Momentum is such a buzzword in college wrestling. Announcers, coaches and analysts use it all the time.
— Jordan Burroughs
— Wyoming Wrestling
— FloWrestling
But how much does momentum truly dictate success? And, specifically, how much does potential momentum gained from a midseason tournament like Cliff Keen impact potential NCAA results?
The 2024 Cliff Keen Invitational Tournament will run from Friday, Dec. 6 through Saturday, Dec. 7 in Las Vegas and marks the biggest midseason tournament thus far. We ran the numbers to see just how much of a predictor this tournament can be of future success.
First, a quick explainer:
In order to assess the relationship between Cliff Keen winners and NCAA placement, krikya18.com looked at all 10 champs at Cliff Keen for the last five years, with the exception of 2019 since the 2020 tournament did not occur. Thus, Cliff Keen Invitational performances from 2017, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2023 were compared with their corresponding national championships in 2018, 2019, 2022, 2023 and 2024.
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A complete graph of how the Cliff Keen champs at each weight placed at the NCAAs that same year is included below, along with the key takeaways from the data. The Y axis represents the place that each Cliff Keen winner took at NCAAs. The X axis represents the year of each Cliff Keen Invitational. Each line represents a different weight class. If there is no bullet point on a weight class line for a given year, the Cliff Keen winner that year did not finish on the podium.
Long story short, Cliff Keen success does not directly predict wins at NCAAs. Wrestling is unpredictable by nature. But there are still some interesting trends in the data worth unpacking.
Only 9 NCAA champs won Cliff Keen the same season they won their NCAA titles
Of the 50 Cliff Keen champions in the last five years, fewer than 20% of those winners went on to capture an NCAA title in the same year. The two most recent Cliff Keen Invitational champs turned NCAA champs are Ohio State's Jesse Mendez at 141 pounds and Northern Iowa's Parker Keckeisen at 184 pounds.
Mendez beat two All-Americans — Brock Hardy and Ryan Jack — in his Cliff Keen bracket last year and four All-Americans — Clay Carlson, Anthony Echemendia, Hardy and Vance Vombaur — in his NCAA bracket. Keckeisen similarly had two All-Americans in his Cliff Keen bracket in Gavin Kane and Will Feldkamp and three All-Americans in Feldkamp, Trey Munoz and Dustin Plott in his NCAA bracket. The fact that both athletes hit a familiar All-American caliber opponent in both Cliff Keen and NCAAs speaks to the depth of this midseason tournament; the talent at both this event and the national tournament is one reason why only the minority of athletes replicate their success. It's hard to beat the best twice. Not every athlete in the country competes at Cliff Keen, but this tournament does offer the chance for some of the best in the nation to test themselves in a similar setting a full month into the season.
The only athlete in the last five years, excluding 2019, who won Cliff Keen more than once and won an NCAA title during those same seasons is Cornell's Yianni Diakomihalis, who earned his Cliff Keen titles in 2017 and 2021 and his respective NCAA titles in 2018 and 2022. Diakomihalis also won NCAA titles in 2019 and 2024, making him the only four-time champion in the last five years to also have a Cliff Keen title.
His Cornell teammate Vito Arujau also won Cliff Keen the same year he won his first NCAA title — 2023 — and he followed that up with a second NCAA title the next season.
Rutgers is the only other school with two athletes who have both won Cliff Keen and NCAAs in the same year, as two-time NCAA Nick Suriano and one-time champion and current Princeton assistant coach Anthony Ashnault both won Cliff Keen in 2018 and followed that up with a national title in 2019.
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Michigan, though, is the only school with an athlete in the last five years who won a Cliff Keen title in the same season that he also won an NCAA title and a Hodge Trophy: 2024 Olympian Mason Parris.
Arizona State has an interesting history with Cliff Keen momentum, however, as star Sun Devil Zahid Valencia won this midseason tournament in 2017 as well before winning a title, while 2024 NCAA champion Richard Figueroa won Cliff Keen in 2022, before losing out on the starting spot and winning an NCAA title the following season.
