The case for and against 29 teams for an at-large bid to the 2025 FCS playoffs

The FCS playoff selection show is days away, and with one game left to play, it's time to take a look at the FCS at-large bubble. Let's take a deep dive into all of the cases of teams on the edge of the playoff field.

Guarantee-ish

First, we'll start with the five at-larges that have almost a guaranteed shot — in my opinion — to earn an at-large bid to the FCS playoffs regardless of Week 13's results:

No. 2 Montana or No. 3 Montana State

The winner of the Brawl of the Wild will earn the Big Sky’s auto bid — and likely the No. 2 seed in the playoffs. The loser will likely receive a first-round bye, even with a regular-season ending loss.

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No. 5 Tarleton State

Tarleton State will be into the FCS playoffs with a win or loss. The Texans currently have one loss to what figures to be a playoff team in Abilene Christian and an FBS win. The committee viewed Tarleton State as a top-five team even with the loss, so I think even with two FCS losses the Texans are safe.

Two of No. 7 Villanova, No. 9 Rhode Island and No. 11 Monmouth

One of Villanova, Rhode Island and Monmouth will receive the CAA’s auto bid. The two that don’t automatically make the playoffs will still make the playoffs as two of the CAA’s top three teams with one to two FCS losses.

No. 11 Illinois State

Illinois State already has eight FCS wins entering the season’s final week. The Redbirds have wins over South Dakota and South Dakota State with losses to North Dakota State and Youngstown State. If Illinois State beats Southern Illinois, the Redbirds are in for sure. Even if Illinois State loses to Southern Illinois, the Redbirds are likely still in the playoff picture thanks to its quality wins and a top-20 strength of schedule.

No. 21 South Dakota

South Dakota has a bye in the last week of the season. USD’s resume is set. The Coyotes have three FCS losses and eight FCS wins, including wins over fellow MVFC playoff contenders North Dakota, South Dakota State and Southern Illinois. Head-to-head losses to Lamar and Illinois State hurt the resume, but unless spots dwindle because of auto-bid upsets, South Dakota should get one of the at least four spots for the MVFC.

Conference races that could impact at-large spots

No. 4 Lehigh and No. 24 Lafayette

Lehigh was ranked No. 4 in the latest committee rankings. It’ll get in the playoffs even with one FCS loss if the Mountain Hawks lose to Lafayette. 

If Lafayette wins, it’ll earn the auto bid. If it loses, the Leopards will be on the bubble with two FCS losses and two FBS losses. However, the Leopards won’t have a ranked win when its resume is in front of the committee.

No. 8 Tennessee Tech

Tennessee Tech was No. 7 in the latest committee rankings and haven’t lost a game since. The Golden Eagles are in position for a bye if they beat UT Martin and take the OVC-Big South auto bid. Even if TTU loses, we’ve seen the committee think highly enough of it so far that they’ll likely still be in the playoffs.

In the event Tennessee Tech loses, that’ll mean that UT Martin — a team with five losses on the year — will earn the automatic bid, creating one fewer at-large spot.

No. 10 Harvard

The winner of Harvard-Yale will earn the Ivy League’s first-ever auto bid. While Yale has to win the auto bid to get in, Harvard at 9-0 could still get an at-large with a loss. The Crimson have dominated all but one opponent this season and were ranked No. 9 in the latest committee rankings. With only one FCS loss and nine FCS wins, Harvard’s resume would be hard to leave out.

No. 18 Abilene Christian

If Abilene Christian wins, it’ll receive the ASUN-WAC automatic bid. If it loses and doesn’t end up with the auto bid, things will get interesting for its playoff hopes. The Wildcats would have three FCS losses, seven FCS wins, wins over playoff teams Stephen F. Austin and Tarleton State plus a win over bubble team Austin Peay.

In the event Southern Utah wins the auto bid, there might be one less spot for the at-large teams, but Abilene Christian’s resume will be hard to ignore.

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Win and in

No. 14 UC Davis or Sacramento State

UC Davis and Sacramento State play in the last week of the regular season. No. 14 UC Davis might be in the playoffs even with a loss, but it’s too early to guarantee since the bubble might be small this year. UC Davis currently has seven FCS wins and two FCS losses, so if the Aggies hit the eight-win mark, they’ll be in.

Sacramento State has seven FCS wins and three FCS losses and will need a resume boosting win over a ranked team to get into the playoffs. With eight wins and a win over UC Davis, the Hornets would get the nod over the Aggies and likely jump Northern Arizona in the minds of most in the Big Sky pecking order. If Sacramento State loses, it’s likely out with four FCS losses.

No. 16 North Dakota or No. 22 South Dakota State

The winner of North Dakota and South Dakota State’s game will reach eight wins and get an at-large into the playoffs. The loser will end the season with a loss and on the bubble. See below for more.

No. 19 Lamar

Lamar would finish the season with nine wins and two FCS losses with a win over McNeese. Lamar would also have a bonafide nonconference win over South Dakota, plus another ranked win over Southeastern Louisiana. The Cardinals will grab an at-large.

New Hampshire

If New Hampshire beats Maine, it would have wins over Maine and William & Mary, two other CAA teams on the bubble entering this weekend. New Hampshire also beat a playoff-worthy Monmouth team. With eight FCS wins and three FCS losses, all New Hampshire have to do is win to make the playoffs as the fourth FCS team.

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FCS bubble

Here’s who’s left on the bubble, listed by FCS Coaches poll ranking and then alphabetically by conference.

Northern Arizona 

Case for (with win)

Northern Arizona would be 8-4 with a season-ending win, with FCS losses to Montana State, UC Davis and Idaho. Only the loss to Idaho is a bad one. The Lumberjacks also beat a Southern Utah team that could make the playoffs. It’ll be hard to leave an eight-win Big Sky team out.

