In the midst of college football's bowl season, one of the many storylines – especially for fans whose teams have completed their seasons – is identifying the frontrunners for the Heisman Trophy. Sure, the first regular season games won't be played for roughly another nine months but it's fun to speculate.
But what if we can look at past winners – more specifically what past winners accomplished in the season before they won the Heisman – to see if there's a familiar career arc for the award's winners. Are most Heisman Trophy winners breakout players or were they previously Heisman Trophy finalists who got even better?
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Here is a look at the Heisman Trophy winners since the start of the BCS era (through 2017) with a comparison of their production in the season before they won the Heisman and the season when they won the award. The statistics below do not include bowl or playoff games since the Heisman is awarded prior to the start of bowl season.
There's also a category for whether the player's team made the BCS National Championship or College Football Playoff, as well as the record of each player's team entering bowl season.
| Season | Player | Year Before Heisman | Heisman Year | BCS/CFP? | Heisman Year Pre-Bowl Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | Baker Mayfield | 3,669 passing yards, 38 TDs, 8 INTs | 4,340 passing yards, 41 TDs, 5 INTs | Yes | 12-1 |
| 2016 | Lamar Jackson | 1,613 passing yards, 10 TDs, 8 INTs; 734 rushing yards, 9 TDs | 3,390 passing yards, 30 TDs, 9 INTs; 1,538 rushing yards, 21 TDs | No | 9-3 |
| 2015 | Derrick Henry | 895 rushing yards, 10 TDs | 1,986 rushing yards, 23 TDs | Yes | 12-1 |
| 2014 | Marcus Mariota | 3,412 passing yards, 30 TDs, 4 INTs; 582 rushing yards, 9 TDs | 3,783 passing yards, 38 TDs, 2 INTs; 669 rushing yards, 14 TDs | Yes | 12-1 |
| 2013 | Jameis Winston | Redshirted | 3,820 passing yards, 38 TDs, 10 INTs | Yes | 13-0 |
| 2012 | Johnny Manziel | Redshirted | 3,419 passing yards, 24 TDs, 8 INTs; 1,181 rushing yards, 19 TDs | No | 10-2 |
| 2011 | Robert Griffin III | 3,195 passing yards, 21 TDs, 8 INTs; 591 rushing yards, 8 TDs | 3,998 passing yards, 36 TDs, 6 INTs; 644 rushing yards, 9 TDs | No | 9-3 |
| 2010 | Cam Newton | Junior college | 2,589 passing yards, 28 TDs, 6 INTs; 1,409 rushing yards, 20 TDs | Yes | 13-0 |
| 2009 | Mark Ingram | 702 rushing yards, 12 TDs | 1,542 rushing yards, 15 TDs | Yes | 13-0 |
| 2008 | Sam Bradford | 2,879 passing yards, 34 TDs, 7 INTs | 4,464 passing yards, 48 TDs, 6 INTs | Yes | 12-1 |
| 2007 | Tim Tebow | 357 passing yards, 4 TDs, 1 INT; 430 rushing yards, 7 TDs | 3,132 passing yards, 29 TDs, 6 INTs; 838 rushing yards, 22 TDs | No | 9-3 |
| 2006 | Troy Smith | 1,940 passing yards, 14 TDs, 4 INTs; 545 rushing yards, 11 TDs | 2,507 passing yards, 30 TDs, 5 INTs | Yes | 12-0 |
| 2005 | Reggie Bush | 908 rushing yards, 6 rushing TDs, 43 receptions, 509 receiving yards, 7 receiving TDs | 1,740 rushing yards, 16 rushing TDs, 37 receptions, 478 receiving yards, 2 receiving TDs | Yes | 12-0 |
| 2004 | Matt Leinart | 3,229 passing yards, 35 TDs, 9 INTs | 2,990 passing yards, 28 TDs, 6 INTs | Yes | 12-0 |
| 2003 | Jason White | 181 passing yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs (Injured) | 3,744 passing yards, 40 TDs, 8 INTs | Yes | 12-1 |
| 2002 | Carson Palmer | 2,567 passing yards, 13 TDs, 12 INTs | 3,639 passing yards, 32 TDs, 10 INTs | No | 10-2 |
| 2001 | Eric Crouch | 1,101 passing yards, 11 TDs, 7 INTs; 971 rushing yards, 20 TDs | 1,510 passing yards, 7 TDs, 10 INTs; 1,115 rushing yards, 18 TDs | Yes | 11-1 |
| 2000 | Chris Weinke | 3,103 passing yards, 25 TDs, 14 INTs | 4,167 passing yards, 33 TDs, 11 INTs | Yes | 11-1 |
| 1999 | Ron Dayne | 1,279 rushing yards, 11 TDs | 1,834 rushing yards, 19 TDs | No | 9-2 |
| 1998 | Ricky Williams | 1,893 rushing yards, 25 TDs | 2,124 rushing yards, 27 TDs | No | 8-3 |
To help digest the information above, we have broken down the Heisman Trophy winners since the start of the BCS era into several categories that describe their status in the season before they won the award. Some players were Heisman contenders the year before they won the honor, some were known talents at the collegiate level and some can be categorized as simply starters or backups. Other players sprung onto the scene after redshirting, spending the year prior at a junior college or bouncing back from an injury.
