In 1999, 52 years after the first NCAA baseball tournament, a field that started in 1947 with just eight teams and two rounds expanded to 64 teams. And with that expansion came the addition of labeling the eight national seeds.
In the 2023 season, the 24th of the modern NCAA baseball tournament, those eight seeds were:
- Wake Forest
- Florida
- Arkansas
- Clemson
- LSU
- Vanderbilt
- Virginia
- Stanford
Five of those teams — Wake Forest, Florida, LSU, Virginia and Stanford — reached Omaha. The top-seeded Demon Deacons were eliminated in the semifinals by eventual champion LSU, who beat SEC rival Florida in the finals. Virginia and Stanford each finished winless at the MCWS.
The rest of the top eight seeds were eliminated from the tournament in front of their home fans, failing to even make a Super Regional as they fell at the first stage of the tournament.
Click or tap here to view the 2023 College World Series Bracket
While a 5-seed took home the crown in 2023, national seeds are far from a guarantee for success in the tournament. Wake Forest continued a now 24-year stretch in which the top overall seed has failed to win the championship. In 2022, No. 1 Tennessee failed to even reach Omaha.
But exactly how common is it for national seeds to lose before Omaha? And, if they do make it to the Men's College World Series, how do they fare?
To answer that, we looked back at the performance of each national seed for the past 24 years (since they were introduced in 1999):
| Lost in regionals | Lost in super regionals | Lost in MCWS 1st round | Lost in MCWS 2nd round | Lost in MCWS semis | Lost in MCWS finals | Won CWS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total (192) | 44 (22.9%) | 42 (21.9%) | 25 (13.0%) | 23 (12.0%) | 28 (14.6%) | 18 (9.4%) | 12 (6.25%) |
| 1 seeds | 3 (12.5%) | 7 (29.2%) | 3 (12.5%) | 3 (12.5%) | 5 (20.8%) | 2 (8.3%) | 1 (4.2%) |
| 2 seeds | 3 (12.5%) | 4 (16.7%) | 3 (12.5%) | 2 (8.3%) | 6 (25%) | 3 (12.5%) | 3 (12.5%) |
| 3 seeds | 5 (20.8%) | 4 (16.7%) | 3 (12.5%) | 5 (20.8%) | 2 (8.3%) | 2 (8.3%) | 3 (12.5%) |
| 4 seeds | 6 (25%) | 7 (29.2%) | 3 (12.5%) | 2 (8.3%) | 2 (8.3%) | 3 (12.5%) | 1 (4.2%) |
| 5 seeds | 3 (12.5%) | 7 (29.2%) | 2 (8.3%) | 4 (16.7%) | 4 (16.7%) | 1 (4.2%) | 3 (12.5%) |
| 6 seeds | 8 (33.3%) | 5 (20.8%) | 2 (8.3%) | 2 (8.3%) | 4 (16.7%) | 3 (12.5%) |
0 (0.0%)
|
|
7 seeds
|
9 (37.5%) |
3 (12.5%)
|
4 (16.7%)
|
3 (12.5%)
|
3 (12.5%)
|
1 (4.2%)
|
1 (4.2%)
|
|
8 seeds
|
7 (29.2%) | 5 (20.8%) | 5 (20.8%) | 2 (8.3%) | 2 (8.3%) | 3 (12.5%) | 0 (0.0%) |
According to the data, 2023's regionals (where Arkansas, Clemson and Vanderbilt bowed out) were a bit more upset-happy as usual. Since 1999, national seeds have lost in the regional 22.9 percent of the time. In other words, approximately 1.8 national seeds fall in the opening weekend each year.
On average, 4.4 national seeds (55.2 percent) make it to Omaha for the eight-team Men's College World Series in a standard year. That average played out nicely in 2023, where five of the top-8 national seeds reached.
Once they get to Omaha, those numbers naturally slim. In the history of the modern NCAA baseball tournament, 30 national seeds (15.6 percent) have made it to the MCWS finals — 1.25 per tournament. Including LSU in 2023, just 12 have ever won the title (6.25 percent), or approximately one every 1.5 years.
That number had been trending down quite a bit, though. When the national seeds were first introduced, one of the eight ranked teams won the national championship over another ranked team in five straight years (from 1999-2003). From 2004 until Florida broke the drought in 2017, only two national seeds had won the title — 3-seed LSU in 2009 and 4-seed South Carolina in 2011. The Gators' win was the first in a streak of four straight national seeds winning it all — 3-seed Oregon State in 2018, 2-seed Vanderbilt in 2019 and 7-seed Mississippi State in 2021.
That first year of the national seed was actually the only time a No. 1 seed has ever won the tournament, when Miami (FL) took home the crown in 1999. In fact, No. 2 seeds have performed better than the No. 1 seed throughout history. Ten top seeds have failed to make the MCWS, compared to just seven No. 2 seeds. More No. 2 seeds have made the MCWS semifinals than No. 1 seeds (12 to eight), and No. 2 seeds have captured three titles.
So, how does all that compare to another popular 64-team tournament? Say, March Madness?
We looked at the performance of the top eight seeds in the NCAA Division I men’s basketball tournament (all No. 1 and No. 2 seeds) since that tournament expanded to its current state in 1985. Though the two tournaments’ formats differ drastically (basketball is single elimination while baseball is a resetting double elimination), for argument’s sake, we compared two tournaments starting at the point at which each has only eight teams left — baseball’s Men's College World Series and men's basketball’s Elite Eight:
| College World Series/Elite Eight | Championship Game | Champion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baseball (since 1999) | 55.2% | 62.5% | 50% |
| Basketball (since 1985) | 57.1% | 67.6% | 78.4% |
For as crazy as March is known to be, the top eight teams in basketball tend to perform better than their baseball counterparts.
June Madness doesn't work as a nickname... June Jamboree? It's a work in progress.
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