Case against (with win)

Northern Arizona would have eight FCS wins, but only one win has been over a team with a winning record. The Lumberjacks lost to Montana State and UC Davis by an average of more than three touchdowns. Speaking of UC Davis, that head-to-head loss might keep Northern Arizona behind the Aggies if it comes down to the two of them on the bubble. With the playoff bubble looking tighter than ever, the Lumberjacks might be left on the outside looking in.

Maine

Case for (with win)

Maine opened the season 0-4 before winning seven of its last eight games in this scenario. A win over another bubble team, New Hampshire, gets the Black Bears the nod into the playoffs as one of the last teams in.

Case against (with win)

Even if Maine beats New Hampshire, it still will have a loss to William & Mary, another team on the bubble. Moreover, the Black Bears will only have seven FCS wins, with only one coming against a team with a winning record entering the season’s final week. That’s not enough to move past William & Mary for bubble consideration, nor past FCS teams with eight wins.

William & Mary

Case for (with win)

William & Mary would move to 8-4 with a win over Richmond. A win over Maine, another team on the bubble, would be William & Mary’s claim to fame in conversations about who should get one of the final spots. Using that win, the Tribe sneak into the playoffs.

Case against (with win)

At 8-4 William & Mary’s strength of schedule would be outside of the top 60, paling in comparison to other eight-win teams. Losses to at-large teams like Villanova and New Hampshire won’t help William & Mary’s case either, since that already puts them as the fifth-best CAA team. If Maine loses, that would mean the Tribe will not have defeated any team with a record above .500. The strength of schedule keeps William & Mary on the outside looking in.

North Dakota

Case for (with loss)

North Dakota might only have seven wins with a loss to South Dakota State, but it would have the No. 4 strength of schedule. The Fighting Hawks would have a win over Youngstown State and none of their losses to Kansas State, Montana, South Dakota and North Dakota State would have been by more than five points. If it comes down to a resume comparison of seven loss teams, few will have a resume like North Dakota.

Case against (with loss)

North Dakota would only have seven wins if it loses its last game. The Fighting Hawks also will have lost three of its last four. While UND would have a head-to-head win over Youngstown State, they might have one fewer win. With other bubble teams also having eight wins, it’ll be hard for North Dakota to overcome a deficiency in the win column.

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South Dakota State

Case for (with loss)

South Dakota State might have lost five straight games, but the Jackrabbits will still have seven wins. Of those wins, Montana State stands out as arguably the best win among all bubble teams. When adding in wins over potential playoff teams like Sacramento State, Drake and Youngstown State, South Dakota’s 7-0 start is hard to ignore. A strong start to the season gets South Dakota State into the playoffs despite a season-ending losing streak.

Case against (with loss)

South Dakota State will have lost five straight games. Regardless of who was playing at quarterbacks in that game, a team in a downward spiral won’t make the playoffs.

Youngstown State

Case for (with win)

Youngstown State will be 8-4 with just three FCS losses if it closes the season with a win. The Penguins will have wins over Illinois State and Southern Illinois as resume boosters, while losing by only one possession to South Dakota State and North Dakota State. An eight-win team out of the MVFC is getting into the playoffs.

Case against (with win)

Even if Youngstown State finishes with eight wins, it’ll have head-to-head losses to South Dakota State and North Dakota. One of those teams will have seven wins. The head-to-head loss could be enough to put the South Dakota State-North Dakota loser in over the Penguins.

Gardner-Webb

Case for (with win)

Gardner-Webb would be 8-4 with just two FCS losses. The Runnin’ Bulldogs would be 8-2 against the FCS with a strength of schedule in the top 50. That’s a solid playoff resume.

Case against (with win)

Gardner-Webb’s best win would be over Western Carolina, with no wins coming over a team with a record above .500. While Gardner-Webb’s strength of schedule might be top 50, the lack of quality wins keeps the Runnin’ Bulldogs out, especially if both UT Martin and Tennessee Tech get in.

Southeastern Louisiana

Case for (with win)

If Southeastern Louisiana beats Nicholls, the Lions will be 9-1 vs. the FCS this season. Even though Southeastern Louisiana will have beaten just one team with a winning record this year, a nine-FCS-win team is hard to leave out.

Case against (with win)

Southeastern Louisiana has beaten only one FCS team with a winning record this year. Nine wins are impressive, but the win column loses its luster when you beat a bunch of subpar teams. That keeps the Lions as one of the first teams out.

Austin Peay

Case for (with win)

Austin Peay would be 8-4 with an FBS win and a season-ending win over Tarleton State. A loss to a 4-7 Eastern Kentucky team is bad, but otherwise the Governors have wins that speak for themselves. That should be enough to get an eight-win team into the playoffs.

Case for (with loss)

With a loss, Austin Peay would be 7-5 with four FCS losses. However, the Governors would have an FBS win — which is a win with quality that few other seven-win — or even eight-win — teams can match. That could be the boost Austin Peay needs to be one of the last teams in.

Case against (with loss)

Austin Peay would have four FCS losses, and while the Governors have an FBS win, they would be no higher than the fourth-best team in the UAC. That’s not going to cut it and Austin Peay misses out.

Sacred Heart

Case for (with a win)

If Sacred Heart beats a top-10 Villanova team to close the season, it would be 9-3 with losses to potentially the Patriot, NEC and Big Sky champions. The Pioneers could potentially have wins over the MEAC and CAA champions. Two quality wins and three quality losses for an eight-FCS-win team might be enough for Sacred Heart to overcome its strength of schedule.

Case against (with a win)

Sacred Heart would be 9-3, but its win against Virginia Lynchburg cuts that down to 8-3. The Pioneers have only the 107th best strength of schedule. That strength of schedule keeps out the Pioneers.