoff bracket preseason predictions

FCS automatic bids

The Ivy, MEAC and SWAC conference champions don't get automatic bids to the FCS playoffs as their champions don't participate in the postseason tournament. That said, my predictions for the remaining conference title winners are as follows:

Central Arkansas is my predicted winner of the again shared ASUN-WAC bid (unofficially known as the United Athletic Conference). The Bears return quarterback Will McElvain, who should be better in his second year in the system. He'll be joined in the backfield by an elite 1-2 punch between Darius Hale and ShunDerrick Powell. The offensive talents, plus Buck Buchanan finalist David Walker on defense, should carry Central Arkansas to the playoffs.

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Montana State gets the nod out of the Big Sky, which could again be in contention for five playoff bids this year. The Bobcats have a difficult conference road schedule with trips to Weber State, Sacramento State, Idaho and Montana, but return the best quarterback tandem in the FCS in Tommy Mellott and Sean Chambers. That experience for coach Brent Vigen, who's quickly established himself as one of the best in the FCS, should allow Montana State to finish the season with no more than one conference loss.

Southeast Missouri State has quarterback Paxton DeLaurent and running back Geno Hess, both arguably top-five in the FCS at their positions. Those two can carry the Redhawks to the first-ever Big South-OVC title.

William & Mary should thank the CAA schedule makers as the Tribe avoided playing New Hampshire, Delaware, Rhode Island and Villanova this fall — four of the top six potential opponents in the CAA preseason poll. With that schedule, the Tribe take the CAA.

South Dakota State might not lose a Missouri Valley game this year — and I say that with the Dakota Marker on the schedule. The Jackrabbits have won the last four meetings against North Dakota State, including last year's national championship game. While SDSU has a new head coach, they also have the most talented roster in the FCS. That talent should help the Jackrabbits navigate any early new coaching tenure struggles.

🏆: How South Dakota State won the 2022 FCS title

The NEC automatic bid favorites entering the season are Saint Francis (PA) and Merrimack, but the latter is my early auto-bid pick. It's Merrimack's first year for playoff eligibility after finishing 6-1 in conference play last year. I think the Warriors can get over the hump this year after the Red Flash lost quarterback Cole Doyle's top two receivers this offseason.

Holy Cross finished the 2022 regular season undefeated without All-American linebacker Jacob Dobbs, who missed most of the season due to injury. Dobbs is back, as is one of the best quarterbacks in the FCS, Matthew Sluka. The Crusaders should run away with the Patriot League title as Fordham looks to replace a Walter Payton Award finalist at quarterback.

While St. Thomas was predicted to win the Pioneer Football League at media day, the Tommies are ineligible for the playoffs until 2025. That leaves Davidson as my automatic bid because the Wildcats have stability at head coach compared to other contending teams Dayton and San Diego with new coaches.

Samford and Furman tied for first in the preseason SoCon coaches poll, but I have the Bulldogs prevailing. Samford plays Furman at home, and the Bulldogs will be more battle-tested after games against Chattanooga and ETSU before their matchup with the Paladins. The SoCon should be a tightly contested conference once again, and the Samford-Furman head-to-head matchup could be a difference-maker in the standings.

Southeastern Louisiana gets the Southland bid over UIW, which made the FCS semifinals last year. UIW lost many pieces in the offseason, and it's too early to tell if they will gel or not. Plus, Southeastern Louisiana grabbed quarterback Zachary Clement out of the transfer portal. The last time we saw the reigning Southland champion replace its starting quarterback with an All-Southland quarterback out of the transfer portal, said quarterback won the Walter Payton Award. Southeastern Louisiana should be the favorite here.

QB1: The top 10 returning FCS quarterbacks in 2023

Projected FCS at-large bids

• Idaho | Big Sky
• Montana | Big Sky
• Sacramento State | Big Sky
• UC Davis | Big Sky
• Delaware | CAA
• Monmouth | CAA
• New Hampshire | CAA
• Rhode Island | CAA
• North Dakota State | MVFC
• Northern Iowa | MVFC
• Youngstown State | MVFC
• Furman | SoCon
• Eastern Kentucky | ASUN-WAC
• UIW | Southland

Big Sky at-larges

The Big Sky gets four at-large bids in this way-too-early preseason predictions. Idaho has reigning Jerry Rice Award winner Gevani McCoy and possibly the best receiver in the FCS, Hayden Hatten. Idaho also gets Sacramento State, Montana and Montana State all at home in the Kibbie Dome. With home-field advantage, I think the Vandals win two of those three games to boost their playoff resume. UC Davis should be better this year too as top quarterback Miles Hastings returns. The Aggies won five of its last six games to close 2022, and that momentum should carry them through a favorable schedule.

