We know how fun it is to pick a No. 15 seed over a No. 2 seed in your NCAA tournament bracket. Hey, it's March, so maybe it's even tempting to do it more than once. But that made us wonder: How do you know when you've overdone it and made too many upset picks?
Here's how, including a tip for those No. 15 seed vs. No. 2 seed matchups:
1. You pick a No. 16 seed over a No. 1 seed
Look, we know it's tempting. Especially considering it just happened in 2023 when Fairleigh Dickinson beat Purdue. But it's only happened twice in 38 tournaments and both those instances happened in the past five seasons after UMBC beat Virginia in 2018. Will there be another Fairleigh Dickinson or UMBC in the 2024 NCAA tournament field? Maybe, but likely not.
Let's look at the history anyway, though:
UMBC's historic 20-point upset of Virginia was the first time a No. 16 seed had beaten a No. 1 seed since the men's tournament field expanded to 64 teams in 1985. Before the Retrievers pulled off what was once deemed maybe impossible, only 15 games in the 1 vs. 16 matchup had been decided by fewer than 10 points. There hadn't been a game decided by one possession since 1996, before today's college players were alive. The other three No. 16 seeds in 2018 didn't have nearly the same luck, losing by an average of 20.3 points.
In 2019, the four No. 1 seeds won by an average of 22.8 points in the first round and all four won by at least 15 points. In 2021, the No. 1 seeds won their first round matchups by an average of 28 points. And in 2022, the average margin of victory for a No. 1 seed was 25.25. History repeated itself slightly in 2023 when FDU beat Purdue by five points, but the other three No. 16 seeds that year lost by an average of 20.0 points.
So, sure, it'd be great to tell your friends that you predicted the next UMBC or Fairleigh Dickinson. Heck, we wouldn't blame you if you put it as a bullet point on your resume. But we we're warning you.
2. You pick more than 10 double-digit seeds to win in the first round or more than five in the second round
... and more than two to win in the Sweet 16. None of those things have ever happened since the NCAA tournament expanded to 64 teams. On average, about 6.3 double-digit seeds win in the first round, 2.1 win in the second round (one did in 2023 but four did in 2021 and 2022) and 0.52 advance past the Sweet 16 (one did in 2021 and 2022 but none did in 2023).
In 2019, nine double-digit seeds won in the first round and just one advanced to the Sweet 16: No. 12 Oregon. No team seeded worse than a No. 5 seed made the Elite Eight.
In 2016, a record 10 double-digit seeds won in the first round and five double-digit seeds won in the second round in 1999. You're better off picking between four and eight double-digit seeds to win in the first round and two or three to win in the second round.
3. You don't consider at least two Big Ten teams in the Sweet 16
An average of 2.46 teams from the Big Ten have made the Sweet 16 since 2008 — that's 37 total in 15 tournaments.
There was even a stretch for 12 consecutive seasons with at least two schools from the Big Ten in the Sweet 16 until 2021 when No. 1 seed Michigan was the only team from the conference to advance past the second weekend. No. 7 Michigan State was the only Big Ten team in the Sweet 16 in 2023.
4. You don't have at least one ACC team in the Elite Eight
From 2007 to 2019, at least one ACC team has advanced to the Elite Eight in 12 of the 14 seasons. In total, 55 teams from the ACC went to the Elite Eight since 1985 — almost 1.5 per tournament.
Most notably, four ACC teams made the Elite Eight in 2016 and three made it in 2015. Three teams made it in 2022 (Duke, UNC and Miami (FL). Two teams — No. 1 overall seed Duke and reigning national champion Virginia — made it in 2019. Only one team — Miami (Fla.) — made it in 2023, though.
5. The sum of the seeds of your Final Four teams is greater than 20
For the first 20 years of the 64-team tournament format, the number could have been 10, not 20. In 14 of those 20 years, the sum of the seeds of the teams that made the Final Four was 10 or lower, but there have since been more dark-horse teams making deep runs in March.
Since 1985, when the tournament expanded to 64 teams, the average sum of the seeds of the Final Four teams is 12.3 and on just three occasions (2000, 2011 and 2023), the total was greater than 20. It's fine — if not encouraged and if not realistic — to pick a dark-horse team or two to make the Final Four because from 2013 to 2018, at least one team seeded as a No. 7 seed or worse made the Final Four every year. Florida Atlantic broke a three-year drought in 2023 when it advanced to the Final Four as a No. 9 seed.
But don't get carried away. The sum of the Final Four teams in 2022 was 13 when one No. 1 seed (Kansas), two No. 2 seeds (Villanova and Duke) and one No. 8 seed (UNC) made it. The sum was 15 in 2021 and 11 in 2019.
6. You don't have any teams in the Final Four whose primary color is blue or orange
College basketball teams whose schools have a primary color of blue or orange had the two highest winning percentages of any color. Teams whose primary color were blue or orange won around 55 percent of their respective NCAA tournament games.
Two blue teams (Florida Atlantic and UConn) made the Final Four in 2023, while Miami (Fla.) also advanced to the tournament semifinals as an orange team. Four blue teams made it in 2022 (Villanova, Kansas, Duke and UNC), while two blues (Gonzaga and UCLA) faced off in the 2021 Final Four and two orange teams (Virginia and Auburn) played each other in the 2019 semifinals.
BRACKET IQ: Here's how many upsets to pick, according to the data
Blue schools have combined for 24 national championships, the most of any color. Red schools have won seven, while Orange schools have won four.
7. You've picked a No. 15 seed over a No. 2 seed without considering free throws
A common trait, if not the common trait among No. 15 seeds that have upset No. 2 seeds, is . And we're not talking about quality of free throw shooting, but rather quantity. Those upsets have historically come down to the No. 15 seed attempting and, more importantly, making more free throws than the No. 2 seed.
In 2016, a No. 15 seed upset a No. 2 seed was when Middle Tennessee State beat Michigan State. The Blue Raiders went 13 for 21 from the charity stripe, while the Spartans made 10 of- 5 shots from there. In 2021, No. 15 seed Oral Roberts, the No. 1 free throw shooting team in the country at 82.1%, attempted the same number of free throws as No. 2 seed Ohio State in the former's upset of the Buckeyes: 18 attempts. Oral Roberts made 14, while Ohio State made just nine.
This situation wasn't the case when No. 15 St. Peters' beat Kentucky, 85-79, in 2022, as the Wildcats attempted 14 more free throws than the Peacocks. However, St. Peter's hit only three fewer free throws than Kentucky (18 vs. 23).
When Princeton, the No. 15 seed in 2023, beat No. 2 Arizona, the Tigers pulled off a similar but different strategy at the line. Princeton shot just five throw attempts — and made three — but allowed just seven attempts from the line for Arizona — who made just four. The Wildcats averaged 21.2 attempts per game that year, so the lack of free throws played a role in the Tigers' 59-55 win.
krikya18.com author Mitchell Northam contributed to this story.
