The 2024 DII football championship selections were announced on Sunday, Nov. 17, and 28 teams are ready to duke it out for DII football supremacy. The reigning national champion Harding Bisons are back in the mix; however, the defending national runners-up — Colorado School of Mines — are not.
There are a few things to remember. One, these are primarily for fun and are my thoughts only — it has nothing to do with the NCAA selection committee or any committee at all. I spent all season closely following DII football and tracking the numbers in and the only thing we know with certainty is that we can expect the unexpected.
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Take Ouachita Baptist, for example. The Tigers ended Harding's 25-game winning streak, began the rollercoaster atop the Power 10 rankings that lasted four weeks... and two weeks later lost to 0-8 Southern Nazarene. This is the first season in an eternity that we have seen four different No. 1 teams, and the preseason No. 2 (Central Missouri) is not even in the bracket.
RANKINGS: Ouachita Baptist jumps back into the DII football Power 10
Simply put, this season was bananas in the best way possible, and if I get two national semifinal teams correct, it will be a moral victory of epic proportions. You'll see there is a mix of upsets and top seeds moving forward — whether or not I picked the right upsets is the question. While the DII football bracket isn't typically the home of upsets, it feels like there are quite a few waiting in the wings.
Super Region One
Team to beat: Charleston (WV). It is really hard to go against that Kutztown defense, but the Golden Bears' offense has been a bit all over the place this year. I don't think there is a defense that can stop this Golden Eagles' offense, but Kutztown should be able to slow it down. Kutztown barely eked by last year, defeating Charleston 32-31 in the second round and I think the Golden Eagles have that box score posted to the bulletin board right now and revenge on their mind.
Team to watch: East Stroudsburg. Of the four PSAC teams in this Super Region, East Stroudsburg has only faced one of them. That one team the Warriors faced was Kutztown, and although it was a loss, they dropped 21 points on the Golden Eagles — the most points scored on the No. 2 defense in DII football this season. Now, East Stroudsburg has played the weakest SoS in Super Region One, but without a lot of head-to-head matchups, perhaps the Warriors stun a few people.
Don't be surprised if: Chavon Wright breaks the DII football single-season rushing touchdown record five minutes into the DII football championship. He needs just one... Also, I wonder if Cal (PA) can shake things up and make it to the national semifinals. The Vulcans have a win against Slippery Rock and played Kutztown and Charleston (WV) very well despite losing. It's never easy to beat a team twice in the same season, so we shall see what lessons the Vulcans learned along the way.
Numbers to know: If defense truly does win championships, then Super Region One goes through Kutztown. The Golden Bears allow 8.82 points per game, the second-fewest in DII... If New Haven upsets Slippery Rock, it may be because of the return game. Running back Kha'lil Eason has been arguably the best in DII, with three kickoff returns for touchdowns, including two in one game against Pace... That said, New Haven has been in every tournament since 2021 and only has one win to show for it. Slippery Rock has been in every tournament since 2018 and has six wins to show for it. That could be the edge and how The Rock gets by.
Super Region Two
Team to beat: Valdosta State. The Blazers are no strangers to deep runs in the postseason, and this team kind of has that feel. The offense is balanced — two running backs have found the end zone 11 times this season — quarterback Sammy Edwards plays smart football with 23 touchdown passes and just two interceptions, and they have multiple guys that can get to the quarterback on defense. The schedule wasn't the toughest early on, but the Blazers closed strongly, defeating Delta State and West Florida quite easily.
Team to watch: Miles. Why not get crazy? Remember, we have seen BIG surprises in Super Region Two in recent history. Two years ago, unseeded Wingate not only made it to the Super Region Two championship — the Bulldogs absolutely dominated in two huge upsets in the first two rounds. When West Florida won the national championship in 2019, the Argos were also unseeded and pulled off five upsets to win it all. These Golden Bears have not really been tested, but showed they could hang in a one-point loss to West Alabama to open the season.
Don't be surprised if: Wingate romps its way to the national semifinals and wins Super Region Two. This defense is legit, allowing just 10 points per game and 202.8 yards per game, both of which are top 10 marks in DII. Valdosta State and West Alabama haven't faced defenses like Wingate's this season, and that could be a huge advantage for the Bulldogs.
Numbers to know: Valdosta State has the No. 3 scoring defense in DII and the No. 6 scoring offense in DII. The Blazers have also turned over the ball four times, the fewest in DII. Good luck trying to come back against a team that doesn't allow points or cough up the football... Virginia Union's Jada Byers is having another monster season that has gotten a bit overlooked with Chavon Wright breaking records. Byers has 1,670 yards on the ground and 24 touchdowns. He is the active leader in all college football with 5,5694 yards rushing and third with 71 career touchdowns... Miles has the most interceptions of any team in the entire tournament field with 23, three of which were pick-sixes... Super Region Two has the fewest teams returning from the 2023 championship with just three: Valdosta State, Lenoir-Rhyne and Virginia Union (which played in Super Region One last year). All the rest of the Super Regions have five teams returning.
