With the college wrestling season a few weeks away, it’s the perfect time to make some bold yet fun 2025 championship predictions. So, here are some way-too-early expectations for what could happen in each weight class at the national tournament this March.
125 pounds: Matt Ramos, Purdue
The 125-pound weight class was the most volatile weight last year with Arizona State’s Richard Figueroa ultimately taking the crown after a 7-2 battle against Drake Ayala of Iowa. Figueroa is back, making him an obvious choice for a championship pick, but I’m predicting that Purdue’s Matt Ramos finds a way to jump levels and top the rest of the field.
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In 2023, Ramos put himself in the national spotlight when he pinned three-time NCAA champion Spencer Lee in the national semifinals. He ultimately went on to drop his finals match to Princeton’s Patrick Glory, but the Ramos that wrestling fans saw on that shocking Friday night in March is still there. He’s still as funky and strong as ever. He’s capable of winning a national title, even if last year’s results suggest a different story.
Ramos finished 2024 with a 27-7 record and a Round of 12 loss to Lehigh’s Luke Stanich. His performance thus put him all the way down at No. 5 in FloWrestling’s rankings for this season after beginning last year ranked No. 1.
But Ramos wrestles everyone tough.
He took a 3-2 loss to national champion Figueroa at last year’s Cliff Keen Invitational, and he wrestled Lock Haven’s Anthony Noto — currently ranked No. 2 — to a 4-1 sudden victory match in the national quarterfinals. He also split matches with No. 4 Caleb Smith of Nebraska and last year’s NCAA finalist Drake Ayala of Iowa. After entering last season with all the pressure of the world on his shoulders following his Spencer Lee win, Ramos can now start this year without that lingering storyline or any pressure at all. He’s no longer just "the guy that beat Spencer Lee." He’s instead simply Purdue’s All-American lightweight, someone who can turn up the heat and make some noise, even when no one expects it.
There’s no prediction too wild at 125 pounds given the chaos of this weight. Figueroa would be a fine choice, as would Nico Provo, the 2023 Cliff Keen Champion. You could also make a case for All-American Jore Volk, who has a win over Figueroa, or Noto, another All-American. Or Caleb Smith. Or Cooper Flynn. Or Stevo Poulin. The list goes on. This is a fun weight where anything can happen, but Ramos is certainly in the mix as a title contender who can bring championship hardware back to West Lafayette.
133 pounds: Ryan Crookham, Lehigh
Predicting the No. 1-ranked athlete in the weight to win a title isn’t necessarily bold, but in this case, Lehigh’s Ryan Crookham is the logical choice, at least right now. Crookham made headlines last year when he beat 2023 senior world champion Vito Arujau at the Journeyman Classic and earned his starting spot for the Mountain Hawks.
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He then backed up that win with a second victory against Arujau at the EIWA championships, securing him the No. 2 seed at the NCAA tournament behind Oklahoma State’s Daton Fix. At the national tournament, however, Arujau reversed his result against Crookham, topping the Mountain Hawk 13-3 before going on to beat Fix to win his second title. Crookham, meanwhile, battled back for third with a consolation finals win over Little Rock’s Nasir Bailey. The semifinal loss was the only blemish on an otherwise perfect season for Crookham.
Now Arujau is gone — and this is Crookham’s time. He already has two wins over No. 2 Bailey (4-3; 4-2), a win over No. 5 Evan Frost (4-1) and a win over No. 8 Aaron Nagao (6-4) from last year’s freshman season, and now he’ll be able to head into this season with the confidence that he can compete at the highest level on the national stage. One unique wrinkle in the 133-pound weight class, though, will be the addition of last year’s NCAA finalist at 125 pounds, Drake Ayala. Crookham beat Iowa’s 133-pounder Brody Teske last year 8-3, but Ayala will offer a different challenge. The Hawkeye veteran spent the summer training with Spencer Lee during his run-up to the Paris Games and has only continued to improve in his three years. Up a weight, Ayala could be dangerous.
Iowa and Lehigh don’t dual, but Crookham will get to test himself against Penn State’s All-American Aaron Nagao early in the season when the Mountain Hawks and the Nittany Lions meet in Allentown, Pennsylvania for their Dec. 8 dual. This match should offer some indication of where two of top 10 athletes in the weight class stack up and what Crookham’s chances might be to chase his first national title in Philadelphia this March.
141 pounds: Jesse Mendez, Ohio State
As the returning champ at this weight class, Jesse Mendez may also feel like a smart prediction, but unlike Ryan Crookahm at 133 pounds, Mendez actually isn’t starting the year as the top-ranked athlete in the weight. Instead, that honor belongs to Andrew Alirez, the 2023 champion at 141 pounds who took an Olympic redshirt last season. Alirez went 27-0 in his last folkstyle season, notching wins over NCAA finalists Beau Bartlett and Real Woods and All-Americans Lachlan McNeil and Clay Carlson.
