This week in DII sports: DII baseball championship predictions for Cary

We have a lot to get in so little space this week, so buckle up and be ready for some hits from the DII baseball and softball diamond and beyond. 

JUMP TO BASEBALL PREDICTIONS | JUMP TO POWER 10 | WHAT WAYNE'S WATCHING

⚾️ 8 for Cary — Predicting the DII baseball championship finals

The bracket is full and now 56 teams embark on the road to Cary, N.C. to play in the 2024 DII baseball championship finals. Let's guess how it may turn out and look on June 1 when finals play begins. 

Atlantic

Team to beat: West Chester. Is any team hotter in the Atlantic or even DII baseball, right now? The Golden Rams have won 11 of their last 12, including a 3-1 series win over East Stroudsburg and a four-game sweep of Millersville to close the regular season.

Team to watch: Seton Hill. I have been higher than most on the Griffins for much of the season, and that is because they have a deep, experienced starting rotation and leaders like Jack Oberdorf who can stun some people in this part of the bracket.

Central

Team to beat: Central Missouri. The Mules have been tied at or overall No. 1 for over a month. They are in the top 5 in nearly every offensive category as one of the most potent offenses we’ve seen recently.

Team to watch: Augustana (SD). For the record, I really like Missouri Southern and easily see this as a MIAA championship rematch. However, the Vikings are rolling, winners of 10 in a row and their first NSIC tournament title since 2019. Jack Hines is a beast, and they are three deep in the starting rotation.   

East

Team to beat: Southern New Hampshire. I’ve said it a hundred times and until they lose, I’ll say it a hundred more. The Penmen own the East Region with three straight trips to Cary and four in the past five tourneys.

Team to watch: Jefferson. This is a fun story. I’ve been covering DII baseball since 2015, and the Rams haven’t been in the DII baseball championship conversation over that decade. Now, the Rams have 30-plus wins for the first time since 1990 and made it to the CACC title game for just the third time since joining the conference.

Midwest

Team to beat: Trevecca Nazarene. Yep, I’m going for it, especially in a Midwest that is wide open this year. There are a lot of good teams here, and Saginaw Valley State is one of the feel-good stories of the DII baseball season. We saw this happen before in 2021, when the Trojans won the G-MAC tourney (defeating Tiffin, just like this year) and making it all the way to Cary. Why not a sequel?

Team to watch: Maryville (MO). All season long I have spoken to Ashland’s experience, but I think right now, talent-wise, the Saints are the best team in the Midwest… at least on paper. This time of year is always tricky, and all that matters is what happens on the field, but Maryville’s momentum — coming off its first GLVC tournament title in program history — is a big boost.

South

Team to beat: Tampa. If there were any questions about how good Tampa is (there weren’t) they were answered in a sweep of Saint Leo a couple of weeks back. Not only does this team have a ridiculous offense with DII hit king EJ Cumbo, but the pitching staff is top 5 in both ERA and WHIP.

Team to watch: Saint Leo. It’s pretty boring here in the South when it comes to searching for an upset. That is because Saint Leo and Tampa have been in the top 10 nationally and in the Power 10 for most of the season. The Lions didn’t close strong, but it also feels like the four Gulf South Conference teams beat each other up, down the stretch. It will make for some interesting baseball.

South Central

Team to beat: Lubbock Christian. I called the Chaps a sleeper very early this season, and I was wrong — it turns out they were wide awake for most of the year. The South Central has long been Angelo State or Colorado Mesa’s to lose, but the Chaps, led by Carson Ogilvie are not the No. 1 seed by accident.

Teams to watch: Angelo State and Colorado Mesa. It’s May, so you have no choice but to keep an eye on these two. Once again, the Mavericks are a run-scoring machine, leading DII with 11.0 runs per game, and Angelo State is the defending national champs and three-time defending South Central champs.

Southeast

Team to beat: North Greenville. Catawba has been sensational all season long, but the Crusaders have consecutive trips to Cary under their belt. There is still some experience from previous runs, as ace Reece Fields and master of the dinger David “The Volcano” Lewis are two of the best in DII.

Team to watch: Everyone and anyone. This isn’t a cop out. I have made it very clear over the past three seasons that the Southeast Region is the toughest in DII baseball. Six of the seven teams here have made at least one appearance in the Power 10 this season, two of the last three national champions are lurking in the midst, and the No. 7 seeded Georgia College is red hot — we’ve seen what happens with red-hot teams in this part of the country before (I'm looking at you Wingate).

West

Team to beat: Point Loma. It has pretty much been Point Loma from Day 1 of the 2024 season. The Sea Lions are coming in scorching hot, winning yet another PacWest title and trouncing Concordia (CA) two times on Friday to win it all, scoring 43 runs in the process. You get this offense hot — with that fielding and pitching behind it — and you have a potential steamroller.

Team to watch: San Francisco State. The Gators are back in the tournament for the first time since 1995. For those keeping track, that means the overwhelming majority of students on their campus weren’t even born yet. This is an awesome story, and while I don’t think they have the pitching to contend in the Wild West, you’d be missing out not watching what this team can pull off.

DII baseball Power 10 rankings

With regional play set to commence on May 16, let's take one last look at the DII baseball Power 10 before the final rankings of the season drop on June 11. 

Remember, the Power 10 is just me, my spreadsheets and a whole mess of notes and what I’m seeing at games. Judging a team by wins and losses is not that easy in college baseball. This is a look at the current landscape, trying to combine the eye test with selection metrics like strength of schedule and in-region records.