Heisman contenders
- Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma
- Matt Leinart, QB, USC
- Ricky Williams, RB, Texas
- Reggie Bush, RB, USC
Four of the 20 Heisman Trophy winners from 1998-2017 finished in the top 10 in Heisman voting the season before they won the award. Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield, who won the Heisman this season, finished third in 2016 (and fourth in 2015). Former USC running back Reggie Bush finished fourth in the season before he won the award. Former USC quarterback Matt Leinart and former Texas running back Ricky Williams placed sixth and fifth, respectively, in the seasons before each took home the trophy.
Leinart actually threw for more yards and touchdowns in 2003 than 2004, when he won the Heisman. Williams had an impressive junior season, rushing for 1,893 yards and 25 touchdowns, but he was even better as a senior, running for 2,124 yards and 27 touchdowns.
College stars
- Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
- Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor
- Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma
- Chris Weinke, QB, Florida State
- Ron Dayne, RB, Wisconsin
This category is admittedly subjectively defined but the five players listed above didn't finish in the top 10 of Heisman Trophy voting in the season before they won the award but each was much more than a run-of-the-mill starter at his position in the year leading up to his Heisman campaign.
For example in the 2013 regular season and Pac-12 Championship game, former Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota threw for 3,412 yards and 30 touchdowns, and rushed for 582 yards and nine touchdowns. But he got even better the following season, improving his passing yards (3,783 – 10.8% improvement), passing touchdowns (38 – 26.7%), rushing yards (669 – 14.9%) and rushing touchdowns (14 – 35.7%) in Oregon's first 13 games.. Such is the common thread among these players. They were already accomplished and established talents but then elevated their games to earn the Heisman Trophy.
Starters
- Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville
- Derrick Henry, RB, Alabama
- Troy Smith, QB, Ohio State
- Carson Palmer, QB, USC
- Eric Crouch, QB, Nebraska
This category is pretty self-explanatory. These players were starters the season before they won the Heisman but didn't necessarily put up numbers that would blow you away. Lamar Jackson threw for 1,613 yards and had a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 10:8 in the regular season as a freshman. Derrick Henry split carries with T.J. Yeldon in Alabama's backfield in 2014 but Henry was the team's leading rusher.
Backups
- Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
- Tim Tebow, QB, Florida
Mark Ingram and Tim Tebow significantly improved their production to become Heisman Trophy winners. Ingram was clearly Alabama's second fiddle at running back in 2008, running the ball 143 times to Glen Coffee's 233 carries. Coffee finished the season with 1,383 rushing yards and Ingram had 728. Coffee went to the NFL and Ingram exploded in the 2009 season, more than doubling his production on the ground and entering the Heisman Trophy presentation with 1,542 rushing yards as the Crimson Tide's lead back.
Tebow was Florida's second-leading passer and rusher in 2006. He was 22-of-33 passing for 358 yards and five touchdowns with 89 carries for 469 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. Tebow led the Gators through the air and on the ground in 2007, racking up 3,286 passing yards, 895 rushing yards and 55 combined touchdowns. His backup that season? Some guy named Cam Newton, who we'll touch on below.
Redshirted
- Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
- Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M
Since the start of the BCS era, two Heisman Trophy winners redshirted the season before they won the award. Texas A&M's Johnny Manziel and Florida State's Jameis Winston won the Heisman in back-to-back seasons as redshirt freshmen.
Junior college
- Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
Newton spent two seasons at Florida before transferring to Blinn College in Brenham, Tex., where he threw for 2,833 yards, ran for 655 and had 39 total touchdowns in one season with the Buccaneers. Newton then enrolled at Auburn, where he led the Tigers to an undefeated season and a national championship in the 2010 season, when he took home the Heisman Trophy.
Injured
- Jason White, QB, Oklahoma
White likely would've appeared in a different category but an ACL injury ended his season in his second game in 2002. After appearing in seven games and attempting 113 passes in 2001, White threw just 34 times in the 2002 season. However, he bounced back to lead Oklahoma to an appearance in the Sugar Bowl in the 2003 season, when he won the Heisman.
Heisman Trophy outlook
If we can learn anything from the career trajectories of the last two decades of Heisman Trophy winners, here are a few takeaways. Roughly half the time the recipient was a starter in the season prior to winning the award — ranging from a above-average starter to a star. Roughly a third of the time the winner won't be on the Heisman radar, due to one of a variety of reasons, including the player suffered an injury in the season prior, he didn't play at the FBS level the year before due to him taking a redshirt year or spending a year at a junior college, or the player was a backup who saw limited snaps.
Then, every so often a player will accomplish the difficult task of entering a season among the Heisman favorites — after finishing among the top vote-getters the year before — and living up to the hype and expectations by winning the Heisman.
Of course, team success either consciously or subconsciously plays a role among voters in who wins the award. The 20 Heisman Trophy winners since the start of the BCS era through 2017 have played on teams that have averaged 11 wins entering bowl season. In 13 out of the 20 evaluated seasons the Heisman Trophy winner's team has been in contention for the national championship, either qualifying for the BCS National Championship or College Football Playoff, so when drafting a short list of players who could win the Heisman, emphasis should be placed on players whose teams can reach double-digit wins and contend for the playoff.