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Montana was on the FCS bubble in 2022. The Grizzlies will need a 5-0 start to stay off the bubble this year, including a win over the two-time defending DII national champion Ferris State. If Montana gets through the early part of the season unscathed, the always competitive program should find a way to get to the eight-win mark to get into the playoffs.

Sacramento State gets the final at-large bid from the Big Sky after not winning the conference for the first time since 2018. The Hornets have a difficult schedule ahead where they play Idaho, Montana and UC Davis on the road. I think Sacramento State can pick up one ranked road win to boost its playoff resume, overcoming the challenges of replacing a head coach, quarterback and running back on offense and an NFL draft pick on defense. 

CAA at-larges

Rhode Island's first game of the year is against the FBS's Georgia State, a team that finished 4-8 last year. That's a winnable game for a Rams team filled with returning talent. Once conference play starts, Rhode Island's biggest tests against Richmond and New Hampshire both come at home. I think this schedule should allow Rhode Island to go from one of the first teams out last year to a team in contention for a seed this fall if all goes right. Elsewhere in the CAA, New Hampshire and Delaware should also return to the playoffs after both programs won a playoff game in 2022.

The final CAA at-large spot goes to Monmouth. Monmouth will be one of the last teams in, but I think a strong start to the season behind recent Walter Payton Award finalist Jaden Shirden gets the Hawks into the postseason over fellow CAA teams Richmond, Elon and Villanova.

UPSETS: A complete history of every FCS win vs. FBS teams

MVFC at-larges

I have South Dakota State running the MVFC table this year, so that hands one loss apiece to North Dakota State and Northern Iowa. I think both teams will have one conference loss entering their Week 12 matchup to close the year, meaning both teams will make the playoffs.

Elsewhere, I have Youngstown State earning the MVFC's final playoff berth. The Penguins avoided playing North Dakota State this year, and they get to play other mid-level MVFC teams Southern Illinois, Illinois State and Missouri State at home. When combined with a favorable nonconference schedule, Youngstown State should make the playoffs for the first time since the FCS title run in 2016.

Other at-larges

Furman will be neck-and-neck for a spot at the top of the SoCon this year and a second-place finish in the conference earns the Paladins an at-large bid.

Eastern Kentucky plays out of conference games against Southeast Missouri State and Gardner Webb. Eastern Kentucky beat Southeast Missouri State last year, and have the potential to avenge last year's 11-point playoff loss to Gardner-Webb. Yet, a strong nonconference run doesn't alleviate concern from a run defense that was in the bottom 10 of the FCS last year. That run defense against Central Arkansas on the road is the difference between the Colonels being the ASUN-WAC champion and an at-large team.

UIW might not win the Southland conference, but it should be favored to win every other FCS game on its schedule, even with all the changes to its roster and coaching staff. At 9-2, the Cardinals get an at-large spot after making the semifinals a year ago.

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Bubble teams

• Gardner-Webb | Big South-OVC
• North Dakota | MVFC
• Austin Peay | ASUN-WAC
• Richmond | CAA
• Villanova | CAA
• Mercer | SoCon

Seeds

1. Montana State
2. South Dakota State
3. William & Mary
4. North Dakota State
5. Holy Cross
6. Northern Iowa
7. Samford
8. Idaho

The battle for the top seed in the FCS might be decided in a Week 2 matchup between Montana State and South Dakota State. Montana State should be the leader in the clubhouse entering the season because of its stability at the head coaching position. Following those two, CAA champion William & Mary grabs the No. 3 seed after a dominant conference play showing.

Holy Cross and the winner of the SoCon (Samford in this bracket) also will get a seed this year. I think Holy Cross will be in the conversation for a top-four seed this year with another successful season when the committee considers last year's playoff success. While Samford will grab a seed as the SoCon champ for the second straight year.

📊: Way-too-early FCS tiers for every team entering the 2023 season

Northern Iowa opens the season with an Iowa State team that finished 4-8 last year before heading to Weber State. With Theo Day at the helm, UNI has what it takes to beat an FBS team, and entering the season, the Panthers are ahead of a Weber State team that must replace its leading quarterback, running back and wide receiver from a year ago. A strong start to the season will have the Panthers in position for a seed heading into Week 12 against North Dakota State. However, the Bison have the edge in what will be a battle for a top-four seed.

Idaho gets the final seed in these way-too-early predictions because I'm more confident in the Vandals finishing second in the Big Sky than any one team finishing second in the CAA.