The final 2024 DII baseball Power 10 before the tournament begins
(Games and stats through Sunday, May 12)

No. 1 Tampa | Previous: 2. The Spartans head into the tournament looking like a real contender and haven’t been lower than No. 2 all season long. They had one of the best RPIs in DII and were 21-5 against teams with a winning record.

No. 2 Central Missouri | Previous: 1. So much offense. So many metrics. This has been one of the best teams in DII from start to finish, and even a small blip in the MIAA tournament doesn’t change that.

No. 3 Missouri Southern | Previous: 8. The Lions were that small blip mentioned above and split the season series with the Mules. They have done just about all they need to do to warrant such a lofty ranking.

No. 4 Point Loma | Previous: 5. The Sea Lions added another 40-win season to their resume and outside of some tricky series with Westmont, they didn’t struggle too much at any point this season.

No. 5 Lubbock Christian | Previous: 7. Is there finally a changing of the guard in the South Central? One thing is for certain, it won’t be pitching that wins it, but big bats coming through, which the Chaps have plenty of in the lineup.

No. 6 North Greenville | Previous: 3. Yes, the Crusaders saw an earlier than expected exit from their conference tournament, but don’t be fooled. This team can beat anyone.

No. 7 West Chester | Previous: The next 15. No time like the present to make your 2024 Power 10 debut, right? The Golden Rams are thriving and have that feel of the programs that won in both 2012 and 2017.

No. 8 Catawba | Previous: 9. Another team with bad luck in its conference tournament, the Indians still took the top seed in the tough Southeast, so that tells you all you need to know.

No. 9 Saint Leo | Previous: 4. Truth be told, I did not like how Saint Leo ended its regular season against two tournament heavyweights in Tampa and Rollins. But that should not diminish how strong this team was all year.

No. 10 Augustana (SD) | Previous: The next 15. I have been higher on the Vikings than most all season, and the way they finished sees their rollercoaster adventure in and out of the Power 10 finish right where they belong.  

The next 15

⚾️ Angelo State, Ashland, Central Oklahoma, Charleston (WV), Colorado Mesa, East Stroudsburg, Lee, Maryville (MO), Millersville, Mount Olive, Seton Hill, UNC Pembroke, Westmont, West Texas A&M, Young Harris

👀 What Wayne's Watching 👀

DII softball championship super regional play begins this week

Last week, newsletter subscribers saw . Just like the DII baseball predictions above, I picked a team to beat and team to watch. As it turns out, we have quite an interesting bracket this year. Four of the teams to beat (Wilmington (DE), UIndy, North Georgia, and Western Washington) moved on, and two of my teams to watch (Charleston (WV) and UT Tyler) showed why they could make it to Florida for the finals.  

That said, we are heading to the super regionals already down four No. 1 seeds. UIndy looks like the team to beat, having yet to allow a run in the tournament. The Greyhounds also showed they can win in dramatic fashion behind an Emily O’Conner extra-inning walk-off home run to advance to the supers. It was her 18th home run of the season, a new UIndy record.  

The DII women’s lacrosse championship field is set

The DII women’s lacrosse championship selection show was aired on Sunday, May 12. The ball gets rolling for the tournament on Thursday, May 16 in all four regions (). All but two of last year’s 16 teams are back in the tournament. In fact, not only are all four teams the same in the Atlantic Region — they are the same seedings.

Defending national champion Pace is back in the mix, earning the No. 1 spot in the East. The Setters haven’t lost in more than a calendar year, last losing to Le Moyne by a mere one goal in the NE10 championship game last season.

There’s a nice little first-round rematch between No. 1 Maryville (MO) and No. 4 UIndy. The Saints — led by DII women’s lacrosse all-time goal scorer Sydney Tiemann — were 17-1 this year, winning the GLVC regular season with an undefeated run through the conference. That lone loss came on April 28 to UIndy in the GLVC tournament title game. Maryville, which defeated the Greyhounds earlier in April, has beaten each of the three teams in its region thus far.

You can watch the start of the DII women’s lacrosse championship, and the men's semifinals .

What else to watch…

The DII baseball championship regional tournaments begin this week.

The DII men’s and women’s golf regionals wrapped up over the weekend and both sports go on a mini hiatus until they tee off in Florida at the 2024 DII festival. Gannon won the men’s Atlantic/East Region, Central Oklahoma won the men’s Central/Midwest Region, North Georgia won the men’s South/Southeast Region (the first in program history) and Western New Mexico won the men’s South Central/West Region. On the women’s side, Henderson State won the Central, Findlay won the East by a tiebreaker, Anderson (SC) won its first-ever South Region and West Texas A&M won the West. You can get caught up on regional play and find what you need to know about the finals for the  and .

There was still some preliminary round action in the DII men's tennis championship when we went to press, so be sure to follow the . You can see who's moving on to Florida for the DII festival in . 

On the Radar

🏃🏽‍ DII outdoor track and field selections | May 14

🚣 DII rowing selections | May 21

🏃🏻‍♀️ DII outdoor track and field championships | May 23-25

🏆 The 2024 DII Championships Festival (Spring), May 19-25): This includes men’s and women’s tennis, men’s and women’s golf, women’s lacrosse and softball. .

🥍 DII men’s lacrosse championship | May 26.

🚣 National rowing championships | May 31-June 2

🏟 DII baseball championship | June 1-8

⚾️ 2024 MLB Draft | July 14

Did I miss someone or something? It sure is possible. Don’t forget to drop me a line at Wayne.Cavadi@WBD.com and get your stars of the week in by every Monday.