Predicting every at-large team to the 2024 FCS playoffs

We're hours away from the 2024 FCS football playoff selection show. Ten automatic qualifying bids are in, but 14 at-large spots remain. Here's who I think will make the field.

Keep in mind, this is my opinion on the teams that will make it into the bracket, not the FCS football championship committee's, and I have not yet seen the bracket.

That said, let's get into the at-large picks.

Locks

Idaho

Few teams can match Idaho's resume when it comes to wins. An FBS win, a win over conference champion Abilene Christian and a win over bubble team Northern Arizona offset any FCS losses from the Vandals.

Illinois State

Illinois State only has two FCS losses, losing to North Dakota State and Missouri State. The Redbirds are the fourth-best team in the MVFC and are getting in.

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Montana

Montana lost to Montana State for its fourth FCS loss, but it has wins over bubble teams Western Carolina and Northern Arizona. The Grizzlies are in and should contend for a seed in the first round.

New Hampshire

New Hampshire is 8-4 with FCS losses to Harvard (the Ivy co-champs), Rhode Island (the CAA co-champs) and Villanova (a playoff team). There isn't a bad loss on New Hampshire's resume and a win over fellow bubble team Stony Brook boosts the resume and gets New Hampshire in.

North Dakota State

North Dakota State was the No. 1 team in the FCS entering the final weekend. The Bison are in.

Rhode Island

Rhode Island is the co-CAA champion with its only FCS loss coming to FCS-transitioning Delaware. The Rams are in.

South Dakota

South Dakota beat the No. 1 team in the FCS to close the season. The Coyotes are in.

Tarleton State

Tarleton State only has two FCS losses and a notable win over Southern Utah. The Texans are going to get in with a 9-3 record.

UC Davis

UC Davis is getting into the playoffs. The Aggies beat Idaho and Montana while having a nonconference win over Southern Utah, a team now in the playoff picture ages well. With only one or two FCS losses, there's no way the committee leaves UC Davis out.

Villanova

Villanova won the Battle of the Blue over Delaware and has additional conference wins over Stony Brook and New Hampshire, two teams on the bubble. Villanova's wins and a 9-3 record get the Wildcats into the postseason.

How much room is on the bubble

With 10 teams as locks, the FCS bubble has room for just four teams.

Last four in

Eastern Kentucky

Eastern Kentucky should be safe from the bubble with an 8-4 record and only two FCS losses. The Colonels have then-ranked wins over Tarleton State and Central Arkansas, although only the victory over Tarleton State probably holds weight here. 

Normally, a team with just two FCS losses and a quality win would be a shoo-in, but the only thing keeping Eastern Kentucky on the bubble in my eyes is its loss to Southern Utah — another team on the bubble. However, I think EKU gets the nod over Southern Utah because EKU's two FCS losses are better than SUU's four FCS losses.

Tennessee Tech 

Tennessee Tech gets in as the second team from the Big South-OVC because of its head-to-head wins over Tennessee State and UT Martin. 

At 7-5 with just three FCS losses, the Golden Eagles have a comparable resume to Chattanooga out of the SoCon, but I think the committee will look at Samford — a common opponent between both schools. Tennessee Tech's win over the Bulldogs will be compared with Chattanooga's 23-point loss and end any debate.

UT Martin 

UT Martin is my second-to-last team in the playoffs. UT Martin is 8-4 with three FCS losses to good teams in Southeast Missouri State (in double-overtime), Missouri State and Tennessee Tech. It also has a quality win over Tennessee State, which should get the Skyhawks in over the  Tigers if it comes down to it.

Tennessee State 

My last team into the playoffs is Tennessee State. The Tigers are 9-3 with nine FCS wins and three FCS losses. Tennessee State's strength of schedule isn't the best, but nine DI wins are impressive nonetheless. That's especially true with TSU's season-ending win over Southeast Missouri State. That win separates the Tigers from the rest of the bubble and should get them into the 24-team field.

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First teams out

Duquesne

Duquesne is the first team out of the FCS playoffs. The Dukes were ranked and just one win away from a conference championship just one week ago. Duquesne also only has one FCS loss with an 8-3 record. So why is Duquesne out? 

Duquesne has a strength of schedule in the bottom half of the FCS and its best win came against a 4-8 Youngstown State team. The Dukes also only have seven FCS wins since they played a non-DI opponent. Its lack of a notable win and seven FCS wins give it a worse resume in comparison to Tennessee State so the Dukes are out.

Stony Brook

Stony Brook lost its last two games and can't blame anyone but itself for missing the playoffs. A head-to-head loss to New Hampshire makes the Seawolves the fifth-best CAA team in the playoff picture and there aren't enough spots for five CAA teams this year. Even with an 8-4 record with three FCS losses, Stony Brook's best win is against William & Mary and that won't be enough to overcome a messy end to the season.

Chattanooga 

I think Chattanooga has the best resume of the 7-5 trio of SoCon teams.  I think Chattanooga is the second-best team because it only has three FCS losses to Western Carolina and ETSU's four losses, but it can be debated. The fact that the resumes are so close is part of the reason I think the Mocs will be one of the first teams out.

Moreover, a 23-point loss to Samford is the worst loss of any of the final eight teams in contention for a playoff spot. Chattanooga only has one notable win over ETSU which doesn't compare to the wins on the resume for the last four teams in from the bubble.

Southern Utah 

I think Southern Utah will be the fourth team of the first four teams out. The Thunderbirds are 7-5 with four FCS losses, of which I think the loss to a five-win Idaho State team keeps it out. 

The reason I think Southern Utah will be one of the four bubble teams that are first out is because of its FBS win over UTEP and FCS win over Eastern Kentucky. Also, Central Arkansas was ranked when SUU beat it. Those wins get Southern Utah in contention, but the losses are what holds the Thunderbirds out.

Bubble but no wins

This trio of bubble teams are out of the playoffs because they don't have a quality win.

Southeastern Louisiana 

At 7-5, Southeastern Louisiana could be the one team that surprises many and gets into the playoff. The Lions only have three FCS losses to South Dakota State, Tarleton State and UIW, and with two FBS opponents, they'll have a good strength of schedule.

However, with the 2024 bubble being one of the closest in recent memory, Southeastern Louisiana needs more. The Lions only have two wins over teams with records above .500. Without a quality win, its resume is missing a key factor to get it in.

North Carolina Central

North Carolina Central is out of the playoffs because its best win is over Alabama State and its strength of schedule is in the bottom half of the FCS. The Eagles also played a non-DI opponent, leaving them with seven FCS wins instead of the eight wins in the W column. Even with only two FCS losses, I think when the committee sees the blowout loss at home to Elon, it'll confirm the decision to keep it out of the playoffs.

Northern Arizona 

Northern Arizona is 8-4 with three FCS losses and a non-DI win. The Lumberjacks haven't beaten a team with a winning record, so even seven FCS wins can't get them into the postseason.

Bubble but out

Western Carolina

Western Carolina is 7-5 with four FCS losses, one of which came at home to a 3-9 Campbell team. That loss offsets a good win over Chattanooga, and a loss to ETSU keeps things close within its own conference's playoff picture. The four FCS losses keep WCU out.

ETSU 

ETSU is 7-5 with four FCS losses and a non-DI win. That's just six DI wins when every other bubble team has seven. The Buccaneers are out.