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Mendez, on the other hand, went 29-2 last year, with his only losses coming in duals against Bartlett and Pittsburgh’s Cole Matthews, who has since graduated. Mendez did avenge his dual loss to Bartlett at the Big Ten tournament and the NCAA tournament, though the latter of those two matches came down to one funky scramble at the end.
Bartlett, Mendez and Alirez could all be title contenders, though Mendez earns the edge here both because of his clutch championship performance last year and because of his stellar results at the 2024 Olympic Trials where he beat NCAA finalist Joey McKenna, NCAA champion Nahshon Garrett and world silver medalists James Green and Yianni Diakomihalis to finish fourth. He outplaced Alirez and Bartlett and showed the kind of guts and strength needed to win this weight again. Mendez is a winner, and he’ll have a chance to add to his resume and his legacy this year.
149 pounds: Ridge Lovett, Nebraska
Nebraska’s Ridge Lovett starts the season ranked No. 5, making him one of the lowest-ranked athletes to be on this championship prediction list, but his career accolades suggest that he’s absolutely capable of finishing the season on top.
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In 2022, Lovett raced to the national finals to earn his first All-American credential before ultimately dropping to four-time NCAA champion Yianni Diakomihalis, 11-5. He returned for the start of the 2023-24 season after a redshirt year and looked every bit like a national champion. He won the Cliff Keen Invitational, beating All-Americans Dylan D’Emilio, Caleb Henson and Quinn Kinner, and he held an undefeated record through nearly the entire season before dropping a February dual to Kyle Parco, then of Arizona State, 4-3. Still, Lovett earned the top seed at the national tournament and was the presumed favorite.
After dominating his first three matches, Lovett ran into Henson again in the semifinals. This time, the Hokie was ready. He slowed down Lovett and won by an escape point in the third period, punching his ticket to the finals where he would beat Austin Gomez of Michigan and become the second NCAA champ in Virginia Tech history. Lovett, on the other hand, dropped down to the consolation bracket and took losses to Parco and Penn State’s Tyler Kasak, finishing sixth.
Henson and Parco are back, and Penn State All-American Shayne Van Ness is expected to slot into Kasak’s position. West Virginia’s Ty Watters, who finished fourth last year, will also be in contention, as will All-Americans Anthony Echemendia, Lachlan McNeil, Jaden Abas, D’Emilio and Round of 12 finisher Jackson Arrington, who has a win over Henson.
Caleb “The Hitman” Henson is the man to beat, and there’s no reason to think that he won’t win again. But Lovett has one more shot at a title, and there’s something about senior season magic that can help athletes dig deep and find a special new level.
157 pounds: Jacori Teemer, Iowa
The Hawkeyes have put a wrestler in the national finals every year since 1990, and I predict this trend continues through 2025, though that finalist may ultimately be a transfer wrestler from Arizona State.
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Three-time All-American Jacori Teemer comes to Iowa City after a stellar career as a Sun Devil, and he’ll slot in perfectly at a weight previously held down by North Dakota State transfer All-American Jared Franek, an athlete Teemer beat in all four of their meetings.
Teemer took second at last year’s NCAA tournament behind Levi Haines of Penn State, though Haines is now moving up to 174 pounds, leaving Teemer to lead a weight without a returning champion. The No. 2 athlete at the weight, Meyer Shapiro at Cornell, is on an upward trajectory after his 29-3 season and third-place national finish last year, but taking down a veteran like Teemer will be no easy task. Teemer’s resume includes career wins over NCAA finalists Quincy Monday and Hayden Hidlay as well as All-Americans Hunter Willits, Wyatt Sheets and Josh Humphreys. In last year’s semifinals, Teemer majored Stanford All-American Daniel Cardenas, the No. 3 athlete at the weight, just after Cardenas beat Shapiro. Though Shapiro did avenge that loss to Cardenas in the consolation finals, there’s still separation between Teemer and the rest of the field.
Penn State’s Tyler Kasak is another notable name at this weight, as the 2024 third-place finisher at 149 pounds is now moving up. He comes into the year ranked No. 4. Just a sophomore, Kasak will have a tough challenge ahead of him to take down someone like Teemer, but his postseason performance last year where he beat All-American D’Emilio at the Big Ten tournament and topped Lovett, Ty Watters and Quinn Kinner at the NCAA tournament shows his potential.
Paniro Johnson of Iowa State is also a potential bracket buster and someone to watch, as he comes into the season ranked No. 11, but he has career wins over Olympian Austin Gomez and All-Americans Max Murin, Shayne Van Ness and Brock Mauller down at 149 pounds. He will also compete at the 2024 U23 World Team Trials up at 70kg alongside NCAA All-Americans Jacob Cardenas (92kg) and Mitchell Mesenbrink (74kg).
