8 takeaways from the second FCS committee rankings

The Division I Football Championship Committee revealed its second in-season top-10 rankings, and there was some interesting movement from 1 to 10. Here are eight takeaways from the committee rankings.

1. Montana State over Montana shows the importance of playing DI opponents

Montana State ranked above Montana in the first committee rankings, and the order remained the same as the Bobcats came in at No. 2 to the Grizzlies at No. 3 in the second committee rankings.

While the Brawl of the Wild will ultimately decide which team is ranked higher at the end of the season, we can get a good gauge of what the committee is valuing in the difference in the ranking of the two teams.

Even though Montana State has two losses — one FBS and one FCS — they still rank in front of the undefeated Grizzlies. What stands out between the two are the number of FCS wins. Montana State has seven FCS wins while Montana has just eight FCS wins because the Grizzlies played a non-DI opponent, Central Washington.

That Central Washington game lessens Montana's strength of schedule, which likely places the undefeated Grizzlies behind their in-state rival, even though Montana has a win over a talented North Dakota squad.

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2. The same is true for undefeated Tennessee Tech's ranking No. 7

If you thought Montana's strength of schedule was poor, you'd might not be shocked to find Tennessee Tech's SOS is sitting outside of the top 50. 

The Golden Eagles are undefeated at 9-0, but they played an NAIA school (Cumberland) to open the season. Tennessee Tech has just one win over a team with a winning record — 5-4 Gardner-Webb. All of that data is likely why the committee ranked Tennessee Tech at No. 7, even with a 31.9 point margin of victory this year.

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3. Lehigh could end up with home field through the playoffs

Lehigh is 9-0, sitting at No. 4 in the committee's second rankings. The Mountain Hawks have a great chance to finish undefeated, so there's potential for a top-two seed.

Assuming North Dakota State grabs the No. 1 seed, the only teams in front of Lehigh are Montana State and Montana. Montana State plays two of the committee's top-10 teams in back-to-back weeks to close the season. Montana has to beat Montana State in the last game.

If Montana State loses to UC Davis, would that drop a two-FCS-loss Bobcat team below an undefeated Lehigh?

We've already discussed how the committee may view Montana's strength of schedule, so if Montana State rebounds from a loss to win the Brawl of the Wild over the Grizzlies, would that drop Montana below the Mountain Hawks, too?

That's not factoring in any potential unranked upsets in what's always a wild November in the FCS. If Lehigh handles its business, it's reasonable to think they could get homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.

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4. Tarleton State might now have a ceiling

Tarleton State suffered its first loss to Abilene Christian last week, right before the most recent committee rankings. That loss dropped the Texans from No. 3 in the initial rankings to No. 5.

If the Texans win out, will they be able to move in front of any of Montana State, Montana or Lehigh?

Tarleton State closes the season with what could be a playoff-quality Austin Peay team, which could help boost their resume. However, you'd be hard pressed find someone who thinks a win over Austin Peay is better than a win in the Brawl of the Wild.

But what about Lehigh? Tarleton could jump in front of the Mountain Hawks, right? Well, that depends on how Lafayette does, too. The Leopards are 6-3 with two FCS losses, so if they win out ahead of "The Rivalry" against Lehigh, Lehigh could potentially close with a ranked win.

It'll be tough for Tarleton State to move past the No. 4 spot.

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5. How long is South Dakota State’s leash after back-to-back losses?

South Dakota State lost back-to-back games to North Dakota State and a backup-quarterback led Indiana State team. The committee still ranked the Jackrabbits No. 6. 

A loss to North Dakota State wasn't expected to drop South Dakota State from the top 10, but a loss to the Sycamores? That one is interesting. While South Dakota State was on its backup — and eventually third-string —quarterback, so was Indiana State.

That begs the question of how many more losses can South Dakota State afford before it loses its shine in front of the committee?

The Jackrabbits have a great win over Montana State, the committee's No. 2 team. I think that can keep them in the postseason picture even with another loss. But if the Jackrabbits lose two or more games, things get a lot more interesting.

6. Monmouth is at the mercy of everyone else when it comes to a ranking

Monmouth is 8-1, but ranks behind two two-loss teams and a one-loss team. The Hawks also fell behind Tennessee Tech in the latest committee rankings. Look ahead at Monmouth's schedule and you'll find just one team with a record above .500.

Even with a win over Villanova, a potential playoff team, Monmouth might not have an opportunity to move in front of any teams in the rankings. Meanwhile, teams ranked behind Monmouth will play ranked opponents, leaving the Hawks at the mercy of the nation's best teams.

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7. If Harvard wins out, it’s likely getting a bye

So much for the Ivy League needing to play the same amount of games as other FCS teams to have a good seed in the playoffs. That's what Harvard's No. 9 ranking in the second committee ranking says.

At No. 9, Harvard is just one rank away from a first round bye in the 2025 FCS playoffs. Of the eight teams ranked ahead of the Crimson, four play ranked opponents. 

All it takes is a loss or two and Harvard will be in prime position for a top-eight spot as long as it keeps winning.

PAST RANKINGS: See how the Committee ranked the teams in their first rankings three weeks ago

8. What’s the gap between UC Davis and everyone else?

With only one new team in the committee's rankings, we have no idea how the committee thinks of most of the other teams in the FCS. UC Davis dropped to No. 10 after losing to Idaho State, but how big of a lead do the Aggies have on the rest of the FCS?

Rhode Island, Mercer and Villanova are a trio of teams worth monitoring as they join UC Davis as one-FCS-loss teams. One can assume North Dakota, the only team to drop from the committee rankings, is still hovering around the top 10. Elsewhere in the MVFC, Southern Illinois and Illinois State have potential resume-boosting opportunities for wins down the stretch.

We don't know how the committee views the teams not in the top 10. UC Davis could have a big lead on the rest of the FCS, or the margin could be razor-thin.