In addition to Figueroa, Northwestern's Ryan Deakin — who won Cliff Keen in 2018 and 2021 — Minnesota's Gable Steveson and Princeton's Patrick Glory, all won the midseason tournament the year before they took home their NCAA titles, though Deakin did also win it in the same season. Ohio State's Luke Pletcher won Cliff Keen in 2017 and had the No. 1 seed heading into the 2020 tournament before it was cancelled.
In the opposite scenario, Ohio State's Myles Martin won back-to-back Cliff Keen titles in the two years following his 2017 national title as a true freshman.
The athletes who won Cliff Keen titles in 2023 and would be looking to follow in the footsteps of Figueroa, Steveson, Deakin and Glory are Nico Provo of Stanford at 125 pounds, Kai Orine of NC State now up at 141 pounds, Ridge Lovett of Nebraska at 149 pounds, Cade DeVos at 174 pounds and Yonger Bastida at heavyweight.
More athletes went on to not place at NCAAs than won titles after winning Cliff Keen
The expected trajectory after winning a tournament like the Cliff Keen Las Vegas Invitational would be an NCAA title or at least an NCAA podium finish. But, for 10 athletes in the last five years, the midseason tournament win not only didn't translate to a national title, it translated into falling just short of the podium that same year.
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Figueroa, as previously mentioned, didn't make the starting lineup after he won his tournament in 2022, though he made up for that in 2024 by winning his weight at nationals.
Cliff Keen champs Dylan Ragusin and Taylor LaMont also finished off the podium the year that they won Cliff Keen, but they both placed either in year's prior or after their Cliff Keen winning season. Ragusin, for instance, won Cliff Keen in 2021 but would not earn his first All-American honor until 2024, when he took fifth at 133 pounds. LaMont, similarly, won Cliff Keen in 2017 but would earn his first All-American honor in 2021.
Clay Carlson, Yonger Bastida and Justin Oliver all earned All-American honors at least one year prior to winning the Cliff Keen Invitational, but they did not place the same year they won the midseason tournament. Carlson did also earn All-American honors again the year after his Cliff Keen winning season, something Bastida will try to replicate this year.
Ohio State's and Oregon State's Gary Traub, meanwhile, won Cliff Keen in 2021 but came up just short of the podium in the Blood Round in his career.
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Two winners from the last five years — Stanford's Nico Provo and NC State's Isaac Trumble — will look to build on their success from Cliff Keen in 2022 and 2023, respectively, with podium finishes this season. Provo has not yet wrestled a match this year and is not listed in the pre-seeds for this year's Cliff Keen tournament, whereas Trumble, who is fresh off an Olympic redshirt, is 6-1 on the year and is currently seeded second for the event. Both have previously qualified for the national tournament at least twice and are podium threats this year.
Former NCAA and Cliff Keen champs return for more glory this year
This year's Cliff Keen tournament is expected to feature three former NCAA champions — Jesse Mendez, Caleb Henson and Parker Keckeisen — as well as former Cliff Keen champions including Ridge Lovett, Cade DeVos, Brock Hardy, Sammy Sasso, Isaac Trumble and Dylan Ragusin.
Of then 10 weight classes in this event, 125, 149, 165 and 184 are the deepest, as each includes a total of four former NCAA placewinners in the current pre-seeds, but, of those, 125 and 165 are the most open — none of those weights includes a returning champ.
Nebraska's Caleb Smith places the lightest weight class in the seeds, followed in second in the pre-seeds by 2023 NCAA finalist and 2024 Round of 12 finisher Matt Ramos. Smith and Ramos have split their two previous matches. Oklahoma's Troy Spratley, who has not yet placed at NCAAs but has a win over All-American Jore Volk this year, is seeded third, with All-Americans Tanner Jordan and Eddie Ventresca holding down the No. 4 and No. 5 seeds. All of these athletes have the potential to not only win the weight in Vegas but win the weight in March, given the unpredictability of 125 pounds. This is their chance to make that statement.