165 pounds: Mitchell Mesenbrink, Penn State
Speaking of Mitchell Mesenbrink, the Nittany Lion fan favorite is back and ready to take over 165 pounds. After redshirting his freshman season at California Baptist, Mesenbrink transferred to Penn State last season and immediately started lighting up the scoreboard. He roared to a Big Ten title at 165 pounds and held a perfect 26-0 record until the national finals. In a heated battle with Iowa State’s David Carr, Mesenbrink ultimately dropped 9-8, finishing his freshman year as a national finalist.
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With Carr graduating and Missouri’s two-time 165-pound NCAA champion Keegan O’Toole moving up, Mesenbrink is the stand-alone leader at the weight. He’ll have competitors, of course, but he’s a name that fans should expect to see racking up wins throughout the season with style. He’s bonused the No. 2 athlete at the weight class, Iowa All-American Michael Caliendo, twice, majoring him at NCAAs and teching him at Big Tens.
Outside of Mesenbrink and Caliendo, the weight features just three other All-Americans, including Stanford’s Hunter Garvin, West Virginia’s Peyton Hall and Oklahoma State’s Cameron Amine. Mesenbrink also majored Amine but he has not wrestled Garvin nor Hall. Cornell’s Julian Ramirez is also a sneaky former Round of 12 finisher who has wins over former champs Carr and Shane Griffith, though he too has never wrestled Mesenbrink. If there’s a non-All-American dark horse in the weight, it’s Ramirez. Until proven otherwise, though, this weight is all Mitchell Mesenbrink.
174 pounds: Keegan O’Toole, Missouri
Keegan O’Toole has made a name for himself as one of the funkiest wrestlers in the NCAA, and he’s bringing that funk up to 174 pounds after winning two titles and finishing third twice at 165 pounds. He’s not the only one bumping up, though.
Joining O’Toole at 174 pounds is the reigning champ at 157 pounds: Penn State’s Levi Haines. These two actually clashed earlier this fall at the 2024 Senior World Team Trials at 79kg (174.156), where Haines dominated the freestyle match. I still predict that O’Toole finds a way to win in folkstyle, however. Haines is tough, and he’s absolutely capable of adding more titles to his resume, but on the mat, O’Toole has an “it” factor. He’s also a senior, competing one last time for Missouri, and that aspect could come into play in a matchup that has the potential to be especially close.
O'Toole has also proven himself at 174 pounds in college already after bumping up to take on All-American Edmond Ruth of Illinois late last year and winning the match in high-scoring fashion. Now he gets a full season at this new weight. Watch out.
Oklahoma State transfer All-American Dean Hamiti is also moving up to 174 pounds from 165 pounds, and he’ll be looking to challenge O’Toole as well. In their lone meeting thus far in college at the 2022 All-Star Classic, O’Toole topped Hamiti 7-1, but Hamiti has a new series of training partners now in Cameron Amine and the rest of the Oklahoma State team. Has he jumped levels? That question will likely be answered when these two dual each other in the Missouri vs. Oklahoma State bout on Feb. 2 and potentially again in the Big 12 tournament.
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Not to be left out of this discussion is Rocco Welsh, last year’s NCAA finalist. Welsh was just a freshman in the 2023-24 season and posted an impressive 24-5 record. He also only gave up two points against four-time NCAA champion Carter Starocci in their championship match. He’s hard-nosed and solid, a contrast to the style of O’Toole and Hamiti, but he’s someone who is so tough defensively and only getting better.
184 pounds: Carter Starocci, Penn State
It’s returning champ and Hodge Trophy finalist No. 1 Carter Starocci vs. returning champ and Hodge Trophy finalist No. 2 Parker Keckeisen at 184 pounds this year. Flip a coin. Take your pick. Both choices are great.
I’m predicting that Penn State’s Starocci prevails up a weight class and wins his fifth NCAA title over Northern Iowa’s Keckeisen, the reigning champ at the weight. There’s no reason for this prediction except that Starocci has already won four titles and Keckeisen has just one. Granted, Starocci won all four of his titles at 174 pounds, but he’s big enough to wrestle up, and he’s gutsy enough to go toe-to-toe with a guy like Keckeisen, who just dominates everyone in his path. In fact, watching Starocci go through NCAA champions Mekhi Lewis and Shane Griffith with an injured leg at last year’s national tournament and grit his to way to a win in his finals match against Rocco Welsh reinforces just what a competitor he is.
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Keckeisen has a similar workmanlike style to his wrestling, and he put up a bonus rate last year of 90%+, majoring Dustin Plott of Oklahoma State in the national finals. Starocci vs. Keckeisen is the match everyone wants to see.