Super Region Three
Team to beat: Ferris State. Honestly, I think five of the teams in this portion of the bracket can win the DII football championship. Yes, the Bulldogs lost to Pittsburg State, but that is not the same team that we've seen the past few weeks. Ferris State righted the ship in September scoring 183 points in three games and finished strong with commanding wins against Michigan Tech, Grand Valley State and Davenport while getting a tightly contest must-win victory against Saginaw Valley State — all four of which had winning records and sniffed the postseason conversation at one point. As I said, this part of the bracket is loaded, and nothing is easy, but that first-round bye and home-field advantage is tremendous in Super Region Three.
Team to watch: Grand Valley State. I know, bold pick. The Lakers are the No. 2 seed and should have little issue with UIndy. As usual, the Lakers have a balanced team, especially on defense with three 50-tackle players that cause havoc on opposing offenses. But they have been up and down this season. The thing here is that the Lakers have a lot of history that could fuel the fire. Should they advance to the second round and get Harding, last year's 7-6 slugfest loss must still taste bad, and if they get past Harding, Ferris State may await — the team that ended their reign at No. 1 and perfect season this year at the Anchor Bone Classic.
Don't be surprised if: Harding sneaks through. This team has a ton of playoff experience. The first-round matchup against Pittsburg State isn't ideal — the Gorillas have a top-25 rush defense — but again, that experience looms large. If Harding can jump out and dictate the tempo, the Bisons could roll on in a potential rematch against Grand Valley State from last year.
Numbers to know: Three of the top six scoring defenses are right here in Super Region Three. Harding leads DII with 8.6 points allowed per game, Ouachita Baptist is fourth with 9.6, and Ferris State is sixth with 11.0...Harding once again is leading all of college football in rushing, nearly 1,100 yards better than the next closest DII team with 4,634 yards and 60 touchdowns. That's more than 10,000 yards rushing in the past two seasons for the Bisons... Central Oklahoma's Jett Huff has more passing touchdowns (30) than any quarterback in the 28-team field. The next closest is East Stroudsburg's Sean McTaggart, who trails by six.
Super Region Four
Team to beat: CSU Pueblo. There is no part of the bracket more wide open than Super Region Four. There are no undefeated teams and four three-loss teams here — there are only two other three-loss teams in the entire field and they both barely got into the bracket. As I mentioned in the latest DII football Power 10 rankings, the last time the ThunderWolves won the RMAC — as they did this year — they went and won a national championship. CSU Pueblo beat the three other RMAC superpowers — Western Colorado, Colorado School of Mines and Colorado Mesa — by at least 10 points each and its only loss was by three points to the No. 2 team in DII football, Grand Valley State. This team is balanced on both sides of the ball and their resume speaks for itself.
Team to watch: Bemidji State. The Beavers put themselves into the conversation two weeks ago and then punched their ticket with a big win against Augustana (SD) to close the season. People talk about this being Bemidji State's fourth-straight trip to the tournament, but what isn't talked about enough is that the Beavers have won at least one game in each trip. They have a tall order against Angelo State, but the Beavers are hot and are no strangers to bringing big-time upsets in November. The Beavers have one of the best defensive units in DII allowing just over 15 points per game and 240.8 yards per game, both top-20 marks.
Don't be surprised if: Central Washington upsets Western Colorado... again. This is a rematch from last year, one in which the Wildcats defeated the Mountaineers in a thrilling overtime matchup. It should be another low-scoring affair as both of these teams have two of the best run defenses in DII — Western Colorado is 5th in DII allowing 74.2 rushing yards per game and Central Washington is 12th allowing 83.1. The advantage is Tanner Volk and that pass defense, which has allowed 127.4 passing yards per game, the fifth-fewest in DII.
Numbers to know: The NSIC was so balanced this season that no team had fewer than three losses. I had said in one of my projections to not be surprised if a three-loss team goes far this year, and we are already guaranteed a three-loss team in the second round with Minnesota State and Augustana (SD) facing off, a rematch of last year's first-round action. The Vikings upset Minnesota State earlier this season, giving head coach Jerry Olszewski his 80th win, the most by a head coach in Augustana history...Central Washington and Angelo State are balanced on both sides, but each team finds itself among the best defenses in DII. The Wildcats own the third-best total defense and the eighth-best scoring defense. Angelo State allows just 12.9 points per game, ninth best in DII.
The bracket
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