The 133 and 141 pound weight classes are expected to include two and three All-Americans total, respectively, with Ohio State's Jesse Mendez serving as the only national champ and biggest name across those two weights after winning NCAAs in a last-second takedown in 2024.
At 149, Virginia Tech's Caleb Henson paces the group, though 2023 Cliff Keen champ Ridge Lovett will be looking for revenge. Lovett beat Henson at this tournament last year and then lost to the Hokie 1-0 in the national semifinals. Both wrestlers are undefeated coming into this event. Don't count out Iowa State's Anthony Echemendia, though. Echemendia had Iowa All-American Kyle Parco in danger a few weeks ago at the Cy-Hawk dual, and he's a threat, particularly from the neutral position. Stanford All-American Jaden Abas will also be in the mix at this weight along with a number of new faces.
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The interesting thing about 157 pounds is the nature of the pre-seeds. Nebraska's Antrell Taylor, who took eighth last year, leads the group, and the Huskers have historically been successful at this tournament, winning the team title at Cliff Keen in 2021 and 2022. Ohio's Peyten Kellar, last year's fifth-place finisher, is at No. 2. Ryder Downey of Northern Iowa is third, with Ohio State's Paddy Gallagher fourth. The land mines in the bracket could be NC State's Ed Scott and Iowa State's Paniro Johnson. Neither has had explosive starts to their year, with Scott taking losses to Jude Swisher and Jimmy Harrington and Johnson wrestling only one DI match so far, an injury default win over Jacori Teemer. Both have beaten NCAA finalists earlier in their career and can be dangerous if they compete at full form.
The 165 and 174 pound weight class have a combined six All-Americans but no returning NCAA champions, though each weight does have a former Cliff Keen champ in the bracket. At 165 pounds, Ohio State's Sammy Sasso, the 2022 Cliff Keen winner at 149 pounds, comes in at the No. 2 seed as he continues to make his comeback following a gun shot wound last fall. He currently trails No. 1 West Virginia All-American Peyton Hall in the pre-seeds, and these two have never wrestled in their collegiate careers.
The other big name to watch at 165 pounds is Utah Valley's Terrell Barraclough, who has been on a tear this year and has wins over All-American Cameron Amine and Hunter Garvin, who come in seeded at No. 6 and No. 4 behind No. 3 Barraclough.
At 174 pounds, 2023 Cliff Keen champion Cade DeVos will be back to defend his title with his toughest competition likely coming from new Cowboy All-American Dean Hamiti and Nebraska's Lenny Pinto. Nebraska has won 174 pounds at Cliff Keen two of the last five years, with both of those wins coming from NCAA finalist Mikey Labriola, who has since graduated.
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The 184-pound weight class is one of the deepest in the tournament, with returning NCAA and Cliff Keen champ Parker Keckeisen, NCAA finalist Dustin Plott and All-Americans Bennett Berge and TJ Stewart, though Keckeisen's historical dominance over this field may make 197 pounds the more intriguing of these two upperweights.
Leading the 197 pound pre-seeds was Cal State Bakersfield's AJ Ferrari, the 2021 NCAA champion at the weight. Ferrari, though, is no longer expected to wrestle. No. 2 seed Jacob Cardenas of Michigan will slot into that first spot, with All-American Trey Munoz of Michigan taking the No. 3 seed.
The heavyweight class, with its three All-Americans led by No. 1 seed Wyatt Hendrickson, rounds out this year's field. The heavyweight champs in 2023, 2022, 2021, 2018 and 2017 include three Olympians — Mason Parris, Gable Steveson and Adam Coon. It's no secret Hendrickson hopes to add his name to that list. First, he'll hope to win his first title in Vegas as a Cowboy with his toughest competition likely coming from former senior world team member Cohlton Schultz and U23 World Champion Isaac Trumble, who are seeded No. 2 and No. 3, respectively.