Outside of these two, there are some notable All-Americans returning in Plott, Oregon State’s Trey Munoz, Iowa’s Nelson Brands, South Dakota State’s Bennett Berge, Illinois’ Edmond Ruth and Virginia Tech’s TJ Stewart, but my sense is that this is a two-man race to the top.
197 pounds: Stephen Little, Little Rock
Little Rock has never had a national champion in program history. I predict that changes in 2024.
As a redshirt freshman last year, Little Rock’s 197-pounder Stephen Little posted a 25-4 record and finished seventh in the country. His only losses came against All-Americans Stephen Buchanan and Jacob Cardenas. Both Buchanan and Cardenas are back and ranked No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, so they would be the safe predictions, especially since Cardenas pinned Little and Buchanan majored him in their last meeting. Cardenas and Buchanan are also now in new Big Ten training environments and could see improvements themselves, making them even more dangerous. But sometimes you have to expect the unexpected — and that’s what I’m doing here.
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Within the last five years, Little Rock head coach Neil Erisman has taken his program from the ground floor to a top-25 team in the country, and I see Stephen Little on that same rapid upward trajectory. He already has career wins over All-Americans Michael Beard, Louie DePrez and TJ Stewart, and he’ll have the chance to test himself early this season too with more high-ranked competition.
The Trojans will travel to Missouri on Nov. 9 for the Tiger Style Invite, where Little could meet No. 3 Rocky Elam, a four-time All-American he has not wrestled yet in his career. If Elam and Little don’t clash there, they’ll likely see each other again on Dec. 22 when Little Rock duals Missouri. Elam poses a challenge to Little because of his strength and experience, but having that match before second semester allows both athletes to make adjustments.
Then, on Feb. 16, Little could take on 2021 NCAA champion AJ Ferrari in the Little Rock vs. CSU Bakersfield dual. The results of that match will have major Pac-12 tournament seeding implications and let fans see where both Little and Ferrari are at in their title quest. Ferrari comes into the season ranked No. 4 behind Elam but has not wrestled a full season since 2021. That match will be in California, too, which could lead to a rowdy scene.
Little is certainly not an athlete who will be expected to dominate everyone and roll to a title. He’s in a tough weight class with one former champion. There’s a path, however, and after predicting so many No. 1-ranked athletes to go all the way, I’ll say that 197 becomes a little more wild.
285 pounds: Wyatt Hendrickson, Oklahoma State
This is another weight where I’m not predicting the assumed result. Greg Kerkvliet, the 2024 NCAA heavyweight champion, looked unreal last season, posting an undefeated record with a 70% bonus rate. He’s ranked No. 1 heading into the year for good reason, and there’s absolutely nothing that suggests that he won’t repeat.
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But Wyatt Hendrickson is just the right kind of competitor to potentially cause disruption. The two-time Air Force All-American graduated in May and elected to transfer to Oklahoma State to wrestle his fifth season with the Cowboys. He’s now training under the leadership of Olympic gold medalist David Taylor with one more shot at NCAA glory.
Last season, Hendrickson won U23 world gold in freestyle and posted a 25-2 record in folkstyle, his only losses coming against Yonger Bastida in the regular season and Lucas Davison in the national semifinals. Hendrickson finished third at NCAAs for the second year in a row. He’s also already won two Wade Schalles awards for the most pins and has become known for his dominance.
Hendrickson and Kerkvliet have wrestled just twice, once at the 2023 NCAA tournament where Kerkvliet earned a 4-2 win and once at the 2023 All-Star dual where Kerkvliet teched Hendrickson, though Hendrickson was injured from his U23 gold medal match. Both Hendrickson and Kerkvliet are high-scoring, fast-paced, athletic heavyweights, and any match between the two of them would be fun. Either could win, but I do predict that Hendrickson takes the crown this time and becomes the first Cowboy national champion in the David Taylor era.
There’s also a chance, of course, that someone else emerges from the pack of talented athletes behind this top two. Iowa State’s Yonger Bastida was absolutely in the title conversation last year after his win over Hendrickson, and while he finished off the podium last year after injuring his finger, he’s back and likely to compete for top honors. Ohio State’s Nick Feldman, Arizona State’s Cohlton Schultz, Rutgers’ Yaraslau Slavikouski and Campbell’s Taye Ghadiali have also previously earned All-American honors and pushed top-ranked guys. Isaac Trumble and Ben Kueter, who earned medals on U23 and U20 world teams in the past, also can’t be ignored. This is a heavyweight class full of dynamic, experienced athletes, and any one of them could emerge in March. But there’s something about Hendrickson and his ability to score points combined with his new coaching staff and training partners in Stillwater that pushes him over the edge for me in these early season predictions.
