Bracketology: NCAA men's basketball tournament projections five days before Selection Sunday

As of Tuesday, March 8, we are only five days away from Selection Sunday and the Madness has already begun. With some automatic qualifiers having already clinched their bids and other conference tournaments just beginning, March Madness correspondent Andy Katz has updated his projections for the 2022 NCAA men's basketball tournament.

Here's how Katz projects the 68-team field to look, through the games played on Monday, March 7.

First, here's the bracket in table form (scroll to the right to view the full bracket).

March Madness bracket predictions

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Let's take a closer look at Katz's bracket.

The top seeds

There's no surprise at the top as Katz gives Gonzaga the top overall seed yet again. 

It's the final three No. 1 seeds where things get exciting.

Over the last month, Katz has had five different teams earning one of the three other No. 1 seeds. In his latest projections, Katz sees Baylor, Arizona and Kansas rounding out the top seed line of the bracket, respectively. Just outside, on the No. 2 seed line, lurk SEC powers Auburn and Kentucky at fifth and sixth overall, respectively.

Arizona is the only team among the five that has earned a No. 1 seed in every one of Katz's bracket projections over the last month. Baylor and Kansas have moved all around the top of the bracket projections, with to a few head-to-head matchups between the Bears and Jayhawks leading to movement. 

With conference tournaments on the horizon, the battle for positioning at the top of the 2022 NCAA men's tournament bracket should be exciting to watch.

BRACKET CHALLENGE: Play the 2022 NCAA March Madness Men's Bracket Challenge Game

Number of bids by conference

What's changed in Katz's bracket predictions over the last week?

Well, it starts with the Big Ten. The conference reigns supreme with nine teams in the projected field as Rutgers joins the tournament picture after being one of the first four teams out a week ago.

Katz projects the Big East, Big 12 and SEC to each have six teams in the tournament. The Big East loses Xavier from the field (more on that below), while the projected teams in the field from the Big 12 and SEC remain consistent.

The ACC also remains consistent with its five projected NCAA tournament teams. North Carolina's win over Duke launched the Tar Heels from the worst-seeded ACC team to the second-highest seeded team from the conference.

Also of note is the Atlantic 10 earning its first at-large appearance in Katz's bracket predictions since the start of January, thanks to VCU earning one of the final spots in the projected tournament field.

PAST BRACKETS: March 1| Post top-16 reveal | One month before selections | 50 days out | New Year's | Opening night | Preseason

Teams on the outside looking in

Here are Katz's first four teams out of his projected bracket.

First four out

Wyoming and Xavier fall from the tournament field in Katz's latest bracket projections after losses to UNLV and St. John's, respectively. Wyoming gets a rematch against UNLV to open the Mountain West conference tournament on March 10. With a solid tournament performance, the Cowboys have the potential to rise back into the projected field. Xavier enters the Big East tournament seeded eighth after losing seven of its last nine games to close the regular season.

Elsewhere, BYU's tournament resume is complete. The Cougars lost to San Francisco — a projected tournament team — in the quarterfinals of the WCC tournament. BYU now sits at 22-10 with four Quadrant 1 wins ahead of Selection Sunday.

Here are the next teams to miss the cut.

Next four out

5. Virginia Tech
6. Florida
7. St. Bonaventure
8. Oklahoma

BUBBLE WATCH: 10 intriguing men's teams on the cusp

Andy Katz's automatic qualifiers

Here are Katz's 32 automatic qualifier predictions, which now include some schools that have officially secured a bid.

BID TRACKER: Tracking all 32 NCAA men's basketball conference tournaments, auto-bids

Andy Katz's field of 68

Here is Katz’s full seed list in order, from one through 68: