2024 FCS playoff bracket: Predictions, picks for every FCS playoff game and round

The 2024 FCS playoffs are here! The full 24-team field was revealed on Sunday, Nov. 24. Montana State took the top seed, followed by North Dakota State and South Dakota State, respectively, at Nos. 2 and 3.

With the complete field released and the first round starting on Saturday, Nov. 30, there's no better time to predict every game for the 2024 tournament.

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Here are my 2024 FCS championship predictions, game by game.

2024 FCS Playoff predictions

First round | Nov. 30

12 p.m. | No. 12 Illinois State at Southeast Missouri State

Winner: Southeast Missouri State

I like Southeast Missouri State here. The Redhawks are playing at home thanks to a scheduling mishap from Illinois State. In addition to the homefield advantage being in its favor, SEMO also has an advantage in the passing game. Quarterback Paxton DeLaurent is one of the best quarterbacks in the FCS and faces an Illinois State defense in the bottom half of the MVFC allowing almost 230 yards per game. I think this game will be the DeLaurent show.

12 p.m. | Central Connecticut State at No. 10 Rhode Island

Winner: Rhode Island

Rhode Island is the better team here. In his career, URI running back Malik Grant has rushed for 396 yards and six touchdowns against Central Connecticut State, averaging 5.5 yards per carry. Expect the Rams to lean on Grant en route to a win.

1 p.m. | UT Martin at No. 16 New Hampshire 

Winner: UT Martin

This game comes down to running the ball. New Hampshire has the worst rushing offense in the CAA. UT Martin has the fifth-best rushing defense in the FCS. UT Martin will make New Hampshire one-dimensional and control the game in a win.

2 p.m. | Lehigh at No. 9 Richmond

Winner: Richmond

Richmond will face its future conference foe when Lehigh visits. The Spiders have a very good defense and I think they will shut down Lehigh's offense.

BRACKET: See the official 2024 FCS playoff bracket

2 p.m. | Eastern Kentucky at No. 11 Villanova 

Winner: Villanova

Villanova quarterback Connor Watkins is a veteran with plenty of experience, including a playoff win last year. While he hasn't been as good as last year, he has taken care of the football, only throwing three interceptions this year. Meanwhile, Eastern Kentucky quarterback Matt Morrissey has thrown six interceptions in the last half of the season, including a three-interception game in a loss to Abilene Christian.

In a game where I think every possession will count, I think ball security will be the difference maker here and Villanova wins.

3 p.m. | Northern Arizona at No. 15 Abilene Christian

Winner: Northern Arizona

In Abilene Christian's loss to Stephen F. Austin, Maverick McIvor missed the second half. If McIvor doesn't play, I think the Wildcats will lose. However, even if McIvor does play I still predict they'll lose.

I think the dual-threat ability of Northern Arizona quarterback Ty Pennington will cause ACU fits. In Abilene Christian's loss to North Alabama, quarterback TJ Smith had his way with six total touchdowns. I think Pennington can do the same and pull off the upset.

3 p.m. | Drake at No. 13 Tarleton State

Winner: Tarleton State

South Dakota beat Drake, 42-3. Eastern Kentucky beat Tarleton State, 17-13. I think Tarleton State is closer to the level of South Dakota than Drake is to the level of Eastern Kentucky. The Texans will win their first FCS playoff game.

10:15 p.m. | Tennessee State at No. 14 Montana | ESPN2

Winner: Montana

A night game in Montana might be the toughest place to play in the FCS. I think Montana beats Tennessee State in front of a huge crowd.

EVERYTHING HBCU FOOTBALL: Schedule, scores, rankings and updates for the 2024 season

Second round | Dec. 7 

2 p.m. | No. 11 Villanova at No. 6 UIW

Winner: Villanova

Villanova has beaten teams like Stony Brook, New Hampshire and Delaware. UIW has beaten Northern Arizona and Southeastern Louisiana. I think Villanova has defeated better teams throughout the year and finding ways to win those games will pay off in what should be a competitive playoff battle.

2 p.m. | No. 10 Rhode Island at No. 7 Mercer

Winner: Mercer

Defense wins championships. While this game might not be a championship game and only a second-round matchup, I think Mercer's opportunistic defense will carry the Bears to a win.

2 p.m. | No. 14 Montana at No. 3 South Dakota State

Winner: South Dakota State

It's a championship rematch from last year. This is the week where Montana's quarterback management hurts the Griz, as South Dakota State's defense is far too talented for inconsistency to prevail. I expect the Jackrabbits to win this one by multiple scores.

3 p.m. | UT Martin at No. 1 Montana State

Winner: Montana State

Montana State has dominated ranked opponents in all but one quarter this season. That dominance continues against UT Martin.

AQ: Every automatic qualifying bid for the 2024 FCS playoffs

3 p.m. | Northern Arizona at No. 2 North Dakota State

Winner: North Dakota State

North Dakota State is far better than the good teams NAU lost to get into the playoffs (UIW, Montana and Idaho). This one could be over by halftime.

3 p.m. | No. 13 Tarleton State at No. 4 South Dakota

Winner: South Dakota

South Dakota appears to be peaking at the right time after knocking off North Dakota State. I think a well-rested Coyote squad will carry momentum into a second-round win.

4 p.m. | Southeast Missouri State at No. 5 UC Davis

Winner: UC Davis

The combination of running back Lan Larison and quarterback Miles Hastings will be too much for a Southeast Missouri State defense that has allowed an average of 361 yards per game in two losses this season.

9 p.m. | No. 9 Richmond at No. 8 Idaho

Winner: Idaho

Idaho has overcome injuries to quarterbacks and has won three ranked games this season. Meanwhile, Richmond has only beaten one team with more than seven wins and only zero playoff teams. Idaho's resilience throughout the season in a battle-tested schedule gives me confidence that the Vandals have what it takes to win this 8-9 matchup.

SEEDS: The importance of a top seed in the FCS playoffs, explained

Quarterfinals | Dec. 13 and 14

Idaho at Montana State

Winner: Montana State

Montana State beat Idaho 38-7 in the regular season. While it's hard to beat any team twice in football, the margin of defeat is too much for me to think the Vandals can pull off the upset here.

UC Davis at South Dakota

Winner: South Dakota

When UC Davis lost to Montana State, quarterback Miles Hastings was sacked six times. UC Davis has allowed 24 sacks on the year while only making 13 sacks. Meanwhile, South Dakota has allowed the eighth-fewest sacks in the FCS while sacking the quarterback 27 times in the year.

I think these are two very good teams, but when one team can get after the quarterback and make plays in the backfield and the other can't, that can be the difference in the game. I think Miles Hastings will be under constant duress in a South Dakota win.

Villanova at South Dakota State

Winner: South Dakota State

South Dakota State has the better player at every position group except maybe — and that's a stretch — running back. The Jackrabbits should handle business against Villanova.

Mercer at North Dakota State

Winner: North Dakota State

Mercer's defense is good, but so is North Dakota State's. I think North Dakota State's defense can force turnovers from Mercer, but with Cam Miller as the quarterback, the Bison should win the turnover battle and the game.

HISTORY: Schools with the most FCS titles | 9 winningest FCS programs all time | Championship history

Semifinals | Dec. 21

South Dakota at Montana State

Winner: Montana State

South Dakota has had to come from behind in four of its last five games to close the regular season. Montana State has only trailed in a game vs. an FCS opponent for 2:47 all season. Montana State doesn't start slow, South Dakota does. A slow start against Montana State means the run game can get going and that's bad news for any opponent. Montana State comes out fast and controls the semifinal game on its way back to Frisco.

South Dakota State at North Dakota State

Winner: South Dakota State

The last time South Dakota State and North Dakota State met, the game was decided by a fourth-quarter touchdown drive with less than two minutes to play. South Dakota State only had one touchdown in the loss. 

It's hard to beat any team twice, especially a rival. After a game that was so close, I think a revenge-seeking South Dakota State team can pull off a win in the second go-around with the added motivation. 

🏆: FCS Championship Game info

FCS championship game | Jan. 6

South Dakota State vs. Montana State

Winner: South Dakota State

To beat Montana State, you have to stop the run. I think South Dakota State, home of the No. 6 rush defense, No. 3 third-down defense, and the No. 1 red zone touchdown defense can do just that. 

It'll start in the secondary, where I like cornerbacks Dalys Beanum and Colby Humphrey, plus safety Tucker Large. I think that the trio can win their matchups against Montana State wide receivers, allowing an extra defender to help in the run game. From there, I look to veteran linebackers Adam Bock and Graham Spalding. The duo is technically sound when it comes to filling gaps while also being sure tacklers. 

I think South Dakota State can slow down the Montana State offense, but I'm not sure Montana State can do the same. While Mark Gronowski hasn't put up the numbers of his Walter Payton Award-winning 2023-24 season, the offense has still put up 38 or more points in eight games. Gronowski is 2-0 in championship games that he finishes, always playing better when the lights are brightest. I think he leads the Jackrabbits to a three-peat.