Welcome to the annual absurdly early DII football preseason predictions. There are still freshmen figuring out roles, players on the move and new coaches settling in, so it seems like there is no way to predict how things will look in August.
But that doesn't mean I'm not going to try.
The "way-too-early" preseason Power 10 rankings come out in early January and are mostly an exercise in fun. I haven't emailed coaches; I don't do in-depth research. I look at rosters and see who is expected to be back, look at programs that have systems that withstand the test of time and make educated guesses as to where teams will finish.
🏉 DII FOOTBALL CENTRAL:
- Harding rushes to history in championship game victory 🏃🏽♂️
- The final Power 10 rankings of 2023 📊
- Harlon Hill winners and history 🥇
- View the 2023 bracket 🏆
- How the tourney works ❓
- Programs with the most titles 🏉
Believe it or not, it has turned out pretty well in the past. Last year, seven of the way-too-early top-10 reached the playoffs and finished in the national top 25. The 2022 way-too-early predictions fared even better, with eight teams reaching the playoffs — including all four national semifinalists — and finishing in the national top 25.
So, while these are mainly fun since so much change can (and will) still occur before Week 1, there has been some success and reality to them. Who cracks the top 10 for 2024?
The 2024 DII football way-too-early Power 10 rankings
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No. 1 Harding. Since I've started covering DII football in 2015, there are two things we know about Harding. The Bisons are going to rush for a lot of yards and the defense is going to make sure its opponents don't score. This team is annually one of the top-scoring offenses and defenses, so head coach Paul Simmons obviously does a great job of finding the right pieces to replace outgoing stars. Should quarterback Cole Keylon and running backs Blake Delacruz (who set the championship game record with 212 yards rushing) and Braden Jay return, this team is in prime shape for a repeat run. The three ran for 3,260 of Harding's record 6,161 yards and combined for 48 rushing touchdowns.
No. 2 Pittsburg State. While I think there is a good chance we see Devon Garrison on an NFL field next season, quarterback Chad Dodson Jr. should have plenty to work with next year if everyone returns that is expected to. The real strength may be on the defensive side if the Gorillas can get all the pieces back — four of the Gorillas' five leading tacklers were underclassmen. That includes Jack Barkley, who had 95 tackles — the top mark in the MIAA for the conference’s best defense — to go along with five sacks and 11 tackles for a loss. The Gorillas should be back in the MIAA mix once again in 2024.
No. 3 Lenoir-Rhyne. The Bears had an explosive offense that powered them to their first national semifinals since 2013. Dwayne McGee was one of the best running backs in DII football and could very well be back for his senior season. Both quarterbacks Sean White and Jalen Ferguson gained valuable experience, combining for more than 3,000 yards passing and 35 touchdowns, while their top target at wide receiver, DeAree Rogers, was a mere freshman. The key will be if defensive superstars Jon Ross Maye and Andre Jefferson (who I'd have to think has plenty of eyes on him at the pro level) return, but even so, there are a lot of returning pieces in place to compete in a tricky SAC.
UPDATE (Feb. 2024): It was brought to my attention that Central Missouri was not in the way-too-early preseason Power 10. This may seem like a glaring omission; however, with the return of Zach Zebrowski, I actually have them tied at No. 3 and overlooked that the Mules were omitted in this final draft. They should be considered a top-5 program at any point in the preseason, whether it is January or August.
No. 4 Ferris State. Who's coming back for Ferris State? Does it matter? The Bulldogs are a DII football powerhouse — they took Montana the distance, the same Montana that played for the FCS national championship — and seem to reload every year. Tony Annese is arguably the best at scheming to his players' talents and not just finding "system players," so there's little reason to think he won't continue this coming season.
No. 5 Valdosta State. The Blazers had a potent offense this season led by Harlon Hill finalist quarterback Sammy Edwards. He was one of many underclassmen that should return as this offense looks to take a huge step forward. A trio of young running backs that combined for 23 touchdowns should also all return to Title Town, but the defensive side will have a few question marks after losing Jacob Harris and Nick Jackson to graduation. Redshirt freshman Tyler Morehead broke out and had four sacks and an interception, so there are definitely big pieces to build around.
No. 6 Minnesota State: If Shen Butler-Lawson is back in Mankato, the Mavericks should be just fine. Quarterback Hayden Ekern, who is listed as a junior, had a wide receiver corps full of young talent, so if he is back for more, this offense should be potent. Khal West — who had a huge season with five interceptions and five pass breakups — and Cliff Harris Award nominee Maven Kretche could also be back to anchor what should be a solid defense. The Mavericks have the potential to return a ton of experience and claim the NSIC crown once again.
No. 7 Central Washington. Tanner Volk is listed as a junior, and for those that didn’t pay attention to West Coast football, Tanner Volk is really good. Volk was the first junior to win the Cliff Harris Award, coming off a 13-interception season. But it isn’t just Volk. If the Wildcats can keep the core of last year’s team together, they are in good shape because it was a young nucleus. Quarterback Kennedy McGill played huge on the memorable playoff run, sophomore running back Tyler Flanagan had a 1,000-yard season and top target Darius Morrison is a redshirt junior. There could be something brewing in Central Washington.
No. 8 Kutztown. There will be question marks in the backfield, but quarterback Judd Novak was pretty much awesome as a redshirt freshman, especially down the stretch in the Golden Bears' historic run to the national semifinals. He’ll have a few of his young receivers back as well to continue their growth individually and as a unit. Now, the Golden Bears’ main strength was their defense, and there will be a lot lost there, but linebacker Brandon Hile is expected to be back and should rally a new corps as the leader in the middle.
No. 9 Colorado School of Mines: I’m keeping the Orediggers in the top 10 despite a tremendous amount of likely turnover. Here’s why: The Orediggers are good. Over the past eight seasons, Colorado School of Mines has made the DII football championship seven times. The one year the Orediggers missed out, they were still a 7-4 team. Bottom line is John Matocha wasn’t there for eight years. This team always has a wide receiver in the top-10 conversation, a running back that plods his way to what feels like 20 touchdowns every year, and, yes, very good quarterbacks that fit the system perfectly. I don’t know exactly what’s in store for 2024, but it will probably involve a lot of points.
No. 10 Slippery Rock. The Rock struggled to get past Kutztown this past season, but otherwise had a typical Slippery Rock season. They were in contention for the PSAC title and made a run in the playoffs. There are several key players that should be back, mainly PSAC West offensive player of the year and Harlon Hill Trophy finalist Brayden Long. Running back Chris D'Or is coming off a strong junior season, and if Josh Stokes, Cottrell Hatchett and Eddie Faulkner IV are back on defense, The Rock have plenty in place for another big year.
Big-time question marks
- Bemidji State. The Brandon Alt era is over, and it was a good one with three straight trips (and first round wins) to the DII football championship. What’s next?
- Delta State. Patrick Shegog and a lot of that defense are now gone. Can the Statesmen stay competitive just two years removed from a 5-6 season pre-Shegog?
- Grand Valley State. I have no idea what to expect in Allendale, Michigan. This team was so heavy in experience and will lose two of its leaders: quarterback Cade Peterson on offense and linebacker Abe Swanson on defense. When there is a little more clarity, this could be in the top three.
- West Florida. A lot of pieces have moved on, but now head coach Kaleb Nobles can put his own stamp on this team. The Argos are always competitive and should be this year... I think.
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